Natural Hazards and Disasters Chapter 18 The Future: Where Do We Go From Here?

1. Natural Hazards and Disasters Chapter 18 The Future: Where Do We Go From Here?

2. We Are The Problem Problems arise when people put themselves where they can be impacted by major natural events Simple solution would be to keep people from hazardous locations Towns were located where suitable for earlier basic needs, but modern infrastructure is too entrenched for easy relocations People continue to make poor choices, based on leisure, recreation, aesthetics People understand that there are risks in life, and choose to accept some of them, or believe that risked event “won’t happen to me”

3. Hazard Assessment and Mitigation Underlying problem is belief that we can control nature Short-term ‘cures’ are seen as solution to nature’s rampages Fail to see that the more we hold back the effect of large natural event, the worse the effect will eventually be Consequences of major hurricane impact to New Orleans were long recognized, and warnings continue to come regularly, but no large-scale improvements have been implemented – preferred approach is to react after disaster ‘Soft’ solutions include zoning to prevent building, strict building codes ‘Hard’ solutions include installing levees, concrete barriers, riprap, catchment basins and landslide drains

4. Societal Attitudes • Collective memories of disasters only go back a few years • Who should be responsible? • Seller, purchaser, developer or agent, or government • Caveat emptor: ‘buyer beware’ • Seller often held responsible if aware • Government held responsible because deeper pockets than others • Zoning restrictions are often limited

5. After a Disaster Homeowners’ behavior may contribute to damage Property rights advocates maintain that landowners should be permitted to do whatever they wish with their property If governments restrict use of land, may be reverse condemnation States, local governments and individuals often believe they are entitled to federal funds to rebuild and repair Federal policy has shifted to mitigation, with funds for rebuilding only in safer location or in safer way Insurance companies have begun to refuse to renew policies or dramatically increased policies in dangerous areas

6. Education Anti-taxation attitudes should make people receptive to reducing costs in futile efforts to control nature Billions of tax dollars are spent to protect inherently high-risk areas for benefit of few Solution should be to educate public about natural hazards and processes Problems may be political or financial People often do not want to be educated about natural hazards – window of opportunity is within a year or so of major natural catastrophe

7. Different Ground Rules for the Poor Food and shelter dictate where people live, in areas of poverty Poor people forced to live on dangerous hillsides Reduction of vulnerability to natural hazards depends on cultural, economic and political factors, with poor often left to fend for themselves Thousands of people killed by 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami because of poor living conditions, lack of warning Many residents of New Orleans could not afford to evacuate, despite warnings of Hurricane Katrina’s impact

8. Worse Problems to Come? Global temperatures are rising due to increase of greenhouse gas emissions Millions will die by increased incidence of storms and coastal flooding, heat stroke, dehydration, famine and disease, along with wars over water, food, heating fuel and other resources Global warming will lead to more rapid erosion of coastlines, more extremes in weather  more landslides, floods, hurricanes and wildfires

9. Worse Problems to Come? Increase in hurricane activity is attributed to increase in sea surface temperature Poorer countries sustain much greater disaster losses relative to their total economic viability – more likely to remain mired in poverty Need to do more to live with nature, rather than fight it