Breaking the Cycle of Lock-In

1. Breaking the Cycle of Lock-In Andrew Curry The Futures Company

2. Carlota Perez, ‘Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital’ The long-wave technology platforms ICT Oil/autos Steel/electricity Steam/rail Cotton/canals 1771 1829 1875 1908 1971 2020s?

3. A short digression: Technology cycles broaden then deepen Policy makers get captured in the final stages

4. Carlota Perez, ‘Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital’ The long-wave technology platforms • Large dominant players • In commoditised sectors • With well-developed infrastructure • And strong social habituation • Facing falling margins • With strong government connections v ICT Oil/autos v Steel/electricity Steam/rail Cotton/canals 1771 1829 1875 1908 1971

5. Thinking about lock in Using Three Horizons as an analysis tool

6. Why we do futures work Wider social environment (a field of value shifts as people change their world) Operating environment (e.g. competitors, regulatory agencies, changing user base, technology changes “A viable system needs to: - scan its environments for changes that might affect its viability - adapt to new information so it also influences those environments”. (Merrelyn Emery and Tom Devane) Organisation (e.g corporation, community, trade association, or network of stakeholders) Merrelyn Emeryand Tom Davane, “Search conference”, in Holman and Devane (eds) The Change Handbook

7. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.”(Upton Sinclair)

8. Source: Curry and Hodgson Dominance of model 3rd horizon 2nd horizon 1sthorizon Time 2012 The Three Horizons model helps understand change and lock-in The current dominant view of the world 1st Conflict creates response to change 2nd Dissenting ideas about the future Pockets of future found In present

9. Source: Curry and Hodgson Dominance of model 3rd horizon 2nd horizon 1sthorizon Time 2012 The Three Horizons model helps understand change and lock-in The current dominant view of the world 1st Conflict about systems, infrastructure, business models Conflict creates response to change 2nd Dissenting ideas about the future Pockets of future found In present

10. Source: Curry and Hodgson 2012 The 1st Horizon assumptions are strong and reinforcing Dominance of model Systems have encoded values 1st • Dominated by an economic view of the world • Car users can export a large share of their external costs • Car use is partly priced as a fixed cost • Road use (and airports) are a cause of economic success • We have a huge set of legacy infrastructures • Politicians believe that increasing costs of car use lose votes • ‘Everyone’ has a car • These assumptions are reinforced by lobbying 1sthorizon Time

11. Source: Curry and Hodgson 2012 The Third Horizons values tend to be diffuse Dominance of model 3rd horizon • Paying for externalities • From choice to social equity • From private use to public health • From private space to public space • From ownership to access • One-planet resource base • Inter-generational equity • ‘Early peak oil’ Values propose new systems Pockets of future found In present Time

12. Source: Curry and Hodgson Dominance of model 3rd horizon 2nd horizon 1sthorizon Time 2012 Change requires that these are synthesised Systems have encoded values “Operating environment perspective” 1st Internal conflict/ Business models prototyping Managing dilemmas across two perspectives 2nd Values propose new systems “Contextual environment perspective” Pockets of future found In present

13. Source: Curry and Hodgson Dominance of model 3rd horizon 2nd horizon 1sthorizon Time 2012 The answer lies in reframing the dilemmas 1st Internal conflict/ Business models prototyping Managing dilemmas across two perspectives 2nd From environment to congestion? From transport to health? From mobility to access? Pockets of future found In present