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Recession and Recovery: A Look Into Our Economic Future First Coast Real Estate Economic Outlook Conference and Expo Jacksonville, FL March 23 rd , 2010. Credit Freeze. Financial Market Sclerosis that developed into Credit Infarction Plunged the Economy Deep into Recession
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Recession and Recovery: A Look Into Our Economic Future First Coast Real Estate Economic Outlook Conference and Expo Jacksonville, FL March 23rd, 2010
Credit Freeze • Financial Market Sclerosis that developed into Credit Infarction • Plunged the Economy Deep into Recession • Quadruple Policy Bypass Averted a Worse Fate • Interest Rate Cuts/ Quantitative Stimulus • Stimulus Package I • T.A.R.P. • Stimulus Package II • Rehabilitation / Ugly scar
U.S. Forecast U.S. has endured a Severe Recession The “Great Recession” is now over So why doesn’t it feel like it? The credit freeze necessitated the quadruple policy bypass Recovery and rehabilitation underway Ugly “scar” on prominent display and slow to fade Labor market will take a long time to recover
U.S. Forecast What will be the shape of the recession and recovery? Alphabet soup: U-shaped, V-shaped, L-shaped or maybe W-shaped Sports equipment: Hockey stick
U.S. Economic Outlook 4th Quarter 2009 Forecast
U.S. Economic Outlook IEC 1st Quarter 2010 Forecast
Capital Continues to Flow into the U.S. Foreign countries have purchased U.S. government bonds at record levels. Will this continue as the U.S. runs deficits measured in the trillions of dollars? A return to crowding out?
Foreign Ownership of US Treasury Bonds Billions of Dollars
U.S. Forecast Greatest risks to U.S. Economy may come from policy Sky Mall™ Policy
U.S. Forecast Sky Mall™ Policies: T.A.R.P. Foreclosure Prevention Act 2008 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Stimulus act) Health Care Reform?
Florida Forecast • Residential real estate showing signs of improvement. Sales up, prices still falling. • Commercial real estate: wave of foreclosures poised to impact the sector • Economic recovery in Q1 2010. • Labor market to remain in a funk • Short-run demographics hinder recovery • Long run population growth rates lower
Thank you Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D. • Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness • Sean@SeanSnaith.com • WWW.IEC.UCF.EDU • www.facebook.com/seansnaith • Twitter: @seansnaith