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The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements

The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements. Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe, Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter, Joseph Vaughan, and Brian Lamb Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Washington State University.

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The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements

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  1. The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe, Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter, Joseph Vaughan, and Brian Lamb Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Washington State University

  2. Tomorrow’s Air Quality: AIRPACT-3 Daily Forecast System • MM5(3.7.3) numerical mesoscale meteorological model • SMOKE(2.1): Sparse Matrix Operating Kernal for Emissions processing. • CMAQ (4.6): Community Multi-scale Air Quality model: • SAPRC-99 O3 & toxics chemistry • Aerosol (ver.4) in Aitken, accumulation, & coarse modes • Deposition of N, S, O3, & Hg species • 12 km x 12 km grid cells, 21 layers • Forecast to 64 hours daily PM species Nitrates Sulfates Organic aerosols Wind-Blown Dust (soon) PM2.5 total mass

  3. Gridded Emissions AIRPACT-3 Dynamic Emissions & IC/BC 2005 anthropogenic emissions (SMOKE) Updated Biogenic Emission Model (BEIS3) MM5/MCIP Meteorology from UW Weather Forecast System WSU Dairy NH3 Emissions Module Wild and Prescribed Fire Emissions (from BlueSky system) Dynamic Boundary Conditions: spatial & temporal variations from MOZART monthly diurnal average profiles CMAQ Daisy-chain Initial Conditions

  4. AIRPACT3, July, 2006 Ozone and Biogenic SOA Formation http://www.airpact-3.wsu.edu

  5. Retrospective long term evaluationAug – Nov, 2004(coincident with Columbia Gorge Visibility Monitoring program) • 8 hr daily maximum O3 • 24 hr daily maximum PM2.5 • Speciated PM2.5

  6. MM5 forecast performance results GFS initialization, CCM2 radiation scheme, Reisner-2 moisture microphysics parameterization, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization and the MRF/Hong-Pan planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme

  7. Daily maximum 8 hr ozone results P/O vs Observed Timing errors (running 8 hr means)

  8. Bias and error maps for Aug-Sept daily maximum 8 hr ozone Normalized mean bias Normalized mean error

  9. Ranked daily maximum 8 hr ozone for selected sites (Aug/Sept, 2004)

  10. 24 hr PM2.5 Performance Time Series

  11. Ranked speciated PM2.5 observations and predictions

  12. Initial evaluation results • Ozone 8 hr daily maxima • NMB = 6% and NME = 17% • Peak values correctly estimated • PM2.5 24 hr daily maxima • Daily FB range: -75% to +75%, mean FB = 3% • Daily FE range: 3% to 79%, mean FE = 50% • Speciated PM2.5 • Good match with NO3 observations • Split decision for NH4: Gorge sites underestimated • SO4 underestimated • OC and EC overestimated at peak levels (associated with wildfires)

  13. Enhancements to Airpact-3Wildfire emissions exported to Airpact-3 from the Forest Service BlueSky System BlueSky fire locations & size Predicted PM2.5 from fires SMOKE emissions processing for CMAQ

  14. Enhancement of Airpact using satellite dataOMI-Aura Satellite Retrievals and AIRPACT-3 for NO2 U.S. retrieval AIRPACT-3

  15. OMI (American) OMI (Dutch) Urban NO2 along the I-5 corridor: OMI-AURA and Airpact AIRPACT

  16. Collaborators & Acknowledgements • Collaborating research groups • USDA – Forest Service Don McKenzie & Sim Larkin • USDA – NRCS Susan O’Neill • Funding sources • NW-Airquest Consortium • NASA ROSES Decision Support System grant

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