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SPSS Homework. Practice. The Neuroticism Measure = 23.32 S = 6.24 n = 54 How many people likely have a neuroticism score between 29 and 34?. Practice. (29-23.32) /6.24 = .91 area = .3186 ( 34-23.32)/6.26 = 1.71 area =.4564 .4564-.3186 = .1378 .1378*54 = 7.44 or 7 people.
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Practice • The Neuroticism Measure = 23.32 S = 6.24 n = 54 How many people likely have a neuroticism score between 29 and 34?
Practice • (29-23.32) /6.24 = .91 • area = .3186 • ( 34-23.32)/6.26 = 1.71 • area =.4564 • .4564-.3186 = .1378 • .1378*54 = 7.44 or 7 people
Practice • On the next test I will give an A to the top 5 percent of this class. • The average test grade is 56.82 with a SD of 6.98. • How many points on the test did you need to get to get an A?
Step 2: Look in Table Z Z score = 1.64 .05
Step 3: Find the X score that goes with the Z score • Must solve for X • X = + (z)() • 68.26 = 56.82 + (1.64)(6.98)
Step 3: Find the X score that goes with the Z score • Must solve for X • X = + (z)() • 68.26 = 56.82 + (1.64)(6.98) • Thus, a you need a score of 68.26 to get an A
Practice • The prestigious Whatsamatta U will only take people scoring in the top 97% on the verbal section SAT (i.e., they reject the bottom 3%). • What is the lowest score you can get on the SAT and still get accepted? • Mean = 500; SD = 100
Step 2: Look in Table C Z score = -1.88 .03
Step 3: Find the X score that goes with the Z score • Must solve for X • X = + (z)() • 312 = 500 + (-1.88)(100)
Step 3: Find the X score that goes with the Z score • Must solve for X • X = + (z)() • 312 = 500 + (-1.88)(100) • Thus, you need a score of 312 on the verbal SAT to get into this school
Is this quarter fair? • How could you determine this? • You assume that flipping the coin a large number of times would result in heads half the time (i.e., it has a .50 probability)
Is this quarter fair? • Say you flip it 100 times • 52 times it is a head • Not exactly 50, but its close • probably due to random error
Is this quarter fair? • What if you got 65 heads? • 70? • 95? • At what point is the discrepancy from the expected becoming too great to attribute to chance?
Compare Group to Population Population Happiness Score
The Theory of Hypothesis Testing • Data are ambiguous • Is a difference due to chance? • Sampling error
Population • You are interested in the average self-esteem in a population of 40 people • Self-esteem test scores range from 1 to 10.
1,1,1,1 2,2,2,2 3,3,3,3 4,4,4,4 5,5,5,5 6,6,6,6 7,7,7,7 8,8,8,8 9,9,9,9 10,10,10,10 Population Scores
What is the average self-esteem score of this population? • Population mean = 5.5 • Population SD = 2.87 • What if you wanted to estimate this population mean from a sample?
What if. . . . • Randomly select 5 people and find the average score
Group Activity • Why isn’t the average score the same as the population score? • When you use a sample there is always some degree of uncertainty! • We can measure this uncertainty with a sampling distribution of the mean
INTERNET EXAMPLE • http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/stat_sim/sampling_dist/index.html • http://onlinestatbook.com/stat_sim/sampling_dist/index.html
Sampling Distribution of the Mean • Notice: The sampling distribution is centered around the population mean! • Notice: The sampling distribution of the mean looks like a normal curve! • This is true even though the distribution of scores was NOT a normal distribution
Central Limit Theorem For any population of scores, regardless of form, the sampling distribution of the mean will approach a normal distribution a N (sample size) get larger. Furthermore, the sampling distribution of the mean will have a mean equal to and a standard deviation equal to / N
Sampling Distribution • Tells you the probability of a particular sample mean occurring for a specific population
Sampling Distribution • You are interested in if your new Self-esteem training course worked. • The 5 people in your course had a mean self-esteem score of 5.5
Sampling Distribution • Did it work? • How many times would we expect a sample mean to be 5.5 or greater? • Theoretical vs. empirical • 5,000 random samples yielded 2,501 with means of 5.5 or greater • Thus p = .5002 of this happening
Sampling Distribution 5.5 P = .4998 P =.5002 2,499 2,501
Sampling Distribution • You are interested in if your new Self-esteem training course worked. • The 5 people in your course had a mean self-esteem score of 5.8
Sampling Distribution • Did it work? • How many times would we expect a sample mean to be 5.8 or greater? • 5,000 random samples yielded 2,050 with means of 5.8 or greater • Thus p = .41 of this happening
Sampling Distribution 5.8 P = .59 P =.41 2,700 2,300
Sampling Distribution • The 5 people in your course had a mean self-esteem score of 9.8. • Did it work? • 5,000 random samples yielded 4 with means of 9.8 or greater • Thus p = .0008 of this happening
Sampling Distribution 9.8 P = .9992 P =.0008 4,996 4
Logic • 1) Research hypothesis • H1 • Training increased self-esteem • The sample mean is greater than general population mean • 2) Collect data • 3) Set up the null hypothesis • H0 • Training did not increase self-esteem • The sample is no different than general population mean
Logic • 4) Obtain a sampling distribution of the mean under the assumption that H0 is true • 5) Given the distribution obtain a probability of a mean at least as large as our actual sample mean • 6) Make a decision • Either reject H0 or fail to reject H0
Hypothesis Test – Single Subject • You think your IQ is “freakishly” high that you do not come from the population of normal IQ adults. • Population IQ = 100 ; SD = 15 • Your IQ = 125
Step 1 and 3 • H1: 125 > μ • Ho: 125 < or = μ
Step 4: Appendix Z shows distribution of Z scores under null -3 -2 -1 1 2 3