Systems Theory & Thinking David X. Swenson PhD LP

1. Systems Theory & Thinking David X. Swenson PhD LP

3. Familiar Systems

4. So…how would you define a “system”? And what are its characteristics? Rube Goldberg “System”

5. Characteristics of a “system” • Systems are comprised of elements or components. These can be people, events, actions, etc. • There are connections or relationships between and among these elements. • There are usually some form of feedback or feedforward that form cycles. • Systems have boundaries that include some things and exclude others • Cycles or subsystems are organized as part of larger systems or hierarchies. • Mechanisms in the system tend to maintain them; they resist change • A system are structured in ways that produce outcomes which can be viewed as a goal, purpose, or at least a functional direction. • Cycles may have thresholds after which something else happens • A systems exchanges with its environment in a manner that enables it to adapt; not to adapt risks adverse consequences

6. Organizational “Learning Disabilities” that interfere with systems thinking (Senge, 1991) • “I am my position” – Overidentification with our positions and roles can limit our thinking of possibilities outside that barrier. • “The enemy is out there”– blame things outside ourselves when things go wrong to avoid responsibility as a change agent • The illusion of taking charge– we are reacting even when we call it proactive; we aren’t acting “on” something– we are participating in it • Fixation on events– focusing on isolated events rather than relationships, patterns, and cycles • Parable of the boiled frog– we accommodate to stresses which become the new norm and overlook counter-intuitive solutions • The delusion of learning from experience– learning involves knowledge (application) not just information; novel challenges may be unrelated to previous experience and require new constructions • The myth of the management team– they may become preoccupied in turf wars, presume their expertise, and be subject to groupthink

7. When is Systems Thinking Appropriate? • There are multiple perspectives on what the situation is and how to deal with it • Things seem to oscillate endlessly • A previously applied fix seems to overshoot the goal • A previously applied fix has created problems elsewhere • After a fix is applied the problem returns in time • Over time there is a tendency to settle for less • The same fix is applied repeatedly • There is a tendency to allow an established standard to slip • Growth slows over time • Partners for growth become adversaries • Limitations experienced are believed to result from insufficient capacity • There is more than one limit to growth • Limited resources are shared by others • Growth leads to decline elsewhere

8. Take time to understand the system that supports the expression of the problem Furthermore…”when you have 20 days to find an answer to a problem, spend the first 19 days understanding the question.”

9. Systems Principles • Today's problems come from yesterday's solutions. • The harder you push, the harder the system pushes back. • Behavior gets worse before it gets better. • The easy way out usually leads back in. • The cure can be worse than the disease. • Faster is slower. • Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space. • Small changes can produce big results--but the areas of highest leverage are often the least obvious. • You can have your cake and eat it too--but not all at once. • Dividing an elephant in half does not produce two small elephants. • There is no blame.

11. What do you see? • Mud splatters • Satellite view of islands • Tile floor • Frosted window • Tired horse • Dog eating • Human face • Rorschach inkblot…

13. Some Systems Examples

14. Burke-Litwin Model ofOrganizational Performanceand Change The 7-S McKinsey model Gelinas-JamesElements of Organizations Model

15. What we expect is not always what we get

16. Kurt Lewin’s Force Field Analysis

17. Fishbone or Ishikawa Diagram

18. Systems Approach to Force Field Analysis http://www.idrc.ca/events-swaminathan/ev-85414-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html

20. India/China native species Mexico No. of birds Mynah Turtle Dove Lantana camara Plant army worm population + + Seeds Berries + Grassland Larvae Sugarcane Eradication of Lantana makes room for even more invasive species cattle grazing Agromyzid Fly Financial stability

21. India/China native species Mexico + No. of birds _ Mynah Turtle Dove Lantana camara Plant + + army worm population _ Seeds Berries + Grassland Larvae Sugarcane Eradication of Lantana makes room for even more invasive species cattle grazing Agromyzid Fly Financial stability

22. India/China native species Mexico No. of birds Mynah Turtle Dove Lantana camara Plant _ _ army worm population Seeds Berries _ _ Grassland Larvae Sugarcane Eradication of Lantana makes room for even more invasive species + cattle grazing Agromyzid Fly Financial stability

