Labor, Radicals, and a Democratic President: Seeking Social Change in 2012?

1. Labor, Radicals, and a Democratic President: Seeking Social Change in 2012? Martin Halpern LMU Amerika-Institut, 14 November 2012

2. The Left • Working-class orientation • Seeks social justice for oppressed at home and abroad • Long-term goal of transforming society so that caring and cooperation are the organizing principles, socialism • Short-term goals: strengthening working class organization and progressive change

3. Progressivism • that set of changes under discussion in the body politic at a given moment that would improve the lives of working people and the oppressed and make society as a whole more just.

4. Sustained Periods of Social Progress Have Occurred When: • Labor movement energized by progressive activists • Significant left movements organizing large numbers of working people. • Left-center coalitions effective at local and national levels. • Democratic president strongly influenced by liberalism

5. Twentieth Century Politics: The New Deal Turning Point • Roosevelt and New Deal coalition achieves significant social reforms – Wagner Act, Social Security Act, Fair Labor Standards Act • CIO industrial unions win a degree of power • Northern Democrats shift toward a policy of inclusion of African Americans, begin supporting civil rights actions • Democrats become normal majority party

6. Gradual Erosion of Democratic Position • 1938: GOP picks up seats based on opposition to sit-downs and communism • 1940: GOP makes further gains based on opposition to FDR foreign policy • Cold war anti-communism in both foreign and domestic policy helps GOP • GOP gains among white Southerners and others opposed to civil rights began in 1948 and accelerate as national Democrats ally with civil rights movement in 1960s

7. Since the 1960s • Democratic division on foreign policy begun during the Vietnam war persists • South becomes normally Republican in presidential politics • Republicans make gains on cultural issues, but liberals and left deflect right-wing attacks; most Americans tolerant • Democrats draw new strength from civil rights, feminist and environmental movements

8. Economic Crisis of 1970s • New business activism in politics • Rapid decline of union density after 1975 weakens key Democratic constituency • Right-wing anti-tax campaigns • Democratic party leaders and financial supporters shift away from liberalism • Carter administration’s failures weaken Democrats among working class, depress low-income voter turnout

9. Democratic Comeback began in 1990-1992 • 1990 election gains • Minimum wage increase won • Civil Rights Act of 1991 • Grass roots mobilizations for reproductive rights • Bill Clinton’s election

10. March for Women’s Lives, April 5, 1992

11. Clintonite Centrism Again Erodes Democratic Base • Clinton governs from the center-right; undermines New Deal liberalism with welfare reform, accepting Reaganite budget and anti-big government concepts • Clinton triangulation strategy weakens Democratic effort to retake Congress after 1994 Republican victory

12. John Sweeney and New Voices win leadership of AFL-CIO • Greater diversity in leadership • Coalitions with students and rights groups • Aggressive political action campaigns • Organizing the unorganized • Against NAFTA and for Workplace Fairness • Support for undocumented workers’ rights

13. Left, Labor, and Progressive Campaigns Grow • Increase in minimum wage won in 1996, Teamster victory in UPS strike in 1997 • Marches for civil, abortion, and gay and lesbian rights, children’s programs, and gun control • Protests against School of Americas and Yugoslav war • “Teamsters and Turtles” protest WTO in Seattle

15. Progressives’ Search for Electoral Alternative has limited success • AFL-CIO calls for electing 2000 unionists in 2000 • NOW calls for Twentieth Century Party • Supreme Court ends New Party’s fusion tactic • Green Party elects candidates in progressive enclaves, runs Nader in 2000

16. 2000 Election: Nader • Critiques corporate domination of politics • Mass rallies, support from youth, disaffected, and some Perot backers • Endorsed by UE, California Nurses Association • Emphasizes criticism of Democrats, says they need a cold shower • Pulls Gore to the left but his attacks on Democrats helped Bush’s effort to appear as a “compassionate conservative” whom centrists could choose

17. 2000 Election: Gore • In wake of Clintonite centrist turn, Gore and Bush are “shockingly alike” on major issues • Influenced by progressive allies and by Nader campaign, Gore emphasizes populist themes • Major progressive groups, AFL-CIO, and CP mobilize for Gore • Strong attacks against Nader as spoiler by Gore partisans • Wins popular vote

18. 2004 Election Campaign • Mass left-led anti-war movement propelled Dean to the forefront and shaped campaign • Democratic constituencies’ anger over extremist administration, theft of 2000 election, jobs and health care crises • All Democratic candidates but one make progressive appeals, Clintonite centrism eclipsed • John Kerry runs an aggressive campaign with progressive themes

19. Progressives and the Left in 2004 • Grass roots mobilization on a new scale, increased voter registration • Effective independent campaigning by unions, MoveOn.org, Michael Moore, ACT, etc. • Greens refuse to endorse Nader, emphasize building party not damaging Democrats • Some on left focus on criticizing Kerry’s shortcomings, most on beating Bush and electing Kerry

21. Bush’s Second Term • Incompetent and uncaring response to Hurricane Katrina; corruption and scandals • Record federal deficit, slow economy, mortgage and banking crises, collapse of stock market, recession • Public shifts decisively against the war in Iraq • 2006 election -- Democrats retake Congress, hold 28 governorships • Bush’s approval level reached near-record low even before economic collapse

22. 2008 Election • Breakthrough in opening up highest office possibility to minorities and women • GOP ability to use cultural issues, racism, and national security fears to win presidential elections declines • Economic collapse shapes campaign

23. Obama 365   McCain 173

24. 2008 Election • Decisive victory by Obama and Democratic Congressional gains pointed to diminished racism and mandate for changing direction of country • Obama’s support for bank bailout: corporate domination continues unabated

25. Obama’s Appointees • Prominent political figures, headed by Hilary Clinton as Secretary of State • Diversity similar to that of Clinton • Most economic appointees are big-business oriented and overall a centrist cast • One progressive, Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, and a couple of liberals • Pro-union appointees to NLRB • Two progressive women appointed to Supreme Court

27. Obama’s Domestic Policies • Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act • Economic Stimulus Package -- funds for health care and green jobs but bank bailout continued; limited assistance to homeowners • Expansion of Children’s Health Program • Significant health care reform, coverage for all but no public option • Education program weakens public education but improvement of college loan program

28. Obama’s Domestic Policies • Action on greenhouse gases, climate change, energy • Strengthening consumer and financial regulation • Seeks Dream Act, stops deportation of youth without documents • Supports marriage equality • High unemployment, the country’s biggest problem, persists

29. Obama’s Foreign and Defense Policies • Repeal of Global Gag Rule, restored international family planning • Executive orders to close down Guantanamo Bay prison, ban use of torture but Bagram prison continued in Afghanistan and closing delayed • Military budget increased

30. Obama’s Foreign and Defense Policies • Gradual withdrawal from Iraq plan slower than campaign promise, attempt to keep troops there fails • More troops to Afghanistan; in 2011 embraces exit strategy from unpopular war • Tiny steps away from embargo against Cuba

31. Obama’s Foreign and Defense Policies • Significant arms reduction treaty with Russia • Response to Arab Spring included position to protect most conservative regimes such as Bahrain, military interventions • At Climate Conference in Durban, South Africa, U.S. worked to prevent action

32. Politics of the Obama Presidency • Republican conservatives refuse to support their party’s moderates • Some GOP and anti-gay victories in 2009 but public opinion shifting toward tolerance; support for gay marriage grows • Growing protests by students and university employees over cuts and tuition hikes • Labor rally for One Nation and Jon Stewart Rally to Restore Sanity on eve of 2010 election

33. National Equality March October 11, 2009

34. 2010 Election and its aftermath • Continuing high unemployment, low turnout of Democratic voters shaped election • Republicans take House majority, Democratic majority in Senate diminished • Obama sought compromise but Republicans say chief goal is to defeat Obama

35. 2011 Events • Republicans in several states to take away bargaining rights from public workers’ unions • Massive labor and student protests against anti-union law in Wisconsin • Ohio labor with support of Obama campaign succeeds in overturning anti-union law and forcing repeal of restrictive voting law

36. Occupy Wall Street Movement • Protests against unemployment, bank profiteering, foreclosures, and corporate domination of government spread across the country • Movement succeeds in changing the political debate • The 99% versus the 1% idea has widespread support

37. 2012 Election Campaigns • Walker survives recall • Republican campaign dominates the media • Romney prevails due to money and willingness to embrace right-wing • Unlimited money gives rich increasing dominance in framing of our political discussions

38. Unions Influential but Weaker • Membership base of 14.8 million • Continuing decline in union density • Split in AFL-CIO • Factional and jurisdictional battles • Benefit from new NLRB initiatives • Forced to fight defensive battles

40. Unions Back Obama . . . • Support health care and regulatory reforms and welcome pro-labor measures • Despite dissatisfaction with Obama’s economic policy and failure to act on Employee Free Choice Act, pragmatic decisions to oppose far right trend in Republican Party

41. But maintain some independence • AFL-CIO President Trumka speaks out against “grand bargain,” defends Social Security and Medicare • Labor activists take new initiatives

43. Chicago Teachers Win Strike

44. Labor Political Action 2012 • Unions and allied independent labor groups (Working America) mobilizing • Get out vote for Democrats • Aim to put collective bargaining rights in Michigan Constitution • Seek to stop California effort to prevent union political contributions

45. Progressive and Left Groups Backing Obama and Democrats • Planned Parenthood • NAACP 300,000 • NOW 500,000, • Sierra Club 1.3 million • AAUW 150,000 • Alliance for Retired Americans 4 million • Institute for Policy Studies • Communist Party and Democratic Socialists of America

46. Progressive and Left Groups Not Backing Obama • Peace Action 100,000 • United for Peace and Justice – 1300 groups • Committees of Correspondence for Peace and Democracy • Green Party, Calif. Peace and Freedom Party, Socialist Party

47. Obama 62,306,898 votes 51% Romney 58,937,514 votes 48%

48. Democratic Constituencies in 2004, 2008, 2012 2004 2008 2012 • African Americans 88 95 93 • Democrats 89 89 92 • liberals 85 88 86 • Jews 75 78 69 • No religious affilia. 67 75 70 • Other faiths 74 73 74 • gays and lesbians 77 70 76 • unmarried women 62 70 67 • Hispanics 53 67 71 • 18-29 year olds 54 66 60 • Asian Americans 56 62 73 • Union household 59 59 58

49. 2012 Referenda • Gay marriage issue – wins in four states • Anti-union measure defeated in California but so is pro-union measure in Michigan • GMO labeling in California defeated • Death penalty ban in California defeated • Easing restrictions on marijuana –passes in 3 of 6 states

50. Why a Close Election? • Shift of corporate interests like GE, Goldman Sachs to GOP • Lid off spending by wealthy • Limited improvement on jobs, housing, health care • Many who prefer Obama unlikely to vote • Obstacles to voting and fair count