Rapid Crop Assessment (RCA) Mission Results 10-21 August 2009 John Chuol & Elijah Mukhala MAF GOSS

1. Rapid Crop Assessment (RCA) Mission Results 10-21 August 2009 John Chuol & Elijah Mukhala MAF GOSS FAO SIFSIA project

2. Definition of Food Security “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. (World Food Summit, 1996) • Food availability: The availability of food of appropriate quality, supplied through domestic production or imports (including food aid). • Food access: Access by individuals to adequate resources (entitlements) for acquiring appropriate foods for a nutritious diet. • Utilization: Utilization of food through adequate diet, clean water, sanitation and health care to reach a state of nutritional well-being. • Stability: To be food secure, a population, household or individual must have access to adequate food at all times.

3. Why undertake a Rapid Crop Assessment (RCA)?

4. Rationale: Rapid Crop Assessment Rain-fed Agriculture: 90% percentage of agricultural production in southern Sudan is rain-fed, hence deviation from normal rainfall pattern has serious implication on cereal production. Agricultural Production: About 80% of cereal production in southern Sudan is from the tradition sector • GOSS-MAF Decision: based on the information received on the poor onset of the rainfall in 2009 and its potential impact on agricultural production, GOSS decided to field a crop assessment to verify the status of the crops • Technical Assistance: GOSS requested FAO and WFP to provide technical assistance in the Rapid Crop Assessment (RCA). GOSS was leading the assessments. • Duration of RCA: The RCA was conducted from 10-21st August, 2009

5. A rapid assessment format was followed, covering all States. Specific locations include: N. Bahr el Ghazal State: Aweil South & West Counties; W. Bahr el Ghazal State: Wau and Jur River Counties; Unity State: Bentiu, Leer, Koch, Guit, Mayendit, Ruweng; Central Equatoria State: Juba, Kejo Keji; East Equatoria State Torit, Ikotos, Magwi, Kapoeta; Upper Nile State: Renk, Malakal, Panyikang. Jonglei State: Bor, Warrap State: Gogrial east, Gogrial West; Lakes State: Rumbek East, Rumbek Central, Cuibet West Equatoria State: Yambio, Ibba, Nzara. Methodology

6. Methodology The data collection had two parts: Primary data collection: to provide information of the situation on the ground. However, this may not provide a full overview because of the limited sample and logistical challenges Use of Secondary data: Satellite images of rainfall, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Cover data was applied The 5 Assessment Teams analysed the data collected and produced reports. The reports were then merged to produce the final qualitative judgements based on Convergence of Evidence

7. Land Cover Polygons of Agricultural and Range Land Monitoring Areas (FAO Africover Map)

8. Understanding a normal agricultural season......

9. Cropping Season Southern Sudan grows a number of cereals and sorghum is the most widely cultivated crop. Other crops include maize, sesame, millet etc Three main varieties are planted at different times, in order to spread risks: Short varieties: planted in May and harvest August Medium varieties: planted in June and harvested in October/November Long varieties: plant in May and harvested in November/December

10. Normal Agricultural Season Timeline 2009 Agricultural Season

11. Analysis of rainfall performance using NDVI...

12. Average Vegetation Index 2009 Vegetation Index 1-10 June 2009

13. Average Vegetation Index 2009 Vegetation Index 1-10 July 2009

14. Average Vegetation Index 2009 Vegetation Index 1-10 August 2009

15. Fire Incident Monitoring 1 Sep 2009

16. Peak of rainy Season Normal onset of rainfall Onset of rainfall in 2009 Delay in Rainfall Magnitude of delay in Rainfall using Normalized Difference vegetation Index (NDVI)

17. What is the crop status on the ground?...

18. In all the States visited, the crops are at all phenological stages: Emergency, Vegetative, Flowering and Maturity Less than 2% of maize has matured and normally provides the much needed food during the hunger period. No sorghum has matured to provide a break in the hunger period. Sesame is being harvested and dried to provide food

19. While there are crops doing well, most of the crops were stressed until the August rainfall There was a lot of insect pests observed on the crops affecting the grain development. Weeds were also observed and affected some fields severely (Striga spp)

20. In Warrap and Northern Bahr Ghazal, Jonglei there is also a risk of the crops being flooded before they mature Floods coming before the crop matures will completely destroy the crop as aeration is hampered

21. How is livestock performing?...

22. Livestock in southern Sudan contributes significantly to food security The animals are usually sold to obtain income to purchase grain In most of the States, the physical state of the animals is generally good There is plenty of water and pastures for livestock excepts parts of Eastern Equatoria A number of animal diseases were reported and there is a lack of vaccines in most states (PPR, FMD, Ticks etc) Livestock prices were low than previous years’ hunger season

23. What is the impact on agricultural production?...

24. The Poor onset of rainfall and dry spell have: affected the ploughing and planting of fields in most parts of southern Sudan Led to widespread re-planting of crops Led to reduced feddans planted, due to limited seed availability exacerbated by replanting incases where the first planting failed due to dry spells Led to non-availability of early crop harvest to alleviate the hunger period (maize, sorghum, groundnuts etc) Led to increase in cereal market prices in some cases prices have doubled The food security situation is worse in six States: Eastern Equatoria, Jonglei, Upper Nile, Unity, Warrap and Northern Bahr el Ghazal

25. Other factors affecting agricultural production: Ethnic conflicts especially in Warrap, Upper Nile, Jonglei, Lakes and Central Equatoria affected the agricultural production LRA attacks and other attacks in Western Equatoria Lack of tools and seeds for cultivation

26. Rainfall Forecast for Sept-Dec 2009

27. What is the expected agricultural production?...

28. Agricultural production Taking into account the various growing stages at which the crops are, it makes it challenging to estimate accurately the expected yields However, taking into account the observed crop conditions, weed infestation, The reduction in the area planted, insect pests infestation, the rainfall performance in the next 2-3 months

29. Agricultural production The agricultural production for 2009 will be reduced creating challenges on availability of cereals in southern Sudan The reduction is discussed in terms of Yield per feddan As a baseline, : A Good Year: 1 feddan will produce = 5-8 bags (90kg bags) Sorghum Normal Year: 1 feddan will produce = 3-5 Bags Bad Year : 1 feddan will produce = 0-2 bags Based on areas visited, feddans planted have reduced by about 20-30% In 2009, overall production reduction may be 30-40% The actual quantitative production figures will be produced during the extensive CFSAM in November 2009 taking into consideration the number of feddans cultivated in 2009. In terms of the magnitude of reduction, 3 scenarios are presented

30. Crop Production Scenarios Based on the reports compiled by the 5 teams on convergence of evidence, the following scenarios are likely:

31. Conclusions Short Terms measures Need to start mobilizing food aid with donors Need to request donors for a CFSAM to derive statistics on agricultural production in November 2009 Due to below normal expected harvests, sourcing of seeds and tools should be a priority. There is need to source vaccines to deal with the current livestock diseases Provision of fishing equipment to fishing communities for their livelihoods

32. Conclusions Long Term Measures There is an indication that climate change is a reality. Hence there is need to adjust the cropping patterns and practices by using the short and medium maturing varieties, water harvesting technologies etc. Need to encourage farmers to diversify their crops (eg cowpeas, pumpkins, sweet potatoes & other root crops) Strengthening of the extension service to provide training to farmers on new sustainable technologies (e.g. introduce supplementary irrigation) There is need to have seed banks for quick response interventions such as replanting Strengthening implementation of mechanized production

33. Thank You for your attention