Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Overview Kyle L. Olsen Asian Regional Aviation Safety Team 19 – 20 November 200

1. Commercial AviationSafety Team (CAST)Overview Kyle L. OlsenAsian Regional Aviation Safety Team19 – 20 November 2008 – Bangkok

2. Vision - Mission - Goals Vision • Key aviation stakeholders acting cooperatively to lead the world-wide aviation community to the highest levels of global commercial aviation safety by focusing on the right things. Mission • Enable a continuous improvement framework built on monitoring the effectiveness of implemented actions and modifying actions to achieve the goal. Goal • Reduce the US commercial aviation fatal accident rate 80% by 2007. And • Maintain a continuous reduction in fatality risk in US and International commercial aviation beyond 2007.

3. CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Industry Government AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF • DOD • FAA • Aircraft Certification • Flight Standards • System Safety • Air Traffic Operations • Research • NASA • ICAO** • EASA / JAA • TCC • NATCA** • NTSB** Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing P&W and RR ** Observer

4. Safer Skies COMMERCIAL AVIATION Controlled Flight GENERAL AVIATION Into Terrain CABIN SAFETY Aeronautical Loss of Control Decisionmaking Passenger Interference Loss of Control Uncontained Engine Failures Weather Passenger Seat Belt Use Runway Incursion Controlled Flight Carry-on Baggage Into Terrain Approach and Landing Child Restraint Survivability Weather Turbulence Runway Incursions HUMAN FACTORS IMPROVED DATA IN OPERATIONS & & ANALYSIS MAINTENANCE

5. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Data analyses • Safety enhancement development Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

6. General Methodology for Calculating the Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing Intervention =  ( ) Accident Risk Reduction , Effectiveness that an intervention has for reducing the accident rate if incorporated Portion of world fleet with intervention implemented

7. Spreadsheet Example – Historical Airplane Accidents & Proposed Safety Enhancements

8. Example Scatter Chart 2007 Implementation & Resources 25 20 Dollars In Millions 15 10 Combined Score 5 Combined SOPs 0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 Score

9. CAST Safety Plan 47 Completed Safety Enhancements • Safety Culture • Maintenance Procedures • Flight Crew Training • Air Traffic Controller Training • Uncontained Engine Failures • Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) • Standard Operating Procedures • Precision Approaches • Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems • Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

10. CAST Safety Plan (cont.) 23 Committed Safety Enhancements • Policies and Procedures • Aircraft Design • Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) • Runway Incursion Prevention • Precision Approaches (additional projects) • Icing (additional turboprop projects) • Midair • Maintenance • Cargo safety culture, policies and procedures • Runway Safety

11. CAST Implementation Status

12. 70 Safety Enhancements 47 Complete 23 Underway 23 47 CHANGES from last meeting 2020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimate 74%

13. 2020 CAST SAFETY PLAN – WORKING SEs (Total Plan – 70 SE; 47 Complete; 23 Underway) 39 ANM 47 ATO 53 ARA 120 ATA 101R1 AIA 121 ATA 125R1 ATA 133R1 AIA 134R2 AIA 136 ATA 159R1 ATO 127R2 AIR 131R1 ATA 165R3 AFS 172R1 AFS 175R1 ATA 179R1 AFS-1 180 ATS-1 169R1 AFS 170R2 AIA 181R1 ARP 182R1 ATO-1 183R1 AFS-1 SE # LOOSEC Action Needed ON TRACK COMPLETED LATE LATEOP IN QUESTION

14. CAST Moving into the Future

15. Safety Plan Development Accident JSITS Case studies Accident JSATS Case studies Safety Enhancements Recommended Plan Revision Emerging Risk Develop Enhancements & Metrics Incident Analysis Process Master Contributing Factors JIMDAT Review CAST Plan Changing Risk Metrics Performance To Plan Review Non- Performance Information Aviation System Changes Identify Hazards Identify Factors Yes Develop Contributing Factors (new or emerging Present In Master Factors FAST Hazards No Demographic Changes Identify Hazards Identify Factors 11-5-03 CAST-051R

16. Aviation Safety Information Analysis Sharing ASIAS Activities Summary to the CAST 7 August 2008

17. Signed MOUs

18. Regional Airlines Outreach

19. ASDE-X Airports ATL-BDL-CLT-FLL-HOU IAD-LAX-MCO-MKE-ORD PVD-SDF-SEA-STL ASIAS Architecture:Where We Are FAA ASIAS Data Enhanced Data Management Tools Expanded Analytical Tools DNAA DNFA ASDE-X MITRE CRS Data National Offload Program Data Fusion New Airlines

20. 6. Traffic Procedures 5. Wx 3. Radar Tracks 1. FOQA TAWS Alerts 4. Terrain database 2. MVA

21. Study of Remaining Risks Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

22. Remaining Risk • Cargo • Icing • Midair • Maintenance

23. SE-165 MidairTCAS Policies and Procedures • Prevent midair collisions by requiring flightcrews to follow TCAS Resolution Advisories (RA’s), establish procedures for TCAS range setting and requiring that TCAS-capable simulators and flight-training devices are used for training TCAS responses and Maneuvers. • SEA AC 018 issued 25 June 2008.

