Modeling Application Process

1. Modeling Application Process Session 2 Laura Boothe Mike Abraczinskas George Bridgers NC Division of Air Quality Attainment Planning Branch September 30, 2004

2. Topics of Discussion • Reasoning behind photochemical grid modeling approach to SIP development • Photochemical grid modeling overview • Illustrate how modeling can be used to evaluate control strategies for various applications • NC’s Early Action Compact (EAC) Ozone modeling results

3. State of the Air – O3 • 2001-2003 Ozone Design Values – Each Monitor

4. 2001-2003 Ozone Design Values(Highest value per county)

5. What does Non-Attainment mean? • EPA label saying air quality does not meet health standards • Requires State to develop a plan showing what control measures are needed to meet the standard • Requires transportation conformity • Requires new source review on new major industrial sources and major modifications on existing sources

6. Nonattainment Boundaries • Evaluate which monitors are violating • Determine appropriate boundaries • Conduct public meetings • Coordinate with other agencies impacted by nonattainment designations (NCDOT and NCDOC, Local Government)

7. State Implementation Plan(SIP) • States are required to develop a strategy or implementation plan to demonstrate attainment of any criteria pollutant violating the NAAQS • NC moved forward with 8-hour ozone SIP planning despite legal issues with the actual 8-hour ozone standard • Recognition that most of NC would not attain the 8-hour ozone standard when designations finally occur

8. Goals of NC SIP Development • To identify the appropriate emission controls necessary to attain the 8-hour ozone standard statewide • To define any additional emission controls necessary to address the 1-hour ozone violations in Charlotte • To demonstrate a robust attainment strategy that will maintain compliance in the face of future year growth

9. Why Use a Photochemical Grid Modeling System? • More complex than trajectory style analysis or source dispersion modeling because of detailed chemistry and multiple emission sources (point, mobile, and area) • Ability to establish a base/control case that is verified with known data and the ability to vary the emission inputs of this base to assess control strategies • Detailed process analysis can be performed to follow every chemical process back to originating point(s)

10. SparseMatrixOperatorKernelEmissions Emissions Processor Meteorological Model SMOKE MM5 MultiscaleAirQualitySImulationPlatform Photochemical Model MAQSIP Temporally and Spatially Gridded Air Quality Output Data Photochemical Grid Modeling System

11. Current Modeling Projects • Early Action Compact (EAC) modeling • Addresses 8-hour ozone • Fayetteville, Triad, Unifour, Mountain (total: 19 counties) • VISTAS modeling • Addresses regional haze • Given the “one-atmosphere” modeling approach, this will be used for PM2.5 and Ozone to the extent possible

12. Early Action Compact • On June 19, 2002, EPA Region 6 endorsed Texas’ Protocol for an Early Action Compact • Protocol deals with attainment of the 8-hr National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone • Calls for “early” SIPs and associated controls coupled with a deferral of the effective date of future EPA ozone nonattainment (NA) designations.

13. Who is Eligible to Participate? • Area may apply for “Early Action 8-hr Compact” if… • Currently designated attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard • Air quality monitors show attainment of the 1-hour standard • Air quality approaches or exceeds the 8-hour standard

14. Compact Requirements - Milestones and Reporting • Completion of emissions inventories and modeling • Adoption of control strategies that demonstrate attainment • Completion and adoption of the early action SIP revision • Attainment not later than December 31, 2007 • Post-attainment demonstration and plan updates

15. EAC Timeline • December 31, 2002 - Compact signed by all parties in MSA (local officials, state air quality agency, and EPA Region) • June 16, 2003 - Submit list of local control measures being considered • March 31, 2004 - Local plan submitted to the state • April 2004 – EPA designates “Compact Areas” as nonattainment, but defers effective date for these areas

16. EAC Timeline (continued) • December 31, 2004 - State adopts control measures into SIP & submits to EPA for approval • 2005 – Areas implement control measures • June 30, 2006 - Progress assessment and report to EPA • December 2007 – Areas attain 8-hr ozone NAAQS

17. VISTAS • Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast • Regional Planning Organization established under the 1999 Regional Haze Rule • Collaborative effort of States and Tribes to support management of regional haze and related air quality issues in the Southeastern US. • No independent regulatory authority and no authority to direct or establish State or Tribal law or policy.

18. VISTAS • NCDAQ is a technical leader in VISTAS • Shelia Holman, Technical Analysis Workgroup Chair • Brock Nicholson, Planning Workgroup Co-Chair • Mike Abraczinskas, Technical Lead for Meteorological Modeling • George Bridgers, Technical Lead for Characterizing Meteorology and Conceptual Descriptions • Laura Boothe, Technical Lead for Emissions

19. Modeling Application Process • Select areas or domains of interest • Select representative ozone episodes • Prepare and refine meteorological simulations • Prepare and refine emission model inputs • Apply photochemical modeling system • Performance evaluation on episodes • Prepare current and future year emissions(Projected and Potential Control Strategies) • Re-apply photochemical modeling system • Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies • Apply the attainment test

20. Modeling Application Process • Select areas or domains of interest • Select representative ozone episodes • Prepare and refine meteorological simulations • Prepare and refine emission model inputs • Apply photochemical modeling system • Performance evaluation on episodes • Prepare current and future year emissions(Projected and Potential Control Strategies) • Re-apply photochemical modeling system • Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies • Apply the attainment test

21. North Carolina 1995 MAQSIP Domain

22. North Carolina 1996 MAQSIP Domain

23. North Carolina 1997 MAQSIP Domain

24. Grid Structure

25. Grid Structure, 4km grid spacing

26. Modeling Application Process • Select areas or domains of interest • Select representative ozone episodes • Prepare and refine meteorological simulations • Prepare and refine emission model inputs • Apply photochemical modeling system • Performance evaluation on episodes • Prepare current and future year emissions(Projected and Potential Control Strategies) • Re-apply photochemical modeling system • Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies • Apply the attainment test

27. Episode SelectionFor EAC Modeling • Draft USEPA guidance suggests: • Variety of meteorological scenarios when 8-hr maxima exceed 84 ppb • Choose episodes containing days with observed 8-hr maxima “close to” (+/- 10 ppb) the design value straddling the period from which the episode was drawn • Minimum of 3 days Final guidance may suggest much longer periods. Would apply to non EAC ozone modeling.

