Transnational Politics

1. Transnational Politics Global networks of violence

2. Today • Dark networks and violent transnationalism • Drug cartels and terrorism • Drug cartels: economic gain • Terrorism: political gain • Reading: • Fiona B. Adamson: ‘Globalization, Transnational Political Mobilization, and networks of Violence’ Hans Peter Schmitz

3. Transnational activism and national security • How does transnational activism change national security policies? • How can insights from the transnational advocacy literature help us understand violent networks? Hans Peter Schmitz

4. Three sections • Adamson, p. 33 • First section: New incentives and opportunities for transnational activists • Second section: Empirical examples • Third section: Four distinct ways in which transnational violent networks affect national security Hans Peter Schmitz

5. Incentives to move beyond the state • Mobility of people. • Migration – legal and illegal/human trafficking. • Leads to more transnational ties across societies. • Increased connectivity: decreased costs of communication. • Mobility of capital/goods. • Informal economic networks and remittances. • Drug smuggling. • Mobility of ideas and identities. • ‘Virtually’ defined communities. • New technologies enable transnational communities. Hans Peter Schmitz

6. Pull and push factors: fomenting nationalism • Globalization provides ‘pull’ factors enabling transnational activism. • Political grievances are the ‘push’ factors behind the formation of transnational networks (p. 37, boomerang pattern). • Examples: Kosovo, Kurdistan, Tamil nationalists, Hamas. • Using violence to provoke an international intervention. Hans Peter Schmitz

7. Do diasporas promote civil conflict? • Diasporas > civil conflict? • ??? > terrorist strategies? • Transnational resources > domestic success? • Question: why did some of these movements for national independence succeed and others fail? Hans Peter Schmitz

8. Defining Terrorism Premeditated act(s) of violence against civilians during peace time with the goal of spreading anxiety and fear. The victims of terrorism are usually not identical with the targets. Terrorists choose victims with the aim of maximizing psychological effects on bystanders. Terrorism is a tactic/means used to promote political goals. Terrorism is the peace time equivalent of war crimes. Hans Peter Schmitz

9. Three consequences • Challenging the separation of internal and external security • Domestic use of the military • Transnationalization of internal security forces • New threats from weak states, not strong states. • Anarchy emerges within states. • Forcing states to internalize global security. • Ongoing civil war on a global scale. Hans Peter Schmitz

10. The Power of Non-State Actors • Although non-state actors rarely control territory or populations (as states do), they have gained authority and control over political outcomes. • Multinational corporations: Market power based on financial means. • NGOs: Moral power based on “shaming”, agenda-setting, and expertise. • Criminal and terrorist networks: Coercive power based on violence and corruption.

11. Success of Transnational Violence • Law enforcement is limited by state borders, drug cartels and human traffickers are not. • Transnational Crime Networks interact with legitimate economy/politics in important ways: • Money-laundering (legalize profits; estimated at $1 to 2 trillion annually) • Corruption (avoid arrests, etc.)

12. Explaining Transnational Illicit Networks • State failures: Proliferation of small arms; border controls; high seas. • Globalization: increasing and faster financial transactions; weakening state controls. • Global inequalities: Coca is a viable crop, because licit products can not be sold to protected markets in the US and Europe.

13. World Drug Report, 2007 • United Nations Office on Crime and Drugs • First paragraph from the Executive Summary: “The world’s drug problem is being contained. In 2005/06, the global markets for the main illicit drugs – the opiates, cocaine, cannabis, and amphetamine-type stimulants – remained largely stable. Particularly notable is the stabilisation seen in the cannabis market, which had been expanding rapidly for some time. In line with a long-term trend, the share of total drug production that is seized by law enforcement has also increased – some 42 per cent of global cocaine production and 26 per cent of global heroin production never made it to consumers” (p. 7).

14. World Drug Report, 2007 • Last paragraph from the Executive Summary: • “The two examples discussed above highlight two extremes of a spectrum: on the one hand, the highly organized groups active in shipping multi-million dollar consignments of cocaine from Colombia to the USA; on the other, the many, uncoordinated players who, responding to market incentives, move heroin from Afghanistan to Russia. It appears that the two regions are vaguely converging, however - cocaine trafficking has become less organized since the days of the Medellin and Cali Cartels, and the heroin trade in Afghanistan, is growing increasingly and is getting more organized” (p. 21).

15. Is there a global drug problem? World population: 6.5 billion Age, 15-64: 4.2 billion (100 per cent) Non-drug users: 4 billion (95 per cent) Drug users (at least once a year): 200 million (4.8 per cent) Problem drug users: 25 million (.6 percent)

16. Changes in the use of cocaine, 2005 (or latest year available), WDR (ES), p. 13 Hans Peter Schmitz

17. Changes in the use of cannabis, 2005 (or latest year available), WDR (ES), p. 16 Hans Peter Schmitz