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Uncertainty assessment “Case: Particulate matter”

Jeannette Beck, Environmental Assessment Agency, MNP. Uncertainty assessment “Case: Particulate matter”. Communication on uncertainties?. Sweet fruit. Bulk of fruit. Low-hanging fruit. Lying fruit. Case: Particulate Matter in the Netherlands.

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Uncertainty assessment “Case: Particulate matter”

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  1. Jeannette Beck, Environmental Assessment Agency, MNP Uncertainty assessment“Case: Particulate matter”

  2. Communication on uncertainties? Sweet fruit Bulk of fruit Low-hanging fruit Lying fruit Jeannette Beck, MNP, Intarese Copenhagen, 17 October 2007

  3. Case: Particulate Matter in the Netherlands • 1999: EU air quality norms for Particulate Matter • 2001: Limit values have been implemented in Dutch legislation • Message RIVM/MNP (1997- 2005): Limit value is exceeded in large areas of NL → 2020 • Litigation section of the Council of State • Judicial regime: construction and expansion plans blocked due to conflicts with Air Quality Decree • 2005: more than 40 projects lodged • Survey: 100,000 residences, 4500 hectares of industrial development faced with cancellation Jeannette Beck, MNP, Intarese Copenhagen, 17 October 2007

  4. Dilemmas & sleepless nights Uncertainties are 10-20% (3-6 μg/m3), but • Plans are rejected on 0.1 μg/m3 • Reaction of society: Call for more detail (street level) Jeannette Beck, MNP, Intarese Copenhagen, 17 October 2007

  5. Improve transparancy and quality control • “Particulate Matter: a closer look” • What do we know, what don’t we know? • 25,000 downloads • Background report • Website: www.mnp.nl/gcn.html • Scientific international review of our models • Review and advice of the logistics • Many other reports: PM10, methods, policy support • Presentations about the methods • Protocol ‘New insights’ Jeannette Beck, MNP, Intarese Copenhagen, 17 October 2007

  6. Role of MNP and Ministry of the Environment in policy process • Agreement on responsibilities • MNP • MNP produces large scale concentration maps every year • Past (2006) and Future (2010-2020) • Ministry • Choice of scenario • Used by local authorities: plans and programmes • Reporting: Cities  Provinces  Federal  Brussels Jeannette Beck, MNP, Intarese Copenhagen, 17 October 2007

  7. MNP’s communication on exceedances Jeannette Beck, MNP, Intarese Copenhagen, 17 October 2007

  8. Still responsible? simplification wanted • Policy process goes beyond scientific uncertainties • Administrators shift the responsibility on to science • New law on air pollution • Request for too much detail  Looking for a way out of the swamp • Simple rules (50 km/h) • Less tailor-made solutions for specific circumstances/ locations • Not possible in current legislation Jeannette Beck, MNP, Intarese Copenhagen, 17 October 2007

  9. Thank you for your attention Jeannette Beck, MNP, Intarese Copenhagen, 17 October 2007

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