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Nanotechnology, replication, and low cost manufacturing

Nanotechnology, replication, and low cost manufacturing. Ralph C. Merkle, Ph.D. Principal Fellow. Health, wealth and atoms. Arranging atoms. Diversity Precision Cost. Richard Feynman,1959. There’s plenty of room at the bottom. 1980’s, 1990’s. Experiment and theory. Binnig and Rohrer.

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Nanotechnology, replication, and low cost manufacturing

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  1. Nanotechnology, replication, and low cost manufacturing Ralph C. Merkle, Ph.D. Principal Fellow

  2. Health, wealth and atoms

  3. Arranging atoms • Diversity • Precision • Cost

  4. Richard Feynman,1959 There’s plenty of room at the bottom

  5. 1980’s, 1990’s Experiment and theory Binnig and Rohrer

  6. President Clinton, 2000 “Imagine the possibilities: materials with ten times the strength of steel and only a small fraction of the weight -- shrinking all the information housed at the Library of Congress into a device the size of a sugar cube -- detecting cancerous tumors when they are only a few cells in size.” The National Nanotechnology Initiative

  7. Positional assembly

  8. Experimental 100 microns

  9. Experimental H. J. Lee and W. Ho, SCIENCE 286, p. 1719, NOVEMBER 1999

  10. Theoretical

  11. Self replication A redwood tree (sequoia sempervirens) 112 meters tall Redwood National Park

  12. Complexity (bits) • Von Neumann's constructor 500,000 • Mycoplasma genitalia 1,160,140 • Drexler's assembler 100,000,000 • Human 6,400,000,000 • NASA over 100,000,000,000

  13. Self replication The Von Neumann architecture Universal Computer Universal Constructor http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/vonNeumann.html

  14. Self replication Replicating bacterium DNA DNA Polymerase

  15. Self replication Drexler’s proposal for an assembler http://www.foresight.org/UTF/Unbound_LBW/chapt_6.html

  16. Molecular constructor Molecular constructor Molecular constructor Broadcast architecture Macroscopic computer http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRep.html

  17. Advantages of broadcast architecture Broadcast replication • Smaller and simpler: no instruction storage, simplified instruction decode • Easily redirected to manufacture valuable products • Inherently safe

  18. Exponential assembly

  19. Replication The goal: low manufacturing costs • Potatoes, lumber, wheat and other agricultural products have costs of roughly a dollar per pound. • Molecular manufacturing will eventually make almost any product for a dollar per pound or less, independent of complexity. (Design costs, licensing costs, etc. not included)

  20. An overview of replicating systemsfor manufacturing Replication • Advanced Automation for Space Missions, edited by Robert Freitas and William Gilbreath NASA Conference Publication 2255, 1982 • A web page with an overview of replication: http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRep.html

  21. Replication Popular misconceptions:replicating systems must • be like living systems • be adaptable (survive in natural environment) • be very complex • have on-board instructions • be self sufficient (uses only very simple parts)

  22. Feynman, 1959 “The problems of chemistry and biology can be greatly helped if our ability to see what we are doing, and to do things on an atomic level, is ultimately developed -- a development which I think cannot be avoided.”

  23. Impact The impact of a new manufacturing technology depends on what you make

  24. Impact Powerful Computers • We’ll have more computing power in the volume of a sugar cube than the sum total of all the computer power that exists in the world today • More than 1021 bits in the same volume • Almost a billion Pentiums in parallel

  25. Impact Lighter, stronger, smarter, less expensive • New, inexpensive materials with a strength-to-weight ratio over 50 times that of steel • Critical for aerospace: airplanes, rockets, satellites… • Useful in cars, trucks, ships, ...

  26. Impact Nanomedicine • Disease and ill health are caused largely by damage at the molecular and cellular level • Today’s surgical tools are huge and imprecise in comparison

  27. Impact Nanomedicine • In the future, we will have fleets of surgical tools that are molecular both in size and precision. • We will also have computers much smaller than a single cell to guide those tools.

  28. Impact Size of a robotic arm ~100 nanometers 8-bit computer Mitochondrion ~1-2 by 0.1-0.5 microns

  29. Impact Mitochondrion Size of a robotic arm ~100 nanometers “Typical” cell: ~20 microns

  30. Respirocytes http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html

  31. Human impacton the environment The environment • Population • Living standards • Technology

  32. The environment Reducing human impacton the environment • Greenhouse agriculture/hydroponics • Solar power • Pollution free manufacturing

  33. How long? • The scientifically correct answer is I don’t know • Trends in computer hardware suggest early in this century — perhaps in the 2010 to 2020 time frame • Of course, how long it takes depends on what we do

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