ENERGY (AND) SECURITY

ENERGY (AND) SECURITY Complications and challenges

REMEMBER ‘SOMETHING’ SECURITY? • The security of energy itself is an issue: - because we rely on it and our supplies may be interrupted (by accident, nature, or human intent) - because the extraction and use of many energy forms can damage nature and human beings, ie reflexive risks for ‘human security’ • The interaction of energy and security is something else - covered later

SOME IMPLICATIONS • Good example of ‘reflexive risk’ i.e. our own choices (energy mix, energy efficiency, level of dependence) are the measure of the scale of security probs. • The supplier also needs security • Other consumers/suppliers can come to be seen as ‘the enemy’

PROBLEMS OF DEPENDENCE • Overall world supplies not adequate = zero-sum competition, excessive power to suppliers (primary + secondary aspects) • Lack of flexibility in market • Over-dependence on one energy type/source • High risks attached to certain supplies..

‘EXTERNAL’ RISKS • Resources less/different than thought • Supplier changes regime,+/or mind • Human/natural damage to sources • Human/natural damage to means of transit (ships, pipelines) • Prices rise (also for ‘illogical’ reasons)

‘INTERNAL’ RISKS • Means of distribution inadequate/inap-propriate/leaky • Human or natural damage to network • Inefficient/inappropriate use of energy • Risk of accidents • Pollution + other medical or environmental harm

MAPPING RELATIVE RISKS • External risks usually greatest for gas and oil - on gas may improve with LNG • Coal risk mainly internal, esp pollution • Nuclear ‘split personality’ • Renewables have least risk so long as produced on own territory • Where to put bio-fuels??? • Policy must set risks ag. costs (+ habit)

USUAL RANGE OF REMEDIES • Increase energy efficiency, decrease dependence (role of pricing) • Diversify energy types + suppliers • Use more home-made sources • Improve safety (inc anti-prolifn. steps) • Environmental + climate-related controls • Emergency stocks + stock-sharing • Long-term pricing agreements (collective bargaining?)

AND ALSO… • (Polit/mil/technical) arrangements for safety of sources • (Ditto) arrangements for safety/ redundancy/ repair of means of delivery Remarks: - whole range of remedies involve interface with private actors - security measures abroad lead into next agenda…

ENERGY AND SECURITY • Bad security affects energy: intra-state conflict and state weakness affects extraction; any armed conflict damages installations and export (aggravates pollution); conflict+terrorism affect delivery; neglect of safety (anywhere) • Energy affects security…….

ENERGY-LINKED THREATS • War with energy sources (or more rarely, delivery routes) as primary/secondary cause: energy (i) a tool of power, (ii) a tool of war • Use of energy supplies (and/or manipulated prices) as a weapon for coercion/domination without use of arms • Energy deals as means of ‘empire-building’ + strategic competition

DIFFERENT ENERGY SECURITY PROFILES • Typical European • Typical producer country • China or India • Typical smaller developing country

WHAT IS ICELAND’S PROFILE? • Over to Gustaf Adolf…

AFTER THE BREAK: 3 ‘THREAT’ SCENARIOS • Aim is to disentangle: - Is it really an ‘energy risk’ or a case of energy-and-security links? - How do public policy and private business interact? - What are the best remedies (also thinking of other security dimensions?)

ARCTIC ENERGY EXPLOITATION AND IMPACT FOR ICELAND • What issues? • What actors? • What remedies?

ANOTHER WAR IN THE GULF • What issues? • What actors? • What remedies?

INTRA-STATE WAR IN CENTRAL AFRICA INC. COMPETITION OVER OILFIELDS • What issues? • What actors? • What remedies?

ENERGY (AND) SECURITY

ENERGY (AND) SECURITY

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