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Purpose

Purpose. Broad overview of water resource situation ADWR planning benchmark for management goals Public/media information requests Linked to development of hydrologic models. Characteristics. Budgets are complex Based on best available data Part of long-term view

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Purpose

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Purpose • Broad overview of water resource situation • ADWR planning benchmark for management goals • Public/media information requests • Linked to development of hydrologic models

  2. Characteristics • Budgets are complex • Based on best available data • Part of long-term view • Combination of hydrology, policy & art

  3. Limitations • AMA-wide calculations • Multiple assumptions • Some factors are directly measured, some are estimated, and some are long-term averages

  4. Supplies: Natural recharge mountain front, streambed Incidental recharge Groundwater inflow CAP & surface water use Effluent use “Cuts to the aquifer” Demands: Agriculture Municipal Industrial Riparian transpiration Groundwater outflow Other: Direct recharge In-lieu recharge Allowable Pumping Budget Components

  5. Projection Components Typical factors used in projections • Municipal • population • gpcd • Industrial • population • specific users (power plants, dairies, mines, etc.) • Agricultural • acreage • application rate • efficiency • utilization rate “Benchmarked” to Dept. of Economic Security totals Based on water provider trends & targets Trends and consultation with sector representatives and others Trends and consultation with other agencies, irrigation districts and growers

  6. Process Projections developed as part of a process (TMP, SYTF, etc.) • Outside input (TACs, public comment, etc.) • Consensus based • Some differences among AMAs as to how conservative individual assumptions are • Professional judgement

  7. Testing • Scenarios • Impact of varying a range of factors at once • Sensitivity analysis • Impact of varying a single factor, while holding others constant • Interactive planning budgets • Instantaneous scenarios • Ability to easily update projections and assumptions

  8. Conclusions • ADWR planning budgets are most useful for examining trends and progress towards meeting management goals at a macro (AMA-wide) level • Sub-basin conditions are not reflected in water budgets • Budgets include a myriad of assumptions, some of which may be proved wrong in the long term • Budgets are a powerful tool for testing impacts of programs over time

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