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EVALUATION OF A NON-HYDROSTATIC MESOSCALE MODEL FOR DISCHARGE FORECASTING

EVALUATION OF A NON-HYDROSTATIC MESOSCALE MODEL FOR DISCHARGE FORECASTING. K. Chancibault, V. Ducrocq, F. Habets CNRM/GAME, Météo-France S. Anquetin, G-M. Saulnier CNRS, LTHE. 1-way. Meso-NH or AROME. TOPMODEL. 2-way. Meteorological model. Hydrological model. INTRODUCTION.

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EVALUATION OF A NON-HYDROSTATIC MESOSCALE MODEL FOR DISCHARGE FORECASTING

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  1. EVALUATION OF A NON-HYDROSTATIC MESOSCALE MODEL FOR DISCHARGE FORECASTING K. Chancibault, V. Ducrocq, F. Habets CNRM/GAME, Météo-France S. Anquetin, G-M. Saulnier CNRS, LTHE WSN05, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005

  2. 1-way Meso-NH or AROME TOPMODEL 2-way Meteorological model Hydrological model INTRODUCTION • Flash-floods in Southeastern France : • Quasi-stationnary MCS => high cumulative rainfall amounts (>200 mm/day) • Small mountainous basins (200 – 2500 km²) => short lag-time (<12 hrs) • Next NWP models : non-hydrostatic high-resolution • model (AROME) • One-way coupling : 8-9 September 2002 case • Two-way coupling : configuration WSN05, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005

  3. ARDECHE Vogüé * CEZE GARD Alès St Martin * * Anduze * * La Roque * Boucoiran Remoulins * Quissac VIDOURLE * * Sommières ONE-WAY COUPLING • The hydrological model : TOPMODEL (Beven and Kirkby, 1979) • DTM : 50 m • 1 model / basin • 9 basins (200 km²- 2200 km²) • Calibration (4 parameters) • Time step : 1 hour • Areal rainfall depths WSN05, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005

  4. ONE-WAY COUPLING Rainfall data • Simulated rainfall : • Meso-NH (Lafore et al, 1998), non-hydrostatic mesoscale model at 2.4 km • Same physical package and resolution as AROME • Initial conditions : mesoscale initialization (surf obs + radar + IR sat data) from Ducrocq et al ( 2000) • Interpolated (kriging method) rain-gauge data WSN05, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005

  5. mm 10 50 100 200 300 Phase I Phase II Phase III Nîmes Nîmes Nîmes + + + 12-22 UTC, 08/09/02 22-04 UTC, 08-09/09/02 04-12 UTC, 09/09/02 Delrieu et al (2005) 04-12 UTC 12-22 UTC 22-04 UTC ONE-WAY COUPLING • Case study : 8-9 September 2002 • 24 casualties • Damage : 1.2 billion euros Cumulated rainfall (Nîmes radar) WSN05, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005

  6. mm ONE-WAY COUPLING • Meso-NH simulations results OBS OBS OBS Phase II: 22-04 UTC Phase III: 04-12 UTC Phase I: 12-22 UTC SIMU SIMU SIMU Cumulated rainfall WSN05, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005

  7. Ardèche Cèze Gard Vidourle Rémoulins Sommières Boucoiran La Roque St Martin Anduze Quissac Vogüé Alès mm Simulated rainfall depths errors on the phase I ONE-WAY COUPLING • Meso-NH simulations results OBS SIMU Cumulated rainfall during the phase I WSN05, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005

  8. ONE-WAY COUPLING • Hydrological simulations results Anduze (540 km²) Vogüé (620 km²) observed discharges Simulated discharges from : observed rainfall simulated rainfall WSN05, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005

  9. Meso-NH or Arome flux Wmob ISBA TOPMODEL As TWO-WAY COUPLING • Configuration t = 5 min x = 2-3 km L = 1000 km t = 1h x = 50 m L = 1 km t = 5 min x = 2-3 km L = 1000 km Routing WSN05, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005

  10. TOPMODEL 50m Vogüé TOPMODEL 50m Anduze ISBA 2.5 km + Vogüé + Anduze TWO-WAY COUPLING • Idealized simulation Soil water horizontal distribution m3/m3 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.39 0.37 0.35 0.33 0.31 0.29 Soil water increment coupleur WSN05, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005

  11. CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOKS One-way coupling : • Discharge forecasting needs updated high-resolution forecasted rainfall • Ensemble forecasting rainfalls to perform ensemble discharges forecasting Two-way coupling : • Soil water horizontal distribution was implemented in the SVAT scheme • Soon, routing will be added  discharge simulation • Sensitivity studies (e.g. time step, soil depth, …) • Validation for numerous basins of the Southeastern France Applications • Validation of high-resolution simulated rainfall • Study of the feedback of hydrology to the atmosphere • Evaluation of the 2-way coupling vs the 1-way coupling WSN05, Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005

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