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Challenges of the Earth Science Vision Earth-Space Technology Initiative Dennis J. Andrucyk dennis.andrucyk@gsfc.nasa.go

Challenges of the Earth Science Vision Earth-Space Technology Initiative Dennis J. Andrucyk dennis.andrucyk@gsfc.nasa.gov (301)286-2542 October 20, 1998. What We Propose.

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Challenges of the Earth Science Vision Earth-Space Technology Initiative Dennis J. Andrucyk dennis.andrucyk@gsfc.nasa.go

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  1. Challenges of the Earth Science VisionEarth-Space Technology InitiativeDennis J. Andrucykdennis.andrucyk@gsfc.nasa.gov(301)286-2542October 20, 1998

  2. What We Propose A revolutionary new technology initiative is required to enhance terrestrial forecasting and enable space weather understanding and prediction Five technology advancement areas • New vantage points • Satellite constellations • New sensor capabilities • Intelligent systems • Information transfer

  3. Why? • The sphere of the human environment continues to expand beyond our planet • Global population • Dependence on space-based systems • Permanent presence of humans in Earth orbit and beyond • Exploring the galaxy for life and habitability of planets • Current technology limitations impede our progress in achieving affordable advances

  4. What are we looking for? New cross-enterprise technologies that provide . . . Agility • Respond quickly to new questions or new events • Re-optimize systems to target newly identified important concerns or events • Change and improve systems as we learn and technology improves without losing our current investments • Start small and grow by adding new or by including existing components • Provide far more capability within a reasonable budget; better return on investment Adaptability Evolvability Scalability Affordability

  5. Benefits to Earth Weather 2023 Goals • New and unique vantage points • Integrated self-adapting models • Chemical, biological, physical processes • Land, ocean, and atmosphere • Solar • Anthropogenic • Forecast to the limits of chaos • Precipitation, tornadoes, hurricanes and lightning • Interactive “what if” scenarios • Real-time updates and distribution of personalized forecasts to users • Global nowcasting 1998 Capabilities • Limited observations • Statistical; non-interactive modeling • Post storm data fusion • Analysis and distribution of storm behavior after-the-fact • Path and severity forecasts

  6. Benefits to Space Weather 2023 1998 Goals • Predict when a geo-effective event will occur and warn of severity level • Predict and quantify high radiation dose flares • Assess what the next cycle will yield with respect to scale height and spacecraft orbit drag • Understand and predict solar events that effect the magnetosphere and subsequent impact to Earth • Understand and predict space weather at the same level as Earth weather Capabilities • Observe flares and coronal mass ejections that may impact Earth • Recognize solar maximum’s increase in atmospheric scale height and decrease of spacecraft orbit life • Recognize Sun influences on magnetosphere and in turn the magnetosphere effects Earth atmosphere and surface systems • Recognize solar wind effects • High and low speed streams • Shock fronts • Magnetic field polarity changes

  7. Linkage to Astrobiology 2023 1998 Goals • Investigate habitability of solar system • Solar variability • Changes in planets ability to support life • Protection against radiation • External hazards (asteroid or cometary impacts) • Understanding of terrestrial ecosystem to understand planetary environments (comparative planetology) ScienceQuestions • How do ecosystems respond to environmental changes on time-scales relevant to human civilization? • What is the potential for survival, adaptation, and biological evolution beyond the home planet? • How are biological evolution and the development of planetary environment related?

  8. Architectural Features • LEO/MEO/HEO • Sensor Web • Programmable Sensors • • Reconfigurable Satellites and Constellations • • Calsats GEO Event Weather Monitors • Very Large Synthetic Aperture Radiometers • Large Aperture Imagers and Sounders • Event Monitors Earth/Space Weather Outposts and Sensor Web (L1-L2, HEO and Solar Orbits) • L1/L2 and Post • Magnetosphere Constellation • Operational Solar Event Warning System Advanced Information Systems • High Bandwidth Communication • Database-in-the-Sky • Direct to User Data Products • Very Large Distributed Libraries and Data Archives • Intelligent Software Agents • Immersive Interactive Cognitive Human/Machine Environment

  9. Key Cross-Enterprise Technologies • New Vantage Points • Large deployable systems (e.g. solar sails) • Satellite Constellations • Compact spacecraft • Miniaturized instruments • Reconfigurable Sensing • Multi-dimensional parameters • Synthetic • Aperture • Hyperspectral • Intelligent Interoperability • Neural processing • Fully autonomous systems • Information Web • High-speed communication (spacecraft/spacecraft and spacecraft/ground) • Intelligent agents • On-board processing • Immersive environments • Integrated life cycle simulation

  10. Large Ultra-lightweight Deployable Structures 10,000 0.001 Solar Sails .01 4.5 LY in 40 yrs Interstellar Flyby Mission 1000 0.1 Comet sample return Europa landers Mars sample return RF Apertures L1 Surface Winds Specific Mass kg/ m2 Structure size (m2) 1 100 300m GEO Synthetic Aperture Radiometer Soil moisture and winds Mercury Orbiter Solar Polar Imager Non-Keplerian Earth Orbits 10 Ultra-lightweight Precision Optical Aperture High Resolution Libration Point Earth Imager LEO Synthetic Aperture Soil moisture and surface winds Geostorm Warning Demonstration Missions 10 100 Extrasolar Planet Spectrometer Extrasolar Planet Imager 5 10 15 20 25 Years Radical advances in ultra-large, ultra-lightweight deployable structures causes paradigm shifts to enable frontier science

