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Defining tenable groundwater management

Defining tenable groundwater management. Suzanne Pierce, Marcel Dulay, John Sharp, Thomas Lowry, & Vincent Tidwell. (Photo courtesy of Austin History Center, PICA17272). Partially funded by an EPA STAR Fellowship. Approach. Stakeholder Elicitation.

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Defining tenable groundwater management

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  1. Defining tenable groundwater management Suzanne Pierce, Marcel Dulay, John Sharp, Thomas Lowry, & Vincent Tidwell (Photo courtesy of Austin History Center, PICA17272) Partially funded by an EPA STAR Fellowship

  2. Approach • Stakeholder Elicitation Define narratives, research as a reflective communal act, outcomes provide constraints • System architecture design Develop a mechanism for linking disparate information and transforming it into knowledge, outcome a decision system for groundwater problems • Linked Simulation-Optimization Quantifying alternatives within physical system boundaries, outcomes management options

  3. Conceptualizing the problem Available Yield Science-based Community Preferences Consensus Yield Effective Yield This is the basis for the development of a Groundwater Decision Support System (GWDSS)

  4. Quality of Life Good Water Quality Sprawl Elicitation for Science Models Benefits Consequences Future Historical Present

  5. Change in Recharge Water Budget Saturated Thickness Drought Triggers Spring flow Infrastructure losses Representing Values in the Model Model Representation Informed Choices Community Needs Reliability StakeholderValues Economic Impacts MODFLOW alone cannot address stakeholder needs! Unseen Threats Barton-centricity

  6. Interoperability Adaptor Stakeholder Server – Routing – Model Execution Decision Maker MySQL Science Analyst GW Adaptor PS Adaptor TS Interface Powersim TABU MODFLOW Framework for Integrated Modeling (Dulay, unpublished image)

  7. N ~5mi Melding Values and Groundwater Models • Can be identified during active consensus sessions AND • Include relational rules Systems dynamics helps find solutions that: MODFLOW MEETS SYSTEMS DYNAMICS

  8. Calibrating between models Calibration examples at the end of the 10 year transient simulation, for flows into and out of • zone 8, • average heads in each zone, and • spring flows The MODFLOW models are represented by the cross-hatched bars while the SD model values are represented by the checkerboard pattern.

  9. Sorting through the combinationsHow does an algorithm think? TABU’s memory system. . .is analogous to human memory process. GWDSS uses MASTS - A TABU search engine developed by Michael Ciarleglio, unpublished

  10. Barton Springs Decision Variables Objectives: 6 implemented to date (For spring flow, pumping, saturated thickness, wells, impervious cover) Spatial Relocation of Pumping • 20,000 cfd equally divided among cells • Search determines best re-allocation Drought Settings • % conservation measures expected of permittees • Sets levels for alarm and critical stages GWDSS uses MASTS - A TABU search engine developed by Michael Ciarleglio, unpublished

  11. Converting Concerns to Metrics Value ~1990 ~2000 C1 0.86 5.1 Impervious Cover Increase with Time Land use change is a significant concern and a primary influence for the Barton Springs Case 6000 4000 Acres 2000 0 AHC, Photo C00606 2003 1931 1985 1943 1967

  12. Stakeholder Profile: Priority Listing Spring Flow Impervious Cover Storage Drought Policy Well Reliability Total Extraction Spring flow Environmentalist – Jon Beall Values & Tradeoff Curves Spring Flow to Impervious Cover 50 Q (Billion ft3/month) 0 1922 2002 Physical System Preference System Objective: Constraints: Scenario Settings: Maximize Spring Flow Low Impervious Cover, High Drought Reductions Conservative Urban Growth, Dry Climate

  13. Stakeholder Profile: Priority Listing Total Extraction Drought Policy Well Reliability Storage Spring Flow Impervious Cover Water Budget Groundwater Conservation District – Brian Hunt X 4 5 Aquifer Performance 3 6 9 2 Increased pumping in Zones 10, 1, and 4 favors increased spring flows at Barton Springs 10 1 8 7 11 N Objective: Constraints: Scenario Settings: Maximize Total Pumping Community Driven, Existing Legal Permits Dry Climate, Growth Scenarios, Well Relocation Photo by Gregg Eckhardt

  14. Comparing Alternatives – Active Negotiation With the GWDSS integrated format a series of multi-disciplinary methods can be implemented rapidly to bring science into stakeholder discussions

  15. Integrated Modeling to Support Rapid Dispute Prevention

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