Cost of Adaptation in Coastal Zones of Africa

1. Cost of Adaptation in Coastal Zones of Africa UNESCO African Ministerial Conference on the Environment Special Session on Climate Change Nairobi, Kenya, 25-29 May 2009 Prepared and researched by: Presented by: Jurgen Theiss Isabelle Niang IOC of UNESCO IOC of UNESCO j.theiss@theissresearch.org i.niang@unesco.org

2. The African Union Commission mandated UNESCO “The African Union Commission welcomes the initiative of UNESCO on preparation and involvement of African scientists and negotiators in the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, 2009.” The African Union Commission seeks network partners to work beyond COP 15. Please contact us.

3. Our approach We have been talking and listening in Africa. Here is what we have learned and concluded about perceptions of and threats to Africa’s coastal zones.

4. Our learning and conclusion Building Africa’s capacity to plan coastal activities today, will lower costs of adaptation tomorrow. Many benefits unrelated to climate change are waiting to be gained.

5. Climate Change and Coastal Zones Features of coastal zones figure in all IPCC Fourth Assessment Report sectors: • Water • Agriculture • Infrastructure/Settlement • Human Health • Tourism • Transport • Energy Addressing coastal zones holistically will aid the development of a comprehensive plan of climate change adaptation in the coastal zones.

6. Adapt to what? Sea level rise From African scientists to African negotiators, all worry about sea level rise. (Communications with African experts; UNESCO-IOC 2009, African Oceans and Coasts) “Sea level rising faster than expected” and “may well exceed one meter by 2100” (Quote and figure: Stefan Rahmstorf, March 2009)

7. Adapt to what? Implications of sea level rise • Permanent flooding • Coastal erosion • Salinization of drinking water Other implications of climate change in the coastal zones • More severe and frequent storms • Rising coastal ocean temperature • Salinification and acidification of the coastal ocean • Africa did not cause the climate to change. • Yet Africa has to deal with its impacts, and is more vulnerable than most. • Can we turn the threat around by innovating the best adaptations?

8. How important are Coastal Zones? Coastal zones are “most important areas in the world to humans” (FAO, 2005, Coastal GTOS – Strategic design and phase 1 implementation plan) 2005: 50% of population living within 200 km of coast, 40% of population derive livelihoods from coastal & marine ecosystems. (Advisory Committee on the Protection of the Sea) 2025: 75% of population living within 200 km of coast. An unbroken chain of cities from Accra to the Niger Delta? (UNESCO, 2003, Environment and development in coastal regions and in small islands) Life in the coastal zone: • Fisheries • Trade (e.g. harbours, coastal roads) • Tourism • Biodiversity • Culture (e.g. monuments, traditional practices)

9. Losses in Coastal Zones I Loss of Land • Displacement of populations (emotional distress, loss of jobs, social conflicts) • Loss of agricultural land • Loss of infrastructure • Loss of cultural sites (next three slides) Loss of biodiversity • Loss of fish stock and habitat that replenishes it • Loss of tourism Loss of water supplies (intrusion of salt water) Loss of lives (increased storm surges and flooding)

10. What is the cost of loosing an ancient graveyard? • Ancient royal graves in the Bay of Loango, Republic of Congo

11. What is the cost of loosing a cultural heritage? • Island of Mozambique • UNESCO World Heritage Site since 1991)

12. What is the cost of loosing a sacred site? • Libation near Eastern coastal forest zone

13. Losses in the coastal zones II Besides loss of land (previous slides) Loss of biodiversity • Loss of fish stock and habitat that replenishes it • Loss of tourism Loss of water supplies (intrusion of salt water) Loss of lives (increased storm surges and flooding) The African Process of the Advisory Committee of the Protection of the Seas addresses these potential losses with five working groups on: • Coastal erosion • Tourism • Sustainable use of living resources • Pollution • Management of key habitats How are these losses enumerated, and how costly is protection?

