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Understanding Non-Treaty Storage Agreement Operations

Learn about the commercial agreement between BC Hydro and Bonneville Power Administration, modifications to operations, and scenarios related to non-treaty storage. Explore the system modeling and climate change definitions involved in managing reservoir storage volumes.

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Understanding Non-Treaty Storage Agreement Operations

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  1. NON-TREATY STORAGE AGREEMENT “Introduction to Operations and the Non Treaty Storage Scenarios” Presenter: Jim Gaspard

  2. Content: • Overview of Treaty/Non-Treaty • Modifications to Operation • Supplemental Agreements • Non-Treaty Storage Operations • Non-Treaty Scenarios • System Modeling • Modeling Output • Climate Change

  3. Definitions - Flow • Flow: • cfs: cubic feet per second • kcfs: 1000’s of cubic feet per second. • Mica Unit discharge: 11 kcfs. • Revelstoke Unit discharge: 15 kcfs.

  4. Definitions - Volume • Reservoir Storage Volume: • MAF: Million Acre Feet. Volume of water in 1 million acres, 1 foot thick. • 504 kcfs flowing for a 24 hr period • Top 10 feet at Kinbasket • Top 8 feet at Arrow

  5. WHAT IS THE NON-TREATY STORAGE AGREEMENT?A commercial agreement between BC Hydro and Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) that provides further coordination of Kinbasket and Arrow reservoir, beyond that which is provided by the Columbia River Treaty. Non-Treaty Storage Agreement

  6. Treaty vs. Non-Treaty Treaty: International Treaty Entities: BC Hydro (BCH), Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and the US Army Corp of Engineers (COE) 15.5 million acre feet (MAF) of storage operated under a set of rules (at Mica, Arrow, and Duncan) Non-Treaty Storage Agreement: Bilateral agreement between BCH and BPA An enabling agreement that provides for up to 5 MAF of storage operated by mutual agreement (at Mica, but also impacts Arrow) 6

  7. Storage at Mica and Arrow Kinbasket Reservoir Unusable Storage (8.0 MAF) Arrow Reservoir 1 MAF = top 10 feet at Kinbasket 1 MAF = top 8 feet at Arrow 7

  8. Treaty Operations (modeled): Kinbasket Reservoir 2472 feet 2386 feet 2360 feet Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements, and Mica Flexibility.

  9. Treaty Operations (modeled): Arrow Reservoir Flood Control Elevation 1437 feet 1413 feet 1403 feet Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements, and Mica Flexibility.

  10. Treaty Operations (modeled): Arrow Releases Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements, and Mica Flexibility.

  11. Modifications to OperationsSupplemental Agreements

  12. Supplemental Agreements • A mutual agreement between BCH and BPA/COE to: • Adjust the level of storage in a reservoir, or • Adjust flows at Arrow • Purpose: • To increase power benefits, and • Improve the non-power outcome in Mica and/or Arrow.

  13. Summer Storage Agreement (2006)

  14. Modifications to OperationsNon-Treaty Storage Operations

  15. Non-Treaty Storage – Fall/Winter Draft Storage Operation- Initial - • Summer: Treaty storage typically filled to at/near full Mica Discharge Arrow Discharge

  16. Non-Treaty Storage – Fall/Winter Draft Storage Operation- Winter Draft - • Late Winter Treaty storage drafted to near empty. Mica Discharge Still significant water at Kinbasket. Arrow Discharge

  17. Non-Treaty Storage Seasonal Operation Storage Operation- Utilize Flex - • BCH can draft more than Specified Treaty Q from Mica (Flex). Mica Discharge Flood Control Elevation Still significant water at Kinbasket. Arrow Discharge

  18. Non-Treaty Storage Seasonal Operation Storage Operation- NTSA Release - • NTSA release facilitates greater draft at Mica Mica Discharge+NT Discharge Flood Control Elevation Draft benefit of NTSA Arrow Discharge+ NT Discharge

  19. Non-Treaty Scenarios

  20. Modeling Process

  21. Non-Treaty Storage Utilization Scenarios Four different strategies for utilizing Non-Treaty Storage: • Scenario A: High Potential Utilization (4.5 MAF Max) • Scenario B: Mod Potential Utilization (3.0 MAF Max) • Scenario C: Low Potential Utilization (2.0 MAF Max) • Scenario D: No Utilization

  22. Non-Treaty Storage Utilization Scenarios • Scenario A: (4.5 MAF max utilization) • Approximates operation of Non-Treaty Storage under the 1990 Agreement • Provides similar flexibility to that which was modeled in the Columbia Water Use Plan 22

