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OSPAR 3 nd Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling

OSPAR 3 nd Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling. Intersessional Correspondence Group on Eutrophication Modelling (ICG-EMO). Organising committee Dave Mills (Chair) – Cefas, UK Hermann-Josef Lenhart (Co-Chair) IfM, Germany Hanneke Baretta-Bekker (Co-Chair) RIKZ, Netherlands.

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OSPAR 3 nd Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling

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  1. OSPAR 3nd Workshop on Eutrophication Modelling Intersessional Correspondence Group on Eutrophication Modelling (ICG-EMO) Organising committee Dave Mills (Chair) – Cefas, UK Hermann-Josef Lenhart (Co-Chair) IfM, Germany Hanneke Baretta-Bekker (Co-Chair) RIKZ, Netherlands 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  2. 6-9th September 2009 at the Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models (MUMM) Gulledelle 100 B-1200 BRUSSELS Calculating Transboundary Nutrient Transport 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  3. Agenda • Opening, welcome and adoption of agenda • Introduction to workshop • Transboundary nutrient transport • National presentations • Details of reporting requirements • Participants feedback on progress • Initial synthesis of results and preliminary conclusions • Atmospheric nutrient inputs • Ecosystem modelling perspecitves • Final discussion and conclusions • Plans to meet reporting requirements 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  4. Welcome & adoption of agenda • 20? participants from 6 countries - round table introductions • Adoption of agenda 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  5. Introduction • Role and responsibilities of ICG-EMO • Background • Conclusions from previous workshop • Intersessional work programme • Scene setting • TBNT Programme of work • Reporting requirements 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  6. Role and responsibilities of ICG-EMO • Ad hoc subsidiary body of OSPAR • Acts on mandate from EUC via ToR’s • EUC takes reports and concludes on further steps • In the absence of mandate no work can proceed – unless • Using written procedure • Contracting parties may choose to act individually or via co-operation 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  7. Background EUC in October 2007 invited ICG-EMO to conclude on: • 1. the state of predictive models for eutrophication assessment and nutrient reduction scenarios, including transboundary fluxes within the OSPAR maritime area, and their use in OSPAR eutrophication assessment work (EUC Programme of Work, product 12); - DONE • 2. the results of nutrient reduction scenarios and related environmental responses, and to finalise, or agree arrangements for finalising for EUC April 2008, an assessment of the expected eutrophication status of the OSPAR maritime area following the implementation of agreed measures(EUC Programme of Work, product 11); - DONE • 3. a work programme on the application of models for using transboundary nutrient fluxes in an assessment context (EUC Programme of Work, product 13) - DONE 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  8. Some tangible outputs OSPAR Commission, 2008. Nutrient reduction scenarios for the North Sea - Environmental consequences for problem areas with regard to eutrophication following nutrient reductions in model scenarios (55 pages). ISBN 978-1-906840-15-0. Publication Number: 374/2008 OSPAR Commission, 2008. Overview of the state-of-the-art of models and their use in OSPAR predictive eutrophication assessments OSPAR Commission. ISBN 978-1-906840-14-3. Publication Number: 373/2008 Predicting the consequences of nutrient reduction on the eutrophication status of the North SeaAccepted by AMEMR waiting for acceptance by JMR Hermann-J. Lenhart1), David K. Mills2), Hanneke Baretta-Bekker3), Sonja M. van Leeuwen2), Johan van der Molen2), Job W. Baretta4), Meinte Blaas5), Xavier Desmit5), Wilfried Kühn1), Geneviève Lacroix6), Hans J. Los5), Alain Ménesguen7), Ramiro Neves8), Roger Proctor9), Piet Ruardij10), Morten D. Skogen11), Alice Vanhoutte-Brunier7), MoniqueT. Villars5) and Sarah L. Wakelin9) 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  9. 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

