Research on urban mileage of personal vehicles

Final Presentation Group 4 Research on urban mileage of personal vehicles Professor : Kaibo Wang Caleb Hou 2009210525 Huifan Xi 2009210137 Guangpu Lei 2009210135 Mathew 2009280134

Outline • Research Goal • Background • Mileage Analysis • Market Analysis • Conclusion

Research goal: • Which kind of micro car can be put in • the market • Research on: • Urban mileage of personal vehicles • Electric micro car market information • Survey among 500 randomly chosen people in Beijing Target

Background • Desires of mankind: • Relieve traffic load of cities • Reduce gasoline consumption • Traffic in Beijing: • Average speed of 25 km/h • Highest speed limit 100 km/h (5th ring)

Data Analysis • Mileage analysis: • Descriptive analysis on results of • the survey • Daily mileage distribution analysis • Relation of daily and annual • mileage • Micro car market analysis: • Descriptive analysis on results of the • Survey • Analysis whether like or dislike micro • cars • Analysis on the expected price

Mileage: Variables

Daily Mileage Distribution Capacity of 100 km per charge -> How many users can be satisfied • Current electric micro car: satisfies 95% • of car owners -> only charge at night • Half of drivers -> one charge in 3 days

Daily Mileage Analysis 一般线性模型: DM 与 TTS, VT, G, EL, OC, FI 来源自由度 Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P TTS 4 12815 14427 3607 2.49 0.043 VT 2 1715 1044 522 0.36 0.698 GC 1 11538 14230 14230 9.81 0.002 G 1 1332 1227 1227 0.85 0.358 DA 1 298 80 80 0.06 0.814 EL 4 4683 4300 1075 0.74 0.564 OC 10 24750 23706 2371 1.63 0.094 FI 4 9457 9457 2364 1.63 0.166 误差 436 632463 632463 1451 合计 463 699052 S = 38.0868 R-Sq = 9.53% R-Sq（调整） = 3.92%

Daily Mileage Analysis (Cont‘d) • GC is continuous with negative coefficient • car owners with a high GC travels less than the ones with a low GC

Relation Of Daily & Annual Mileage Annual Mileage ≠ Daily Mileage * 365 • Explanation: • People travel 221 days per year as routine • legal work days: 251 days per year • Long distance travel of 1228 km • e.g. Holiday or business trip 回归分析: AM 与 DM 回归方程为 AM = 1228 + 221 DM 自变量系数准误 T P 常量 1227.9 355.0 3.46 0.001 DM 221.230 6.128 36.10 0.000 S = 4715.85 R-Sq = 74.2% R-Sq（调整） = 74.1%

Market Analysis: Variables

Market Analysis: Results

Further Market Analysis Variables

Further Analysis On LORN Regression Analysis on LORN -> only VT influences LORN (only p-value < 0.05) • micro car owners : 60.3% • impact car owners: 61.1% • others: 67.9%

Market Analysis: Results (Cont‘d) • 1st most important factors: • Mileage capacity • Safety • 2nd most important factors: • Velocity • Power

Expected Price Analysis • Average expected price: • 47,000 yuan • 75% accept a price < 50,000yuan 下四分上四分变量合计数 N N* 平均值标准差最小值位数中位数位数最大值 P 504 501 3 4.749 3.417 1.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 26.000

Further Market Analysis Variables

Further Analysis On Price General Linear Model: Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P 出行目的 4 92.58 93.17 23.29 1.13 0.344 短途交通 4 96.99 120.17 30.04 1.45 0.216 汽车类型 2 131.89 169.22 84.61 4.09 0.017 日驶里程 1 28.21 70.67 70.67 3.41 0.065 单位耗油 1 37.54 58.53 58.53 2.83 0.093 市区比例 1 25.16 19.59 19.59 0.95 0.331 性别 1 64.29 61.76 61.76 2.98 0.085 驾龄 1 22.44 20.72 20.72 1.00 0.318 教育程度 4 20.08 9.74 2.43 0.12 0.976 职务 10 228.83 217.33 21.73 1.05 0.400 家庭月收入 4 51.15 51.15 12.79 0.62 0.650 Error 438 9066.75 9066.75 20.70 Total 471 9865.91 S = 4.54976 R-Sq = 8.10% R-Sq(adj) = 1.18% Term Coef SE Coef T P 汽车类型 1 -0.8881 0.4215 -2.11 0.036 2 -0.0771 0.3082 -0.25 0.803

Further Analysis On Price (Cont‘d) Main effect plot: clear positive trend as current car size goes up -> probably occurred by financial condition

Conclusion • 75% of citizens: routine mileage • less than 50 km • Most people accept micro cars • 75% accept a price < 50,000yuan

Research on urban mileage of personal vehicles