CCFP

1. COLLABORATIVE CONVECTIVE FORECAST PRODUCT CCFP TRAINING SPRING 2005 NWA Edited Version

2. Module Objectives • Purpose & Overview of CCFP • Identify strengths and weaknesses, and what the product can and can not do • Identify the upcoming changes for 2005 convective season ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

3. Purpose & Overview of CCFP • PURPOSE • Support Air Traffic Management (ATM) Efforts • Reduce Traffic Flow Disruptions • Purpose Details • Attempts to create a common situational awareness to improve coordination & cooperation among participants • Embraced by FAA & US airline industry as cornerstone of severe wx planning for US Airspace operations ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

4. CCFP: General Overview • Collaboration • CCFP is developed through a collaboration process between meteorologists • CCFP Product • 3 forecast maps w/ lead times of 2, 4 & 6 hours • Strategic Planning Tool • 2 to 6 hour time frame • Planning Telcon Tool • All stakeholders have agreed that the CCFP is the primary weather forecast product for strategic planning on the Planning TELCON ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

5. CCFP: What it is not • CCFP does not fcst all convective activity • CCFP areas are not ‘no-fly zones’ • CCFP not tactical (0-2 hrs) decision-aids • There are other convective products that can be used for tactical decision making • National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) • Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) • Thunderstorm TP Messages • Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) • Single Site & Mosaic Wx radar Images • Severe Weather Warnings • (Details on this issue in Disp. March class) ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

6. CCFP: 2005 Overview • No Change From 2004 • Same Daily Production • Updated every 2 hrs, except Midnite Central Time • Same Variables • Coverage, Confidence, Tops, Growth & Movement • Same Geographical Coverage • Cover the lower 48 states (March through October) • Southern Ontario & Quebec (April through Sept.) • Main Change for 2005 • Look of the Graphics ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

7. Canadian CCFP • March & Oct 2005 - No Canada • April – Sept. 2005 - Yes Canada ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

8. OLD (Pre 2005) CCFP FORMAT ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

9. New CCFP - Nat’l Wx Srvc AWC site March & Oct 2005 - No Canada ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

10. New CCFP - Nat’l Wx Srvc AWC site April – Sept. 2005 - Yes Canada ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

11. New 2005 TSD CCFP Graphic ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

12. Why Change the Graphic? • Address Perception • To mitigate previous perception of “no-fly zones” • Increase Quick Glance Value • A more intuitive display of info • Traffic manager decipher the fcst w/ more ease • How Was New Graphic Developed? • Human Factors Experts were consulted • Using fill to indicate coverage density of fcst convection & • New color changes for forecaster confidence of occurrence ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

13. The Change Brings Benefit • Less restrictions through areas of low confidence and low coverage • less fill should yield more capacity • A “quick glance value” of the forecast • User can immediately interpret fcster’s high confidence of occurrence represented by color • TMC decision making process quicker & easier • by focusing on the traffic management decision and not deciphering the forecast • Polygon color change • mitigate confusion on TSD between other similar products used by FAA traffic managers ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

14. New 2005 CCFP on AWC siteReview Image Detail ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

15. Confidence (CONF) • Confidence value is identified by color in one of 2 classes: • Low: 25 - 49% • High: 50 - 100% • Confidence level is the subjective forecaster confidence in the occurrence of the minimum threshold criteria: at least 3,000 sq. mi area with coverage greater than 25%, and echo tops greater than 25,000 ft. (GRAY) (BLUE) Forecaster Confidence of Occurrence ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

16. CCFP Coverage Criteria Coverage (CVRG): Identify by degree of fill in one of 3 categories for areas: • Low 25-49% (Sparse Fill) • Med 50-74% (Medium Fill) • High 75-100% (Solid Fill) • Solid line of convection (Purple) ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

17. CCFP Coverage Area Criteria, cont. • Sparse Fill • Mostly SCT TSTMS predicted to cover 25-49% of the area. Possible line(s) of TSTMS. (old low) • Medium Fill • Forecast to be 50-74% of the area & may include short lines or clusters. Often associated with weather fronts or tropical systems. (old medium) • Solid Fill • Coverage is dense, 75% or > and usually includes lines and clusters. (old high) • Lines • Nearly solid lines of convective activity. (no change) ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

18. Coverage Criteria Points to Remember • An area of convection w/ coverage less than 25%, or a single cell, will not be fcst on CCFP • but may still impact the airspace, • but is normally handled as a tactical issue • Criteria for an area of convection on the CCFP • at least 3,000 sq. mi area with • coverage greater than 25%, of • echo tops greater than 25,000 ft. • Coverage is NOT chance of tstrm dvlpment, • but percent of area covered by convective activity ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

19. CCFP Interpretation - 1 ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

20. CCFP Interpretation - 2 ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

21. CCFP Interpretation - 3 ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

22. TOPS: 370+ GWTH: NC CONF: LOW CVRG: 75-100% CCFP Data Block DATA BLOCK ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

23. Note: MOVEMENT Indicated on graphic for each polygon and line as an arrow (showing direction) and a number (showing speed in kts) CCFP Movement ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

24. TOPS: 370+ GWTH: NC CONF: LOW CVRG: 75-100% CCFP Tops Criteria: TOPS : • 3 Options: Echo tops within the forecast area are reported in the following three categories: • 25,000-31,000 feet MSL • 31,000-37,000 feet MSL • Above 37,000 • This Exampe Echo top of Above 37,000 feet Mean Sea Level (MSL), are expected to cover at least 25% of the forecast area ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

25. GWTH (Avg. growth rate of area/tops): • Growth of TSTM is three dimensional • Growth rate changes over period of time • Legend indicators: TOPS: 370+ GWTH: NC CONF: LOW CVRG: 75-100% ++ Fast, Positive Growth + Moderate Growth NC No Change - Negative Growth (Area/Tops Decreasing) CCFP Growth ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

26. 2005 CCFP Schedule Issued 11 Times per day = Every 2 hrs except Midnite Central Time Note: UTC is +6 hours ahead of Central time before Daylight Savings (April 3, 2005), and +5 hours ahead of Central time during Daylight Savings ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

27. CCFP DATA VERIFICATION • CCFP metrics and their explanation can be found on the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) website that include: • Forecasts compared to actual weather • Daily statistical results • Overall accuracy http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/conv/archive_ccfp/index.html ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

28. CONCLUSIONS • CCFP intended as a long range (2-6 hour) strategic forecast not as a tactical tool • The graphic was changed give Industry & FAA Traffic managers a quick glance overview of the weather forecast • Confidence is Color • Low 25-49% • High 50-100% (GRAY) (BLUE) ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

29. CONCLUSIONS • Coverage is Fill • Low 25-49% (Sparse Fill) • Med 50-74% (Medium Fill) • High 75-100% (Solid Fill) • CVRG is the percentage of area coverage NOT the chance of thunderstorm (TSTM) development ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch