Scotland’s multiple demographies: past and present

1. Scotland’s multiple demographies: past and present Michael Anderson (with some data from Donald Morse [UoE] and Nick Wright [GRO(S)], and mapping by Corinne Roughley [University of Cambridge])

2. Scotland’s demography has longstanding differences from England’s. • But has also been internally highly diverse, with notable continuities over time • This diversity is a key theme of my current book project on ‘Scotland’s population histories’.

3. Examples discussed here: • Population density and population change • Patterns of migration • Changes in underlying natural increase • But NO TIME FOR e.g.: • the major differences in marriage, • or in non-marital fertility, • or in causes of death

4. Population density 2001 (per sq km) <5 per sq km: ≥83,000 (<2% of pop; 46% of area) >50 per sq km: (90% of pop; 15% of area)

5. Population density 1801 (per sq km) Population density 2001 (per sq km) <5 per sq km ≤85,000 (5% of pop; 32% of area) ≥83,000 (<2% of pop; 46% of area) >50 per sq km (44% of pop; 6% of area) (90% of pop; 15% of area)

6. Peak population decade Even in rural areas, note: Diverse patterns in north-west Contrast: Argyll and west Perth with north-east and south-west And note: pre-1981 fall in some of Central Belt

7. Percent pop change 1901-1911 Percent pop change 1951-1991 (decadal means) Note: declines in most rural areas Note: growth in north-west + city suburbs but growth in ports and Central Belt but falls in city cores + north-east and south

8. Percent pop change 1991-2008 Percent pop change 1951-1991 (decadal means) Note: recovery in many rural areas Note: growth in north-west + city suburbs and marked fall in Greater Glasgow but falls in city cores + north-east and south

9. The dominant role of out-migration in Scotland’s demography • Populations always highly mobile internally • Tradition of emigration from at least 13th century • Net emigration since 1830 at least six million • But since c2003 this changed - Scotland became consistently a net IN-migration country. • But what has this mean for INTERNAL migration?

10. Net migration by parish 1860s Net migration by county 1900sper 1000 population per annum per 1000 population per annum Only very limited in-movement, Picture largely unchanged mostly to Central Belt

11. Net landward migration 1950s Net burghal migration 1950sper 1000 population per annum per 1000 population per annum Net outflow from almost all rural areas But some outflow from urban area of most counties also

12. Net L/A migration 1981-88 Net L/A migration 2001-08per 1000 population per annum per 1000 population per annum Widespread rural/suburb in-movement Marked inflow into most areas but Central Belt and cities net losers except 3 cities and West Central Belt

13. Mortality, fertility, and crude and ‘underlying’ natural change • And yet, in spite of the out-migration, there was a long-run increase in the overall urban-industrial share • At some periods, there was net migration into some urban-industrial areas • But, crucially, until recently, crude natural increase was persistently positive in most urban areas - even in 1930s

14. Net natural change per 1000 population per annum 1900s 1860s Note: low NI in Highlands/Islands Note: positive NI almost everywhere Note: high NI especially in Central Belt - but lower in north-west + cities

15. Net natural change per 1000 population per annum 1900s 2001-05 Note: low NI in Highlands/Islands Negative NI almost everywhere Note: high NI especially in Central Belt - but especially in rural areas

16. But much of this results from different age profiles - compare CDR with age/sex-standardised DR for 2001-2005 Note especially West Lothian and Western Isles

17. To get a better indication of how different areas are performing at the person-level, look at SBR and SDR 1981-1985 2001-2005 Note underlying strong performance of Only rural areas and city environments rural areas and city fringes and poor are positive, while West Central Belt and of cities esp Glasgow negative. NB also W. Isles

18. Examples of my earlier work on this topic (with Donald J Morse), 'High fertility, high emigration, low nuptiality: adjustment processes in Scotland's demographic experience, 1861-1914', Parts I and II, Population Studies Vol 47 [1993], pp 5-26 and pp 319-343. ‘One Scotland or several: the historical evolution of Scotland’s population over the past century and its implications for the future’, in Robert Wright (ed) Scotland’s Demographic Challenge (Scottish Economic Policy Network) [2004], pp 8-33. (with Nick Wright) ’Scotland’s population – local perspectives’, in Scotland’s Population 2006: The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends, 152nd edition, [2007] chapter 2, pp. 51-83 (with linked on-line datasets).