1 / 15

RESEARCH SEMINAR

RESEARCH SEMINAR www.nopoor.eu “THE USE OF COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS ( CGE ) FOR POVERTY AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS” Madrid, October 21 st – 23 rd 2013 Directed by: Prof. de Arce & Prof. Mahía Applied Economics Department, UAM.

danyl
Download Presentation

RESEARCH SEMINAR

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. RESEARCH SEMINAR www.nopoor.eu“THE USE OF COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS (CGE) FOR POVERTY AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS”Madrid, October 21st – 23rd 2013Directed by:Prof. de Arce & Prof. MahíaApplied Economics Department, UAM

  2. Web Page: http://www.uam.es/rafael.dearce/cge_seminar_october.htm WIFIconnection: User: nopoor2013 Password: 20!3%NpRu4M Software: GAMS http://www.gams.com Reception of Participants: Facultad CC.EE.EE. UAM Módulo 14. Centro Predicción Económica Salón de Grados “Emilio Fontela” Classroom: Facultad CC.EE.EE. Mornings: Módulo 14. Class: 105 (downstairs) Afternoons: Mód. 14. Class: 201 (middle floor)

  3. COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS MATHS NATIONALACCOUNTS

  4. COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS

  5. STATIC vs DYNAMIC – PARTIAL vs GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM Economists of the Time: Partial Equilibrium and Static concept IO models (Leontief): General Equilibrium and Static concept Macroeconometric models (Tinbergen, Klein): GE and Dynamic

  6. SOME HITS OF A NON EXHAUSTIVE HISTORY OF CGE MODELS Quesnay, 1758 LaussaneAcademy, (Switzerland): LéonWalras and Vilfredo Pareto Leontief’s “Inter-relation of prices, output, savings and investment” (1937) TheArrow- Debreu general equilibriumtheory (1954) The Cambridge Growth Project and Richard Stone (1960’S) NorwayCGEModel, Johansen, 1960 AGEModel and Scarflinnearsolutions Taylor & Black, 1974. Introducingexternaldisequilibrium Adelson and Robinson, 1976. “Chain of models as a dynamicapproach” MONASH / ORANI Modelsfor Australia and GEMPACK software GTAP– IFPRI – World Bank

  7. USINGCGEMODELS(fromCockburn et Al. (2008)) the effects on: • Macro variables, including measures of nation-wide or even global economic welfare; • industry variables; • regional variables; • labour market variables; • distributional variables; and • environmental variables of changes in: • taxes, public consumption and social security payments; • tariffs and other interferences in international trade; • environmental policies; technology; • international commodity prices and interest rates; • wage setting arrangements and union behavior; and • known levels and exploitability of mineral deposits (the Dutch disease).

  8. THE SIMPLEST MODEL Source: Hosoe, 2004

  9. SOCIAL ACCOUNT MATRIX (SAM) SCHEMA Source: Mitra-Khan, 2008 SAM is read from column to row, so each entry in the matrix comes from its column heading, going to the row heading: For example, Consumption (C) comes from households and is paid to firms..

  10. EXTENDED CGEMODEL(Example in Hosoe, 2004)

  11. MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS FOR COMBINING ELEMENTS (… forexample, productionfactors) … CES as a GeneralizedExprexion ….

  12. MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS FOR COMBINING ELEMENTS (… forexample, productionfactors) Linnear Cobb-Douglas The elasticity of Substitution (sigma) represents the shape of the isoquants curves Leontief

  13. COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS Data Schema FunctionalSchema Simulation Game

  14. REFERENCES Cockburn, J., Decaluwé, B. & Robichaud, V. (2008): “Trade Liberalization and Poverty: A CGE Analysis of the 1990s Experience in Africa and Asia”. Poverty and Economic Policy (PEP) Research Network, 2008. Hosoe, N. (2004): “Computable General Equilibrium Modeling with GAMS”. National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Mimeo. Mitra-Khan, B. (2008): Debunking the Myths of Computable General Equilibrium Models, SCEPAWorkingPaper 2008-1.

More Related