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Climate Prediction: Products, Research, Outreach

Climate Prediction: Products, Research, Outreach. Briefing for NOAA’s Science Advisory Board March 19, 2002 National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center Jim Laver, Director 301-763-8000 x7500, jim.laver@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/. Climate Prediction Center Overview.

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Climate Prediction: Products, Research, Outreach

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  1. Climate Prediction:Products, Research, Outreach Briefing for NOAA’s Science Advisory Board March 19, 2002 National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center Jim Laver, Director 301-763-8000 x7500, jim.laver@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

  2. Climate Prediction CenterOverview • Product Suite • Outlooks: Week 2 through Seasons • Monitoring: Global, Regional • Assessments: Threats, Diagnostics Bulletin, Annual, … • Product Development and Improvement -- Research Areas Needed • Outreach -- Products released via AWIPS, Weather Wire, Web, Media, Global Channels, Special Briefings to Government Agencies

  3. Climate Monitoring • Global Climate Conditions • ElNiño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle • Temperature and Precipitation • Atmospheric winds and pressure • Oceanic Temperatures and Currents • Stratospheric Temperatures and Ozone • Regional Climate Conditions • U.S. Precipitation (Drought, Soil Moisture) • U.S. Temperature

  4. Climate Assessments • Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly) • ENSO Diagnostic Discussion • United States Assessments • Weather/Climate Hazards • Drought • Degree Days • Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Activity • Stratosphere • Annual global climate

  5. Product Research, Development,and Improvement Partners • Within NOAA - National Climatic Data Center - Climate Diagnostics Center - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - National Ocean Service - Tropical Prediction Center - Environmental Modeling Center - NWS Regional Headquarters - NWS Forecast Offices (WFO) • Outside NOAA - International Research Institute for - Applied Research Centers Climate Prediction - US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) - Scripps Institution of Oceanography - Center of Ocean Land and Atmosphere - Federal Emergency Management - University of Maryland - National Drought Mitigation Center - NASA - US Air Force - US Aid for International Development

  6. Connections to Research • Weather and Climate links • North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)

  7. Weather and Climate Links • El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) • Arctic Oscillation (AO) • Trends • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

  8. ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO/NAO) • Major source of winter intraseasonal variability over U. S., Atlantic and Europe • Modulates the circulation pattern over the middle and high latitudes • Regulates number and intensity of significant weather events affecting the U.S.

  9. NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME) HYPOTHESIS The NAMS provides a physical basis for determining the degree of predictability of warm season precipitation over the region. Topographic and Sea-Land Influence • OBJECTIVES: • Better understanding and • simulation of: • monsoon evolution and • variability. • response of warm season • circulation and precipitation • to slowly varying boundary • conditions (e.g. SST, soil • moisture). • diurnal heating cycle and • its relation to seasonally • varying mean climate. • Intraseasonal variability of • the monsoon. Intraseasonal Variability Boundary Forcing? YEAR (2000+) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Planning --------------| Preparations --------------| Data Collection - - - - - - ------------| Principal Research ---------------------------| Data Management -------------------------------------|

  10. Outreach • National --AWIPS, NOAA Weather Wire, Web, Media, Special Briefing to Agencies • State & Local -- 122 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) brief media , emergency managers and elected officials • American Red Cross, FEMA, DoS/USAID, USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, African Desk, other International Centers

  11. Summary • CPC produces outlooks on time scales from week 2 through seasons • Monitoring and assessment efforts support forecast operations • Product R & D and improvement needed with research partners on all time scales • Outreach -- with partners through NOAA and International Systems, Web, Media, and Special Briefings to Agencies

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