First survey on scenarios potentially addressable in each study area ARPA Veneto, Lead Partner

1. First survey on scenarios potentially addressable in each study area ARPA Veneto, Lead Partner Francesca Liguori 2° Partners meeting - Barcelona, 14th January 2010

2. Why a survey on scenariosat this point of the Working Time Table? data collection & elaboration measurements models planning policies meeting

3. Scenarios • Definition (different background and terminology between modellers and planners) • A risk: expectations on scenarios not achievable for the type of emission inventory built • Survey’s result: no scenario already chosen

4. The ideal flow Update of local emissions inventories Identification of the risk activities and vulnerability systems benchmarking Source Apportionment by Receptor models &CTMs Design of scenarios measurements planning policies

5. Some real examples The off-shore terminal for Venetian harbour (platform about 10 kms off-shore for larger ships ) Is it possible to quantify the number and the type of vessels that will arrive to this platform instead of reaching the current inner harbour? Electrification of the quays Is it possible to quantify the stationary emissions spared from vessels at the berth? Are these type of emissions already considered in the emission inventory? What data are necessary for this quantification? Different modalities for good handling Typology of source not considered in the current Venetian Emission Inventory 5

6. Scenarios in ’s Application Form Working Plan Design of scenarios supporting coast development strategies Scenarios increase the territorial knowledge framework & provide indications to undertake environmental-addressed actions to identify objectives & interventions towards mitigation strategies as drivers for the sustainable eco-environmental growth of coast areas. Scenarios coming for the model will give, each territory, indication on the system sensibility with reference to a) several human & Industrial activities developed in port site areas; b) meteorological/weather conditions. Results of the model application should reveal the impact of pollution in terms of economic development, urban settlement directives, infrastructural setting, cultural heritage in those coastal areas influenced by the presence of ports, providing inter-sectorial local scenarios 5.4 Summaryofdeliverables Set of scenarios of interventions (one per project area). The scenarios will be connected with possible mitigation measures and control strategies that could be adopted allowing the urban development and economic growth and the improvement of the air quality of the port-city. 6

7. Preliminary results of CAMx simulation Estimation of Harbour effects on air quality in Venice elaboration by Silvia Pillon – ARPAV ORAR • Currently: • - CALMET (local meteo network data and radiosoudings) • CAMX 5.1 (CB05 and Coarse-Fine Aerosol chemistry) • Regional Emission Inventory 2005 + Biogenic emissions • 4x4 km2 resolution on extent domain of 200x168 km2 without nest • For APICE simulation: • - LAMI (local model) • CAMX 5.3 (CB05 and Coarse-Fine Aerosol resolution) • Regional Emission Inventory 2008 + Biogenic emissions + sea salt (Blown dust?) • 4x4 km2 resolution on extent domain of 260x240 km2, nest over study area mesh 4 (? 8) • revision of COV profile for harbour activities emissions from receptor models results?

8. From analysis on previous runs: • Overestimation of NO2 annual mean over Venice area in respect to other sites in the modelling domain  could it depend on inputting harbors emissions at ground level? • Effect of harbour on PM10 results on Venice area: about 10-20%, mainly from organic and primary aerosolcomponents. • Even if results of PSAT on RGN and SO2 show a significant influence of harbour activities, on PM10 secondary inorganic component we obtain a pour influence of harbour emissions. • 4. Emission scenarios based on NOx and SO2 reductions can be scarcely visible on PM10 (PM2.5) levels RGN Reactive gaseous nitrogen including primary NOx (NO + NO2) emissions plus nitrate radical (NO3), nitrous acid (HONO) and dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5).

9. Current emission inventory Harbour emissions

10. PSAT results on Venice site receptor winter scenario: 15 Jan – 15 Feb; summer scenario: 15 Jul -15 Aug

11. PM10 composition In Winter and Summer at a Venice site

12. Source Apportionment for Reactive Gaseous Nitrogen and Sulfur dioxide

13. Scenarios in ’s Application Form 2 • The expected LOCAL TANGIBLE RESULTS are • VENETO: planning guidance to drive port-district expansion (and its connection with the northeast transport poles) in the frame of the Regional Masterplan & coastal plans + promotion of agreements to mitigate emissions of docked-vessels in front of Venice • GENOA: environmental assessment of the coal power plant in view of a future electrification of the quays & effects of an off-shore displacement of part of the oil terminal + evaluation of the design of new highway / railway links from the western part of the harbour (dedicated to the containers handling) to the Po Valley. • MARSEILLE: application of APICE inputs & scenarios to support a new project of setting electric power ground supply terminal within the strategic Plan of the Port Authority and inclusion of APICE deliverables in atmospheric, urban and health protection plan of PACA region • THESSALONIKI: roadmap for the improvement of the efficiency of the Region of Central Macedonia in urban development planning for eastern Thessaloniki city and implementing environmental policies in order to improve the citizens’ quality of life • - BARCELONA: guidance for reduction of 20 % of NO2 and of 10 % of PM10 emissions from the port, in the light of the Plan for Air Quality Improvement of the Port & inputs to drive train transport projects 13