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Update on Cash Crops/Winter Cereals

Update on Cash Crops/Winter Cereals. Coleman Research Group Presentation Jan. 24, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB.

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Update on Cash Crops/Winter Cereals

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  1. Update on Cash Crops/Winter Cereals Coleman Research Group Presentation Jan. 24, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  5. Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Winter Wheat Acreage Top: 2014 Planted Acreage Bottom: % Change from last year Units: Thousand acres Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Small Grains Summary Source: USDA-NASS

  9. Wheat Rust • 3 types: stem, leaf, and stripe • Affects wheat, barley, rye, and some grasses • Spread by spores • Prefers wet conditions • Stem rust: 65-85 degrees • Leaf rust: 59-71 degrees • Stripe rust: 50-59 degrees

  10. Oakley CL Wheat • Oakley CL is a new hard red winter wheat Clearfield variety released this fall by the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station. • This new variety has very good resistance to wheat streak mosaic virus and stripe rust. It is moderately susceptible to leaf rust. Its best area of adaptation will be western Kansas. • Registered and certified seed of Oakley CL will be available in the fall of 2014.

  11. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  12. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  13. World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  14. World Weather Source: USDC and USDA

  15. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  16. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  17. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  18. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  19. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  20. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  21. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  22. Wheat Export Pace Source: USDA-FAS

  23. Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  24. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  25. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  26. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  27. Current Corn Futures 4.40 4.34 4.29 Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014

  28. Current Soybean Futures 12.57 10.77 10.57 Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014

  29. Current Wheat Futures 6.65 5.98 5.75 Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014

  30. Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

  31. Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  32. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Export strength/weakness, China’s moves in the corn & wheat markets • Acreage allocation for 2014, Where do the extra acres go?

  33. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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