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Ship repair yards. Data source: LRFairplay. Jakub Walenkiewicz 29.04.2008. Content. The world fleet – recent changes Ships in operation – what does it take to keep them running Ship repair yards – estimated workload Main challenges ahead . The World Fleet. Contracting.
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Ship repair yards Data source: LRFairplay Jakub Walenkiewicz 29.04.2008
Content • The world fleet – recent changes • Ships in operation – what does it take to keep them running • Ship repair yards – estimated workload • Main challenges ahead © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
The World Fleet © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Contracting © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Orderbook accumulated 370% of growth ! © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Orderbook accumulated 500% of growth! © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Annual deliveries © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Vessels sold for scrapping Source: Fearnleys © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
0 % 3 % 8 % The World Fleet © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Ships in operation © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Maintenance • Special surveys • known as class renewals • every fifth year of a vessel’s operation • as a vessel gets older, surveys gradually take more time • cover hull, propulsion, machinery, equipment and installation inspections and repairs • always require dry docking • Intermediate surveys • ships have to by docked every 2 – 2.5 years • predominantly hull and propulsion inspections and repairs • machinery, equipment and installation inspections, usually based upon manufacturer instructions • Conversions • Casualties © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Ship repair yards - facts • It is estimated, that around 30% of the repair capacity has been converted to newbuilding • Fleet is growing by at least 8% per annum and may easily hit double digit growth • Ships get substantially bigger and naturally require bigger facilities (esp. super post panamaxes) • It is already nowadays difficult to get a slot in repair yards. Often ships are blocked for many days before they can be serviced What can we expect in such circumstances? © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Methodology… DELIVERY DATE!!! © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Estimated workload for Ship repair yards • Data: LRFairplay • Scope: All vessels in operation above 1000 DWT built after 1980/01/01 plus all vessels currently under construction (total orderbook) – roughly 43000 vessels; 1.02 million GT • No scrapping included, although it wouldn’t substantially change the picture • No forecast included. Data presented in the time span 2000 – 2020 • Estimated casualties added. Average 1200 vessels per year, corresponding to 20 mill. GT (based upon average from the past 5 years) © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Estimated workload for Ship repair yards Estimated time for each survey © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Workload – Index (number) 34% growth © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
11200 vessels 15000 vessels Workload – number of vessels © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
360 ships/day 490 ships/day Workload – number of vessels per day © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Workload – Index GT 87% growth © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
390 million GT 210 million GT Workload - GT © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
older ships 11.4 million GT 6.8 million GT Workload - GT per day © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
What can be done? © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
What can be done? Two simple solutions • Improve existing facilities – reduce time for dry docking • Build more ship-repair yards © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Increased productivity? • Increased number of surveys and repairs during operation of a vessel • performed outside repair yards • reduces total time spent in a repair yard, but not the time in a dry dock • Increased prefabrication of steel in repair yards allowing quicker steel replacement • requires investment in yards’ steel workshops but… • New IMO/Class etc. requirements in most cases increase a scope of work that needs to be done • Shipyards already struggle to cope with the current workload. Loads of improvements have been already implemented, including limiting time in dry docks © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
9.8 million GT 6.8 million GT Estimated workload – 10% productivity increase © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
New repair yards? • The world fleet is growing much faster than it used to, hence more facilities will be necessary anyway • Even if all possible improvements in the existing facilities have been implemented, repair yards most likely will not be able to cope with the workload after 2011 • Large VLCC dock are not capable to accept super post panamaxes as well as cruise vessels due to the draft limitation © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Ship-repair yards - Tankers 114% growth © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Ship-repair yards - Bulkers 63% growth © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Ship-repair yards - Containers 161% growth © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
Final remarks • Repair yards are already running over their normal capacity • Ships often do not get a full scope of necessary repairs • Average waiting time in ship repair yards is around 4 months • Super post panamax container vessels as well as big cruise ships can not enter most of the VLCC docks due to the draft limitation • New requirements put even a bigger pressure on repair yards due to extended scope of inspections and repairs • Lack of skilled seafarers often leads into a measurable condition of a vessel, which naturally increases workload for repair yards. TIME TO BUILD MORE SHIP REPAIR YARDS! do it quickly… © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved
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