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  11. Conclusions from ‘nutrient reduction’ workshops Designed to aid OSPAR in evaluating effectiveness of strategy to combat eutrophication • Achieved comparable model results through the workshop setup • Models can be useful applied to support application of Comprehensive Procedure and evaluation of strategy • 50% & even 70 % or greater reduction needed to achieve non-PA • Higher reductions needed in coastal regions • Responsiveness of parameters varied between models – highest response in coastal waters • Coastal DIN & DIP most responsive • Coastal & offshore chlorophyll least responsive • Most models rely on supplied SPM field to simulate underwater light availability • Concerns raised about spinup procedures and the resulting initial nutrient concentration 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  12. Intersessional activities • Feedback from ICES review of workshop report • Preparation for this workshop: preparation of documentation (User Guide, Data Description, TBNT Discussion Document) • Continued compilation of improved riverine input data, formatting and distribution • Updating and distribution of calibration & validation data • Planning meeting AMEMR Plymouth June 2008 • Planning meeting Den Haag early 2009 • Demanding tasks, time and energy consuming 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  13. EUC Questionnaire OSPAR Eutrophication Committee: Experience with Novel Observation Platforms This questionnaire will contribute towards Product 4 of the 2009/2010 Eutrophication Committee (EUC) Work Programme: “development of guidelines for spatial and temporal coverage of monitoring for nutrients and eutrophication effects”. In particular, EUC has asked for an analysis of national experience with novel observation platforms and in the future a proposal for options for co-ordinating national approaches. OSPAR EUC has specifically requested (i) to circulate a questionnaire to Contracting Parties to collect information on their experience in the use of novel observation platforms, including in the application of the Common Procedure in 2007; (ii) based on an analysis of the information received, draw up an operational module for JAMP monitoring guidelines for EUC 2010 with a view to establishing a common understanding of: how novel observation platforms, most of which operate trans-nationally, could be used in an assessment context and in a consistent way; how national use of those platforms could be co-ordinated; the pitfalls and how these should be avoided; take into account how the new tools could be regionally used in connection with the Marine Strategy Framework Directive; 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  14. OSPAR definition of eutrophication “the enrichmentof water by nutrients,especially nitrogen and/or phosphorus, causing an acceleratedgrowth of algae and higher forms of plant life to produce anundesirable disturbance to the balance of organisms presentin the water and to the quality of water concerned” 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  15. Outcome from previous applications OSPAR CP 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  16. Context • Eutrophication ongoing problem addressed by OSPAR through CP • TBNT recognised as potential source of enrichment for downstream areas and depositional areas – initiation of disputes procedure • Topic regarded as critical in order to identify and take cost effective measures to combat eutrophication • Models to be used to estimate flows of nutrients through the North Sea and determine relative contribution of different sources (inc atmospheric and oceanic) 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  17. Objectives • to quantify the relative contributions of the various nutrient sources, with their natural and anthropogenic fractions, to transboundary nutrient transports, including reference information on water masses; • to construct nutrient budgets for a number of predefined areas; • to determine consequences for target areas of any nutrient transport in terms of direct and indirect effects on parameters used for the assessment of the eutrophication status. 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  18. Approach To carry out the work the participants will carry out a number of defined simulations using dynamical ecological hydrodynamical models. The range of nutrient sources to be quantified are: • 1. the major rivers; • 2. the North Atlantic ocean and the Channel boundaries; • 3. the atmosphere. 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  19. Issues • Transport of nutrients (dissolved & particulate) • Residual vs enhanced transport • Physical and biogeochemical process influence TBNT • 2 key questions ? • Are nutrients transported and how much • Do they result in an ‘undesirable disturbance’ to the balance of organisms 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  20. Detailed approach Each participant is asked to carry out several model runs. A run with the hydrodynamical and transport model is required to estimate the water flux through a defined boundary, together with a conservative tracer to allow calculation of the fraction of this water which originates as river input. 1. A run with the coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model in the standard set-up in order to calculate: a. the nutrient dynamics, b. the nutrient loads, transported over specified boundaries, c. the nutrient budgets in the defined areas. 2. As 1 with a ‘tagged variable’ system (e.g., Ménesguen, 2006; Wijsman, 2003) that allows tracking of specific nutrients from specific rivers through the nutrient cycle to calculate: a. the nutrient loads from a specified river, transported over specified boundaries, b. the proportions of the nutrient budgets in the defined areas originating from a specified rivers. 3. If sufficient resource then multi-year runs of above 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  21. Anticipated results • the relative contribution of the different sources to the water mass of the relevant areas and present results at a sufficient temporal resolution (at least seasonally, if possible monthly); • the relative contribution of the different sources to the nutrient concentrations and loads of the relevant areas; Enrichment • the relative contribution of the different sources to direct and indirect eutrophication effects (e.g. phytoplankton blooms (preferably their share in primary production, their share in biomass)) in the areas chosen; • detailed presentation of the results during the growing season (March to September). Undesirable disturbance • detailed presentation of the results during the growing season (March to September). 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