  11. Y l X Complete 4D + time • All wavelengths, X-ray to infrared • Excellent spatial, wavelength and time resolution Capabilities Advanced New Technology • x y I (t) with good energy separation over limited wavelengths • Ultraviolet • Isolate specific emission lines at many wavelengths within a specified band of 100 to 800A 4D + time New Technology • x y I (t) with some energy separation 1 1/4D + time CCD Arrays • x y I (t) 3D + time 5 10 15 20 25 Years Detector Technology

  12. 5 kg 10 kg Pico Observatory • Many 100s per constellation • Fully autonomous • Advanced maneuverability • <$100K each Mass Nano Observatory • 10s to 100s per constellation • Limited autonomy and maneuverability • <$500K each 100 kg Micro Observatory • Few per constellation • Limited Interoperability • <$1M each 5 10 15 20 25 Years Compact Spacecraft Revolutionize the scientific investigations of Space Science and Earth Science enterprises by creating new generations of high performance integrated spacecraft/instrument which are dramatically lighter, compact, and less cost

  13. Light Bundles 109 106 Optical Neural Web • Intercommunicating • Neural processors • 106 Gops Synapse Giga-operations/second Opto-Neural Nets • 16 Gb Synapse 16 3-D, I.C., 4K Synapse 5 10 15 20 25 Years Synapse = Connection between 2 or more neural cells Neural Processing

  14. 50 km vert 10 km horz 100 m vert 20 km horz Resolution Most of Globe • Microwave Synthetic Aperture • Programmable filter, active sensor • Active dynamic range lidar 250 m vert 50 km horz Partial Globe • LIDAR • Radio ocultation • Hyperspectral 5 10 15 20 25 Years Reconfigurable Sensing

  15. EARTH ROTATION Desired Path ORBITAL MOTION Flight Path Autonomous Constellation Control • Intelligent “discovery” • Autonomous retasking of assets Capabilities Burn Path Autonomous Formation Flying • Coordination of multiple constellations • Replenishment capability Formation Flying • Autonomous orbit adjust • Precision formation flying • Up to 10 spacecraft flying autonomously 5 10 15 20 25 Years Fully Autonomous Systems

  16. Reconfigurable computing Storage Capacity 1 Pb 1T 100 Tb 10M Number of Gates 1 Tb 1M Pix 5 10 15 20 25 Years Onboard Processing • Holographic; photorefractive • Distributed RAM-FPGA • Interoperable processing among spacecraft and DBs • Direct delivery to user • Improved manufacturing/ packaging process • $5K/Tb • Miniaturized, 3D packaging • 2 Gb stacks • Low power, mass, volume • $1K/Gb • RAM-FPGA farm • Advanced onboard processing; algorithm uploads • User selectable formats • Direct delivery to user • RAM-FPGA farm • Basic onboard processing and data compression • Pre-defined formats/protocols • COTS/DMBS • Direct delivery to user Order of magnitude increase in storage capacity and number of field programmable gates, while reducing cost to provide onboard information processing and product delivery to user

  17. 10 Gbps Data rate 7 Gbps Network in Space • Direct network access by users • Bandwidth on demand • Interactive sensor web Active Space/Space Optical • 6 - 8 Gbps; 5 kg • Crosslink to commercial comm constellation Passive Optical • 10 - 100 Mbps; <I kg Advanced Network Protocols 2 Gbps Active Space/Ground Optical • 1.5 Gbps; 15 kg Ka • Direct to user • Up to 600 Mbps; 10 kg 5 10 15 20 25 Years Inter-spacecraft High-Speed Communication

  18. Capabilities 5 10 15 20 25 Years Intelligent Agents Onboard Agents • Event anticipation • Distributed tasking of sensor webs Research Agents • Autonomous information mining and prospecting • Intelligent tasking of sensors and information web Onboard Monitoring Agents • Event recognition • Autonomous scheduling Research Agents • Active & passive data mining • Active & passive data prospecting • Self adapting/learning • Carries users credentials Onboard Monitoring Agents • Automated cloud cover assessment • Limited scheduling Research Agents • Active data mining • Active data prospecting • Multilingual Increasing intelligence and autonomy of agents to carry out operational activities

  19. Holographic Virtual Reality • 10Ms of concurrent events • Independent development • Ms of firmware elements Independent Control • Independent search and access • Information fusion Capabilities Interactive Virtual Reality • 10Ks of concurrent events • Collaborative development • Thousands of firmware elements Independent Monitoring • Collaborative-directed access • Advanced data fusion Limited Virtual Reality • 100s of concurrent events • Intelligent compiling • 10s of firmware elements Intelligent Guidance • User-directed search and access • Limited data fusion 5 10 15 20 25 Years Immersive Environment Increasing immersive environment capabilities (e.g., VR, concurrent users, data fusion control) for scientific, applications and advanced engineering purposes

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