28. Episode SelectionFor EAC Modeling • Four unique ozone episodes selected • July 10-15, 1995 • June 20-30, 1996 (Broken into two episodes) • July 10-15, 1997 • Regional 1 and 8-hour ozone exceedences during all four episodes • Each episode spread across multiple days • Variety of meteorological scenarios(Stagnate High Pressure, Pre/Post Frontal Passage, Tropical Wx Influence) • 8-hour ozone maximums were representative of the design values at the monitoring sites throughout NC

29. Looking ahead…Episode SelectionFor 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 • 8-hour ozone modeling analyses will likely include an entire ozone season • May – September 2002 • PM2.5 modeling analyses will be done for the entire year of 2002

30. Modeling Application Process • Select areas or domains of interest • Select representative ozone episodes • Prepare and refine meteorological simulations • Prepare and refine emission model inputs • Apply photochemical modeling system • Performance evaluation on episodes • Prepare current and future year emissions(Projected and Potential Control Strategies) • Re-apply photochemical modeling system • Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies • Apply the attainment test

31. Meteorological Modeling • Gridded and hourly variables are needed to simulate advection, diffusion, deposition, chemical transformation, etc. • Wind • Temperature • Water-vapor concentration • Pressure • Vertical diffusivity (effective mixing height) • Cloud cover • Rainfall rate

32. Meteorological Modeling • Several iterations may be needed to simulate the meteorological mechanisms that are important to high ozone events • Consider NC’s diverse geographical landscapes • Physical parameterizations that may work well in the NC Mountains may not work in the NC Coastal Plain • Compromise, compromise, compromise

33. Meteorological Model

34. Meteorological Model Performance (Example from EAC modeling)

35. Meteorological Model Performance (Example from EAC modeling)

36. Meteorological Model Performance (Example from VISTAS modeling)

37. Meteorological Model Performance (Example from VISTAS modeling)

38. Modeling Application Process • Select areas or domains of interest • Select representative ozone episodes • Prepare and refine meteorological simulations • Prepare and refine emission model inputs • Apply photochemical modeling system • Performance evaluation on episodes • Prepare current and future year emissions(Projected and Potential Control Strategies) • Re-apply photochemical modeling system • Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies • Apply the attainment test

39. Emissions Requirements • Hourly, gridded, speciated emissions are needed • Point sources: utilities, refineries, industrial sources, etc. • Area sources: gas stations, dry cleaners, fires, etc. • Motor vehicles: cars, trucks, buses, etc. • Nonroad mobile sources: agricultural equipment, recreational marine, lawn mowers, construction equipment, etc. • Biogenic: trees, vegetation, crops

40. Gridding Speciation Temporal SMOKE Emission Model Photochemical Model EmissionInventory Emission Processing

41. Gridding • Allocates emissions to the cells of the grid • Created for each grid modeled • Based on 1990 census data (for EAC modeling) • 2000 census data for VISTAS modeling • Added gridding surrogates for mobile • Travel Demand Areas - created surrogates based on TDM link data for all 12 road types (for EAC modeling) • Rest of NC - created surrogates based on NCDOT digitized data for top 6 road types (for EAC modeling)

42. Speciation • Converts Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC’s) into carbon bond IV species • Updated default profiles to reflect default changes made EPA’s SPECIATE model • Created new speciation profiles for wood furniture finishing based on NC source specific data

43. Temporal • Adjusts the emissions to the month of the year, day of the week and to the hour of the day • Adjusted highway mobile source profiles to reflect weekly and hourly profiles provided by NCDOT

44. Old EPA default weekday diurnal profile for Mobile sources

45. Weekday diurnal profile for Mobile Based on data from NCDOT Used in EAC modeling

46. Weekend diurnal profile for Mobile Used in EAC modeling

47. Emission Inventory • 5 Basic Source Categories • Point Sources • Area Sources • Nonroad Mobile Sources • Highway Mobile Sources • Biogenics • 4 Types of Inventories • Base Case or Episodic • Current Year • Future Year • Control Strategy Sensitivities can be done on any existing inventory

48. Point SourcesEpisodic Base Case EAC • North Carolina • Started with ‘95 Ozone Transport Assessment Group (OTAG) inventory • Adjusted large NOx and VOC non-utility source emissions to match NCDAQ’s Air Quality Emission Inventory (AQEI) • Utility source emissions are Continuous Emissions Monitoring (CEM) data for actual episode days • Other States • SIP Call ‘95 base inventory for non-utility • CEM data for most utilities

49. Area SourcesEpisodic Base Case EAC • North Carolina • Calculated based on NC State specific data (i.e., employment data, population, etc.) • Backcasted the 2000 EI to episode periods using BEA data. • Other States • SIP Call ‘95 base inventory

50. Nonroad Mobile Sources Episodic Base Case EAC • Railroad Locomotives & Aircraft Engines • NC - Based on State specific data (i.e., diesel fuel consumed, landing/take off data) • Other States - SIP Call ‘95 base inventory • Other Nonroad Equipment • Based on draft version of EPA’s NONROAD 2002 mobile model