23. India/China native species Mexico No. of birds _ Mynah Turtle Dove Lantana camara Plant _ _ army worm population + Seeds Berries _ _ Grassland Larvae Sugarcane + Eradication of Lantana makes room for even more invasive species + cattle grazing Agromyzid Fly Financial stability

24. India/China native species Mexico Mynah Turtle Dove Lantana camara Plant _ army worm population No. of birds Seeds _ Berries _ Grassland Larvae Sugarcane Eradication of Lantana makes room for even more invasive species + cattle grazing Agromyzid Fly Financial stability

25. India/China native species Mexico Mynah Turtle Dove Lantana camara Plant + army worm population No. of birds Seeds _ _ Berries _ Grassland Larvae Sugarcane _ Eradication of Lantana makes room for even more invasive species _ cattle grazing Agromyzid Fly _ Financial stability

26. India/China native species Mexico No. of birds Mynah Turtle Dove Lantana camara Plant army worm population Seeds Berries Grasslands Larvae Sugarcane Eradication of Lantana makes room for even more invasive species cattle grazing Agromyzid Fly Financial stability

28. How to Tell the Story from a Loop • Start anywhere. Pick the element, for instance, of most immediate concern. • Any element may go up or down at various points in time. What has the element been doing at this moment? Try out language which describes the movement: As Acme's sales level goes up . . . goes down . . . improves . . . deteriorates. . . increases. . . decreases. . . rises. . . falls . . . soars . . . drops. . . waxes . . . wanes . . . • Describe the impact this movement produces on the next element As Acme's sales level goes down, the number of efforts to sell new accounts goes up. • Continue the story back to your starting place. Use phrases that show causal interrelationship: "This in turn, causes . . ." or ". . . which influences . . ." or ". . . then adversely affects . . ." As Acme's sales level goes down, the number of efforts to sell new accounts goes up. This means the level of service drops, which in turn influences sales to continue falling . . . • Try not to tell the story in cut-and-dried, mechanistic fashion. When service problems rise, sales fall. As sales fall, sales force efforts rise. Instead, make it come alive. Add illustrations and short anecdotes so others know exactly what you mean.... This means the level of service drops. We just can't keep to the delivery schedules we promised. Loyal customers, in turn, become upset. Some stop doing business with us . . .

29. Now it’s your turn! • For a given problem or issue, what are the key components, events, people, behaviors, or operations involved? Any related, less obvious ones? • Draw a causal map that shows the connections among these for the current problem • Use a plus or minus sign to show whether the connection increases (contributes to) or decreases (limits or controls) the next link • Identify and draw feedback loops • Consider nodes or event points for potential change intervention • Trace the possible flow of impact downstream from the interventions

30. Some Limitations of the Systems Approach • Systems usually involve a high level of complexity, sometimes beyond the feasibility of modeling • Tolerance of and preference for complexity is a personality feature and some people may dislike it • A system map is dependent on the factors that are identified; too often there are unknown variables, although they may emerge later as awareness increases • Don’t use systems approach when the problem is simple and does not require double-loop learning • Events or nodes on a systems map are usually significant events. It may be that very small and relatively unnoticeable events are key points as well. • Teaching systems thinking takes time that some clients may not believe is justified. • As larger system constraints become clear, change may be less feasible (although that may save wasted effort, and still leads to considering alternatives)

31. The End…not really, systems go on and on and… Revenge Effects– Interesting failures to use systems thinking

32. Some excellent links http://managementhelp.org/systems/systems.htm#anchor123477 McNamara’s Systems Thinking page http://www.systems-thinking.org/index.htmBellinger’s Mental Models website http://www.tonnievanderzouwen.nl/English%20version/methods4.html Overview of the causal loop archetypes http://www.aces.ac.uk/PantanalInternationalNetwork.htm Causal loop diagram application to Brazil’s water problem http://www.stsc.hill.af.mil/crosstalk/2004/03/0403West.html Applying ST in process development with emphasis on fixes that backfire and shifting the burden models