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  23. Background JAMP (Joint Assessment & Monitoring Programme) requires: • an overview by 2006 of predictive models for eutrophication assessment and nutrient reduction scenarios, including transboundary nutrient fluxes within the OSPAR area, and of the possibilities of adopting relevant models for use by OSPAR Contracting Parties (JAMP product ET-7); • an assessment in 2006 of the expected eutrophication status of the OSPAR maritime area following the implementation of agreed measures (JAMP product EA-5). JAMP is designed to provide all necessary assessments (& tools) needed as contribution to QSR 2010. 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  24. Activities ICG-EMO should give priority to: • aiming at improved model performance and which are essential for a robust prediction of the eutrophication status of OSPAR maritime areas following nutrient reductions; • directly supporting the delivery of JAMP product EA-5 as part of the preparation and the carrying out of a second eutrophication modelling workshop; • initiating work on modelling transboundary nutrient fluxes. 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  25. Previous workshop • to prepare specifications for model applications, including a working definition for transboundary nutrient transport, selection of suitable locations for estimating nutrient fluxes, development of protocols for model applications and agreement of arrangements for calculating nutrient fluxes for identified target areas including dynamics, nutrient loads, transported over specific boundaries and nutrient budgets in defined areas with a view to comparing model results if necessary through a workshop. 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  26. Questions • Sources:- for which major rivers will nutrient sources be followed? • Do we agree with the proposed subdivisions of the North Sea? • Which predefined areas (e.g. one box per country) will be selected for determination of fluxes? • Are the proposed position of transects acceptable? • Should we use an idealized national boundaries for easier implementation in models? • Specification of the form of the nutrients (dissolved, particulate, organic or total)? • Particulate nutrient transport – how important, what measurements do we have, how do we represent it in our models ? • Is 2002 a suitable year for the calculation of the transboundary nutrient transports or do we prefer another year? • Is the data as used for this September 2007 workshop fit for the future purpose of calculating fluxes? • We already have a unique data set what further data might we require to ensure comparable model results 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  27. Conclusions of 1st workshop • Models have the potential to enhance assessments of eutrophication but more work needed to: • Improve validation protocols • Improve compilation of river data • Characterise sensitivity to open boundary conditions • Integrate monitoring data and model results • Specify how models may be applied to OSPAR CP • Improve Phaeocystis:carbon conversion • Give a broader perspective of biotic and abiotic states • Have a sufficient nos of relevant state variables 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

  28. Conclusions continued… • Can be used to determine robustness of OSPAR CP • Can help in understanding fate and transport of nutrients • Have potential for tracing inputs • Have raised questions over threshold settings • Raised issues about single exceedence • Identified a need for common boundary conditions • Models can be used to simulate pristine conditions • Can improve representativity of data when integrated with modelling data • Model extrapolation may be used to provide data for assessment purposes • Sensitivity to underlying physical model • Show that in some cases reducing loads by 90% may not reduce assessment level to below threshold 3rd OSPAR Workshop - TBNT - MUMM 7-9 Oct. 09

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