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Detailed analysis of visibility data and emissions sources in Chiricahua NM & WA, with glide slope modeling results and visibility projections for 2018. Includes baseline conditions and annual extinction results. Access full report at the provided source link.
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Reasonable Progress:Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area Implementation Workgroup Meeting San Diego, California April 17 – 19, 2007
Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area • Overview of Chiricahua NM & WA • Monitoring/Baseline Conditions • Annual Average • 20% Worst Visibility Days • Emissions & Source Apportionment • Sources • Species • Reasonable Progress/Modeling • Model Performance • Modeling Results • Visibility Projections • Summary
Arizona Class One Areas Source: http://www.epa.gov/region09/air/maps/az_clss1.html
Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area 2km Terrain Map 20km Terrain Map The Chiricahua Wilderness is located south of the Chiricahua National Monument. The IMRPOVE monitor is located west of the National Monument. Source: WRAP Causes of Haze Website (http://coha.dri.edu)
Glide Slope Annual Average (in dv) Baseline Conditions: 8.75 dv Natural Conditions: 4.0 dv
Annual Light Extinction Results show particle extinction. The baseline extinction is 15.44 Mm -1.
Glide Slope for 20% Worst Days (in dv) Baseline = 13.43 dv; Natural Conditions = 7.2 dv
Baseline Extinction Budget Visibility impairment on worst days is mostly attributed to sulfates, coarse mass, fine soil, and organic carbon.
Baseline Species – Time Series This shows extinction for all species for each year of the baseline period.
Average 20% Worst Day Composition(baseline ’00 – ‘04) Light Extinction (Mm -1) Source: Chart made from spreadsheet posted at: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
Average 20% Best Day Composition (baseline ’00 – ’04) Light Extinction (Mm -1) Source: Chart made from spreadsheet posted at: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
Species Glide Slope – Worst 20% This shows the baseline and glide slope by species.
Upwind Residence Time on 20% Worst Visibility Days (2000-04) Highest values are located in southern Arizona, west Sonora, Baja California Norte, and north Chihuahua.
Sources Located Near Chiricahua • Point Sources • Douglas Power Plant; Douglas, AZ • Apache Station (AEPCO); Wilcox, AZ • Apache Nitrogen; St. David, AZ • Chemical Lime; Paul Spur, AZ • Area Sources • Vehicle Emissions: highways, unpaved roads, recreational areas • Other Sources • Naco Dump: 40 miles south of wilderness area near Naco, Mexico
Source Apportionment for Sulfate (SO4) The left column shows 2002 (plan02c) and the right column shows 2018 (base18b) for each state and region. PSAT results indicate that sources in Arizona, Mexico, CENRAP, EUS, and pacific off-shore are the largest contributors.
Arizona SOx Emissions Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter
Source Apportionment for Nitrate (NO3) The left column shows 2002 (plan02c) and the right column shows 2018 (base 18b) for each state and region. The largest contributors of nitrate are Arizona and California. Sources from CENRAP, Mexico, New Mexico, and pacific off-shore are also likely to contribute to nitrate.
Arizona NOx Emissions Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter
Arizona OC Emissions Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter
Weighted Emissions Potential – Coarse Particulate Matter (CM)
Model Performance The left points are modeled data and the right points are from IMPROVE.
Visibility Projections – NO3 This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Visibility Projections – SO4 This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Visibility Projections - OMC This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Visibility Projections - EC This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Visibility Projections – CM This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Visibility Projections – Soil This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Summary • Largest Contributors to Visibility Impairment in Chiricahua • Sulfates • Coarse Mass, Fine Soil • Organic Carbon
Continuing Progress • Continuing Analysis of Chiricahua • Additional WRAP Products (e.g. CoDust) • Local Emission Inventories (e.g. Douglas/Agua Prieta) • Nonattainment/Maintenance Area Plans • Local analysis (FLM, Tribal) • Impact from BART and other non-BART • Microscale Modeling????