24. SE-164 MidairTCAS Installation • Worldwide installation of TCAS in all aircraft of 33,000 pounds or greater max takeoff weight. • ICAO requirement for aircraft of 6,700kg • TCAS required in Asia – SE-164 is complete

25. SE-121 CargoStandard Operating Procedures • Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by publishing and enforcing clear, concise and accurate standard operating procedures (SOP), and training the rationale behind those procedures • Cathay Pacific and AAPA to provide briefing. • CAST activity to be complete April 2010

26. SE-125 CargoHazardous Materials - HazMat • Reduce hazmat related accidents and incidents develop and implement by regulators, manufacturers (of packaging material) and shipping companies a multi-tier system to identify and safely process undeclared hazardous material. • CAST to provide information after completion in December 2010

27. SE-129 Regulation & PolicyCompliance, Enforcement and Restricted Operations • Regulators should improve their legal processes for compliance, enforcement and operational restrictions. • FAA Order 2150.3B now contains timeliness goals for completion of an investigation, preparation of the enforcement report and the processing of legal actions.

28. SE-129 Regulation & PolicyCompliance, Enforcement and Restricted Operations - continued • Also, FAA Order 2150.3B now contains policies and procedures for the grant of immunity from FAA enforcement to persons who provide information about violations to the regulations.

29. SE-131 CargoSafety Culture • Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by encouraging a culture that enhances operational safety. Safety culture can be enhanced by a safety management system (SMS). • To be covered by SMS • CAST activity complete October 2011

30. SE-136 IcingTraining – Engine Surge Recovery • To prevent accidents resulting from an engine surge caused by ice ingestion, airlines should provide adequate training for flight crews to ensure appropriate responses. • CAST activity complete April 2009

31. SE-127 CargoFire Containment • To reduce the occurrence of accidents and incidents from cargo fires, improved cargo containers should be developed to contain (or suppress) fires originating in shipped cargo • Not applicable for implementation by ARAST. • (FEDEX can provide additional information if there is interest.)

32. CAST Sharing with the World

33. Cost Savings Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents 100 Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 80 Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year Dollars/Flt. Cyc 60 73% Risk reduction 40 20 Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels 0 2002 2007

34. ICAO COSCAP (Cooperative Development of Operational Safety and Continuing Airworthiness) Europe ESSI: European Strategic Safety Initiative Central and South America PAAST: Pan American Aviation Safety Team Africa African Safety Enhancement Team (ASET) Asia/Pacific Association of Asia Pacific Airlines North America NAFTA: North American Free Trade Association Others CAST Links to International Safety Activities

35. Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1998 through 2007 COSCAP CIS C.I.S.1 Europe 0.7 ESSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 40 SEs in work 60% reduction China 0.3 United States and Canada 0.4 CAST 70 SEs 47 complete 23 in work 74% reduction Middle East 2.3 Asia 2.1 (Excluding China) COSCAP BAG COSCAP Gulf Africa 10.0 Latin America and Caribbean 2.1 Oceania 0.0 ASET PAAST CFIT and ALAR World 1.1 Accidents per million departures 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.

36. CAST Approach to Safety:A Three Stage Process Data Analysis Implement Safety Enhancements - U.S. Set Safety Priorities Agree on problems and interventions Influence Safety Enhancements - Worldwide Achieve consensus on priorities Integrate into existing work and distribute

37. Conclusions • CAST brings together all the key players – Air Carriers – Manufacturers – Employee Groups – Government • Predicted 74% risk reduction by 2020 • CAST is committed to worldwide participation • History shows focused action and introduction of new capabilities have led to large accident rate reductions

38. Thank you

39. Backup Slides

41. CAST sharing with COSCAP’s in Asia

43. CAST and GASR • CAST supports the Global Aviation Safety Roadmap (GASR) as an international strategic plan to promote aviation safety programs, which is complementary to the implementation of appropriate tactical solutions contained in the CAST Safety Plan

44. COSCAP History • COSCAP-South East Asia has been working on safety issues for the last seven years. • South East Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team (SEARAST): • reviews safety recommendations, • develops interventions, • tracks implementation. • Focused primarily on improving safety by reducing accident risk.

45. Global Aviation Safety Roadmap (GASR) • Proactive approach to aviation safety • Help coordinate and guide safety policies • 12 Focus Areas established • 4 Focused on States (government) • 1 Joint regional responsibilities • 8 Focused on industry (operators) • The Focus Areas are high level • Accident risk reduction not defined or identified • Best Practices identified for each Focus Area

46. 12 Global Safety Initiatives • The strategic action plan, ‘Implementation the Global Aviation Safety Roadmap’ defines: • Focus Areas. • Objective of each Focus Area. • Best Practices for each Focus Area. • Metrics for each Best Practices.

47. Metrics • In many instances the metrics link with: • ICAO USOAP audit results used when related to States. • IATA ISOA audit results used when related to industry. • ICAO Annexes, SARPS, Documents, etc. • Prior Roadmap Workshops have developed an implementation tool.

48. Example from Focus Area 1, International Standards Best Practices, Metrics and Implementation

49. Example from Focus Area 9, Inconsistent Adoption of Industry Best Practices Best Practices, Metrics and Implementation

50. Example from Focus Area 5, Inconsistent Coordination of Regional Programs Best Practices, Metrics and Implementation