14. A B • LOSSES IN WATER SUPPLIES Impacts of sea level rise on a coastal aquifer at the head of the Cap Vert peninsula FEFLOW Model Dissolved salts isovalue curves (mg.l-1) A: now B: with a 0.5 m sea level rise Values > 15,000 mg.l-1 Isovalue of 1,000 mg.l-1

15. Cost of losses and protection National Communications have enumerated costs of losses and protection Cost of losses • Destruction of coastal infrastructure: US$ 400 million or 2.2 X GDP (Comoros, 2002) • Inaction: US$ 2.9 billion (Egypt, 1999) • Damage due to sea level rise in Tewalet area:US$ 14 million (Eritrea, 2002) • Loss of land due to sea level rise: US$ 217 million (The Gambia, 2003) Inaction is costly by any standards Costs of protection: • Protecting entire coastline of Tanzania: US$ 7 billion (Tanzania, 2003) • Building a wall along entire coast of Eritrea:US$ 50-500 million (Eritrea, 2002) • Full protection of Sierra Leone coast: US$ 1.5 billion (Sierra Leone, 2007) Is building sea walls the best response?

16. Adaptation possibilities Change current human activity that will stop: • Beach dredging • Development in low-lying areas or close to the beach Build protection e.g. sea walls Sea wall had to be raised to protect Stone Town in Zanzibar, a UNESCO World Heritage site, from flooding. Comprehensive approach(outlined in the next several slides)

17. In every crisis there is opportunity. Kila lenye ubaya halikosi wema.

18. Opportunities General capacity building Needed to adapt to climate change in the coastal zones and generates many other benefits Improving the coordination between all stakeholder of the coastal zones Makes the coastal zones naturally more resilient Other benefit: Policies are mutually beneficial (e.g. fisheries and tourism benefit) Preparing financial institutions for financial flows Better management of financial flows to adapt to climate change Other benefit: Generally improved financial sector (e.g. benefits trade) Diversifying the economy Jobs for those that lost jobs (e.g. erosion of agricultural land) Other benefit: Further development of the manufacturing and services industries Strengthening institutes of marine sciences Science input to policy from Africa’s own scientists Other benefit: Produces scientists benefiting also other sectors (e.g. telecommunication)

19. Opportunities Strengthening of institutes of marine sciences Example: Capacity-building in coastal modelling at the Institute of Marine Sciences in Zanzibar, Tanzania (www.ZanzibarProject.org) Zanzibar magnification Simulation of one typical year (Arrows: Ocean currents; Color: Ocean temperature) (Zavala-Garay, J. and Mahongo, S., 2008) • Beach erosion • Pollution dispersion • Coral reef health (coral larvae dispersion) Coastal models help investigate:

20. OpportunitiesPreservation of Africa’s heritage Needed to adapt to climate change in the coastal zones and a worthwhile effort in itself Preserving and/or restoring the natural resilience of the coastal zones UNESCO’s programmes in Africa help find workable approaches, e.g. UNESCO’s MAB Biosphere Reserves UNESCO’s Africa Bio Carbon Initiative (new) Preserving indigenous and traditional knowledge UNESCO’s programmes in Africa help, e.g. UNESCO’s World Heritage sites UNESCO’s Frontlines of Climate Change

21. Financing Facilitating the funding management UNFCCC’s Financial Needs Assessment programme Assists in determining the financial needs for adapting to climate change Close collaboration with the Finance Ministries Allows better integration of climate change issues in economic planning (Watkiss, P., 2009, Economics of climate change: Key messages) Capacity-building in financial institutions Ensures preparedness for financial flows for adaptation to climate change (Watkiss, P., 2009, Economics of climate change: Key messages)

22. Financing Funds Architecture of the new climate funds(www.climatefundsupdate.org) Explained by previous UNEP presentation Some funds have been dispersed, but most represent only pledges (Watkiss, P, 2009, Personal communication) Besides these major climate funds, other funds are also available (next slide).

23. Financing More funds National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) funds Only 1 in Africa for coastal zones CDM Projects Only 2% in Africa Funds for technology transfer / knowledge sharing Governments need to plan coasts as low interest from private sector Fund under the 2003 Convention for the Safeguarding of the Intangible Cultural Heritage International Assistance Funds under the 1972 World Heritage Convention Funds from socially responsible local businesses UNESCO’s Frontlines of Climate Change

24. Conclusion • Climate change impacts the coastal zones in many facets • Planning and early adaptation reduces losses and generates other benefits • Large pledges (Can they be converted into funds?) If we can help you Prepare Coastal Issues for COP 15 and beyond Please contact us at AUC / UNESCO

25. Main contributors