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The Limits of Crime Data for Predicting Confinement Space

This article explores the dangers and limitations of using crime data to predict the need for confinement space in juvenile justice systems. It highlights the risks of inaccurate predictions and the importance of considering other factors in determining space needs.

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The Limits of Crime Data for Predicting Confinement Space

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  1. The Limits of Crime Data for Predicting Confinement Space "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Nils Bohr Nobel laureate in Physics Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.December 2002 A product from the Urban Institute’s Program on Youth Justice

  2. The Dangers of “Predicting” Space Needs with Crime Data 1987 Many juvenile justice agencies predict their future needs for confinement space by analyzing recent trends in serious juvenile crime. What could be wrong with this? Using arrests for Violent Index crimes (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) as a proxy for incarceration need, an analyst in 1987 would have predicted no changes in the demand for confinement space. Would this have been an accurate prediction? An examination of national data about juvenile violent crime arrests will illustrate the point. Source: All arrest data are from an Urban Institute analysis of data from the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program and the publication, Crime in the United States (series, 1975-2001). x

  3. The Dangers of “Predicting” Space Needs with Crime Data

  4. The Dangers of “Predicting” Space Needs with Crime Data 1994 By 1994, the number of juveniles arrested for Violent Index Crimes nationwide nearly doubled. If decision-makers had listened to the analyst in 1987, they would have severely under-estimated the potential demand for space.

  5. The Dangers of “Predicting” Space Needs with Crime Data 1994 On the other hand, what if another analyst was asked to predict the need for secure confinement space based upon crime trends as we knew them in 1994? The second analyst, working in 1994, would have encouraged policymakers to fund a vast expansion of confinement space to accommodate a growing number of serious, young offenders. x

  6. The Dangers of “Predicting” Space Needs with Crime Data How successful would this prediction be seven years later? x

  7. The Dangers of “Predicting” Space Needs with Crime Data x

  8. The Dangers of “Predicting” Space Needs with Crime Data 2001 By 2001, much of the new confinement capacity called for in 1994 would have been under-used, or worse, used inappropriately.

  9. Most Offense Types Showed the Same Pattern in Recent Years x The problem would be similar no matter which offenses were used by crime data analysts. Using crime trends to anticipate long-term demands for secure confinement space is very risky.

  10. Most Offense Types Showed the Same Pattern in Recent Years

  11. Most Offense Types Showed the Same Pattern in Recent Years

  12. Most Offense Types Showed the Same Pattern in Recent Years

  13. Most Offense Types Showed the Same Pattern in Recent Years

  14. Most Offense Types Showed the Same Pattern in Recent Years

  15. Most Offense Types Showed the Same Pattern in Recent Years Burglary is a big exception nationally. The general trend has been down for juvenile burglary arrests. Does this mean that we should be building less capacity?

  16. Demand for Space is Shaped by How Confinement Space is Used The answer to that question depends on how current confinement capacity is used … If burglary cases account for a large portion of confined juveniles, then the downward trend in burglary arrests will reduce demand.

  17. Demand for Space is Shaped by How Confinement Space is Used How do we use current confinement capacity? The Department of Justice asked the States this question in 1997.

  18. States Vary Greatly in How They Use Secure Juvenile Confinement Space These data represent all juveniles being confined in residential facilities for delinquency offenses on a particular day in 1997. Source: Snyder, Howard and Melissa Sickmund (1999). Juvenile Offenders and Victims: 1999 National Report. Washington, DC: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.

  19. States Vary Greatly in How They Use Secure Juvenile Confinement Space Note the variations in how confinement capacity is used… These States also vary greatly in the sheer numbers of youth locked up for delinquency offenses.

  20. States Vary Greatly in How They Use Secure Juvenile Confinement Space

  21. States Vary Greatly in How They Use Secure Juvenile Confinement Space Juveniles in confinement per 100,000 Even when we control for the number of youth in the population, States vary greatly in how they use secure confinement space. Obviously, the use of secure confinement is not simply a function of juvenile populations and juvenile crime rates. Numbers in parentheses are youths in placement.

  22. States Vary Greatly in How They Use Secure Juvenile Confinement Space Juveniles in confinement per 100,000 Numbers in parentheses are youths in placement.

  23. So, What is the Answer? • There will never be a simple, statistical solution to uncertainty about space needs • Population data, arrest data & juvenile court data are insufficient for projecting future needs for confinement space • Understanding the demand for secure confinement requires information about laws, policies, & juvenile justice practices

  24. So, What is the Answer? The best way for State and local jurisdictions to deal with uncertainty about the future demand for secure confinement space is to engage in a routine process of “forecasting” … and that process must include policymakers and practitioners, not only data analysts and researchers.

  25. For More Information The Program on Youth Justice URBAN INSTITUTE Justice Policy Center 2100 M Street, NW Washington, DC 20037 Practical Forecasting Web Site http://youth.urban.org

  26. For More Information "To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect. " Oscar Wilde

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