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South Carolina Drought Forecasting

South Carolina Drought Forecasting. Greg Carbone and Kirstin Dow Department of Geography University of South Carolina. Outline Community water systems managers in South Carolina Resampling methodology applied to drought forecasting Sample products. Investigating CWS Managers.

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South Carolina Drought Forecasting

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  1. South Carolina Drought Forecasting Greg Carbone and Kirstin Dow Department of Geography University of South Carolina

  2. Outline Community water systems managers in South Carolina Resampling methodology applied to drought forecasting Sample products

  3. Investigating CWS Managers • 3 Focus groups • 4 meetings with key informants • Survey results from 269 managers (52%)

  4. Confidence in… 5 - Day Forecasts 3-Month Forecasts Percentage

  5. Survey Questions Included in Use of Forecasts for Planning

  6. Summary of CWS Managers Views • CWS managers’ have some confidence in climate forecasts, but…… • Confidence does not increase the likelihood that CWS managers will use forecasts • Level of concern over risks and severity of consequences offers greater insight into uses of forecasts

  7. South Carolina Drought Stages

  8. Anticipating future drought indices • Resample from climatology • Incorporate long-lead forecasts

  9. Using Climatology (“equal chances”) Above Normal Precipitation Below Below Normal Above Temperature

  10. Above Normal Precipitation Below Below Normal Above Temperature

  11. Above Normal Precipitation Below Below Normal Above Temperature

  12. May 2002 drought prediction (made on January 1, 2002)

  13. “El Nino Projections” (made 1 June 2002)

  14. “El Nino Projections”

  15. Final Thoughts • Seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts can be used for “secondary products” that address particular concerns and awareness • Risk aversion, past experience • Since interannual variability swamps marginal probability shifts, exploit the historical climate record • Purveyors need regional-scale appreciation for user knowledge base and requirements

  16. Community Water Systems • Provide water to at least 25 people or 15 service connections year round (EPA) • Variety of water sizes, water sources • Risk aversion: reliability/resilience built into management and systems • Other management criteria: profitability, competitiveness, politically influenced

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