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The Future of Conservatism in America: Emphasizing Real World Politics

The Future of Conservatism in America: Emphasizing Real World Politics by David Brady Hoover Institution and Stanford. National Greatness Conservatives. Anti-anti-government

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The Future of Conservatism in America: Emphasizing Real World Politics

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  1. The Future of Conservatism in America: Emphasizing Real World Politics by David Brady Hoover Institution and Stanford

  2. National Greatness Conservatives Anti-anti-government Lincoln -- TR Neoconservatism (Wilson) (Big government conservatism) (Borrow and spend conservatism)

  3. Paleo-Conservatives Isolationism Protectionism Nativism Culture of Life

  4. Libertarian Conservatives No Unconstitutional wars No Nation-building No attacks on civil liberties No bail-outs Abortion, Gay Marriage Porous Borders

  5. Deemphasize Social Issues “…the evangelical, right-wing, oogedy-boogedy branch of the GOP is what ails the conservative party and will continue to afflict and marginalize its constituents if reckoning doesn’t soon cometh. (Kathleen Parker) “The lethal problem for Republicans is that while religion of a particular kind is central to their party today, it is also toxic to moderate, independent, suburban, young and, more inclusively, educated voters.” (Jeffrey Hart)

  6. Not! “…was it the religious right that conceived and executed the disastrous Iraq war? Did preachers deregulate Wall Street? Did evangelical leader James Dobson screw up [FEMA’s] response to Hurricane Katrina? Jack Abramoff—did he concoct his crooked lobbying schemes during long protest vigils outside abortion clinics?(Rod Dreher)

  7. Sam’s Club Republicans Times have changed  working / lower middle class party income security family friendly wage subsidies tax reforms

  8. 2008 Republican Problems Hispanic 66% +13 18-29 66 12 $100,000 > 49 8 Independent 52 3 (12) Moderate 60 6 (7)

  9. Longer-Term Republican Problems Latinos + Young

  10. US Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2005 and Projected 2030 Source: US Bureau of the Census.

  11. ANCIENT WARRIORS: “THE CIVIL RIGHTS GERONTOCRACY” Andrew Young 76 John Lewis 68 Jesse Jackson 67 Al Sharpton 54

  12. JACKSON V. OBAMA “generational shift” “generation gap” “generational jealousy” “former big shot” v. “rising star” “aging lion” v. “young cub” “changing of the guard” “torch is passed”

  13. ANCIENT WARRIORS: FEMINISTS Betty Friedan (died 2006) 79 Gloria Steinem 74 Eleanor Smeal 69 Kate Michelman 66

  14. ANCIENT WARRIORS: RELIGIOUS RIGHT Pat Robertson 77 Louis Sheldon 74 Jerry Falwell (died 2007) 73 James Dobson 71 Richard Land 61

  15. ANCIENT WARRIORS: CONSERVATIVES Phyllis Schlafly 83 Richard Viguerie 74 Howard Phillips 67 Paul Weyrich 66 Grover Norquist 52

  16. American Generations (Strauss and Howe) Note: With the exception of “Younger -” and “Older -” Boomers, are the names conventionalized by Howe and Strauss’s book, Generations: Strauss, William & Howe, Neil. Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (Perennial, 1992). As for “Younger Boomers” and “Older Boomers”, enough research has been done to suggest that the two decades of Baby Boomers are different enough to merit being divided into distinct generational groups. 2009 Census data has been fitting within these definitions.

  17. The Federal Balance Sheet: 2011 Notes: U.S. household net worth from Federal Reserve, Balance Sheet of Households and nonprofit Organizations. Public debt from CBO, 2010 Long Term Budget Outlook. Unfunded liability statistics from 2010 Medicare Trustees Report.

  18. Interest Entitlements Non-DefenseDiscretionary Defense

  19. The Entitlement State At a Glance (2009) • 58.9% of all households receive entitlement benefits • Virtually all households with seniors receive benefits • 46.5% of all households without seniors receive benefits • Average senior household receives $28,500 • Average non-senior recipient household receives $13,700 • More than half of children are growing up in households that receive entitlement benefits

  20. Entitlement Reforms • Social Security: Slow Growth in Benefits for New Retirees • Medicare: Higher Copayments & More Choices • Medicaid & Other Welfare: Block Grants Plus Reforms

  21. Initial Social Security Monthly Benefits (in constant 2011 dollars) 71% 55% 40% Current Age * Average retired worker

  22. The Road Well Traveled 2010 CBO Projection of Debt to GDP 150% in 2030 100% in 2023 74% in 2030 67% in 2011 69% in 2023 The Road Less Traveled Projection of Debt to GDP with Reforms

  23. Real benefits stay the same • Long term solvency achieved • Savings: $8.2 Trillion (Present Value) Notes: Data derived from 2010 CBO Long Term Budget Outlook.

  24. Coinsurance Rates to 40% • Reduced Premiums • NPV Savings: $16.1 Trillion (Infinite Horizon) Status Quo: Low Coinsurance Rate/ High Premium Alternative: Higher Coinsurance Rate/ Lower Premium Notes: Data derived from 2010 CBO Long Term Budget Forecast and 2010 Medicare Trustees Report

  25. Status Quo: Obama Care Alternate: Repeal ObamaCare and 1 + MCPI Growth NPV from Repealing Obama Care: $8.2 Trillion NPV from Capping Medicaid Growth: $5.7 Trillion

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