  23. Non-Treaty Storage Utilization Scenarios • Scenario B: (3.0 MAF max utilization) • BPA proposed operation • Flexibility for release of additional water in summer to aid salmon out-migration in the US Columbia • 0.5 MAF release in May/June during dry years • Return of storage in upcoming year (if above average inflows) 23

  24. Non-Treaty Storage Utilization Scenarios • Scenario C: (2.0 MAF max utilization) • Restrictive operation of Non-Treaty Storage • Considered to be low end volume that will: • Facilitate fall/winter draft at Kinbasket to serve system load. • Facilitate key fisheries/power benefit in spring/summer, and • Provide flexibility to manage Kinbasket Reservoir, in exceptionally high inflow years. 24

  25. Non-Treaty Storage Utilization Scenarios • Scenario D: (no utilization of NTS) • Approximates operation that would be dictated by the Treaty 25

  26. Scenario A (4.5 MAF Maximum Utilized) BCH Non-Treaty Storage (Additional draft at Mica + Arrow due to release of Non-Treaty Storage) 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Average: 14 feet Additional Draft (MAF) Outlier: 30 feet

  27. Scenario C (2.0 MAF Maximum Utilized) BCH Non-Treaty Storage (Additional draft at Mica + Arrow due to release of Non-Treaty Storage) 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Average: 10 feet Additional Draft (MAF) Outlier: 20 feet 27

  28. System Modeling

  29. Modeling Process

  30. System Modeling Overview System modeling: Using standard computer models used in BC Hydro long term planning. HYSIM (60 year, monthly time-step simulation) GOM (10 year, bi-hourly simulation) Outputs: Revelstoke Release and Reservoir 30

  31. System Modeling Overview Modeling provides: Economic optimal operation of BC Hydro system, given constraints. Modeling does not provide: Wind integration impacts to operations Operational adjustments that may be made to manage non-power issues, including: Managing flood control events. Enhancing Arrow Soft Constraints or other system objectives Managing non-power issues in other basins. Implementing discretionary supplemental agreements, for power or non-power benefit. 31

  32. Modeling Output

  33. Modeling Process

  34. Kinbasket Reservoir: Scenario D (No NTS usage) 2472 feet 2386 feet 2360 feet Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements.

  35. Kinbasket Reservoir: Scenario A (4.5 MAF NTS use possible) 2467 feet 2369 feet 2336 feet Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements.

  36. Kinbasket Reservoir: Key Differences Non-Treaty usage will allow reduced full pool levels at Kinbasket No Usage Non-Treaty usage will draft more in the Fall/Winter 4.5 MAF Scenario

  37. Arrow Reservoir: Scenario D (No NTS usage) Flood Control Elevation 1437 feet 1413 feet 1403 feet Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements.

  38. Arrow Reservoir: Scenario A (4.5 MAF NTS use possible) Flood Control Elevation 1437 feet 1407 feet 1397 feet Based on AOP 2012, with critical supplemental agreements.

  39. Arrow Reservoir: Key Differences Non-Treaty usage will draft more in the fall No Usage Non-Treaty usage will result in lower elevation in March, with more rapid rise across the freshet 4.5 MAF Scenario

  40. Arrow Releases No NTS Usage 4.5 MAF Usage

  41. Climate Change

  42. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydro Systems Changes the annual volume of inflows. Shifts in timing of the runoff Changes in Electricity Demand Greater potential for extreme events (drought, floods, dam safety design) Biodiversity 42

  43. BC Hydro Climate Change Work: • BCH is a founding partner in the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) • Mission: To quantify the impacts of climate change and variability on the physical environment in Pacific North America. • 4 year research plan

  44. Precipitation (for 2050’s from 2007 Overview Study) Mean temperature (for 2050’s from2007 Overview Study) PCIC early general findings +10% +3° S U M M E R +3° -10% +3° -10% +5° +25% W I N T E R +4° +10% +3° +10% 44

  45. Columbia Mountains - MicaPotential Impacts on Hydrology Legend Inflow years 1984 - 2007 2008 Inflow year Historical median Return period frequency for annual peak flows For example: 1:10 Legend A 1:10 indicates the annual peak flow that can be expected to occur once on average, every 10 years 1984 - 2007 2008 Inflow year Historical median Spring runoff (freshet) starts earlier Inflows (cubic meters per second) Freshet peak flows potentially increased Summer low flows likely decreased 1:100 1:50 1:10 1:2 45

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