Road Map

1. Sustainable Agricultural Economic benefits of reservoir scale expansion in Balkh Basin, AfghanistanAbdelaziz A. Gohar & Frank A. Ward New Mexico State University, USASouth Valley University, Qena, Egypt July 25, 2012With support from Dr. Saud Amer, US Geological Survey

2. Road Map • Background • Balkh irrigation system • Balkh agricultural system • Historical water and land use • Research problem • Objectives • Methods (Approach) • Data • Analysis • Results • Conclusions • Path forward

3. 1. Background : Irrigation System • Balkh River: important source of irrigation water in northern Afghanistan. • Policy and distribution control by local authority (Mirab) • Little cooperation among neighboring mirabs • Watershed regions • Upper • Middle • Lower • 80 % of population is rural • Irrigated Crops: wheat , tomato , potato ,melon, rice , cotton , alfalfa, pulses

4. Schematic of Balkh River Canal System, Afghanistan Middle R. G13 Faizabad Charbulak Abdulah G12 Dawlatabad Aqcha G11 Khanaqah Upper R G10 Mingajik Mushtag G9 Murdian G8 Balkh Lower Region Siagard G7 Chemtal G6 G5 Nahr_Shahi Reservoir G4 Use node G3 gauge G2 Aman_Sahib Upper Basin G1 Middle Basin Lower basin

5. Background: Water use

6. Background: Land use

7. Background: Water use

8. Research Problems • No water storage capacity • agricultural system suffers in droughts • Lower region users get no water • no benefit can be stored in wet period • Inadequate water institutions • Low water distribution efficiency • High water losses

9. Objectives • Assemble historical data on water supply, water use, crop yields, land in production, crop mix, crop costs and crop prices that characterize the economics of irrigated agriculture in the Balkh River Basin, Afghanistan. • Integrate data into a framework that explains profitability, crop production, and crop land and water use so that Afghan ministry personnel, mirabs and farmers can understand what influences profitability and food-security effects of irrigated agriculture. • Examine how profitability and food security at both the farm and basin levels are affected by additional reservoir storage capacity development in the Basin.

10. Approach

11. Overview • Characterize the basin’s river-canal network. • Use the canal network to predict the spatial distribution of water use and crop production patterns under stochastic future water supplies • Examine several reservoir capacities for adapting to future water supply variability • Base conditions: No reservoir capacity • Small reservoir : 50 % of average annual inflow • Medium reservoir: 100% of average annual inflow • Large reservoir: 200 % of average annual inflow

12. Data Sources • Torrel and Ward (2010). • Carver and Lee, 2009. consulting report • Farm budget data: USAID report, 2009 • Water supply data: USAID, 2003 • Food subsistence: FAOSTAT balance sheet

13. Methods: Details • Integrated Basin Framework Approach We developed an integrated basin scale framework to identify the potential agricultural economic benefits from constructing different reservoir capacities in Balkh River. This framework is :- • Dynamic optimization of economic benefits • Includes hydrology • Includes Land use • Economic: farm budget • Stochastic water inflow • 20 years policy analysis

14. Hydrologic Balance Xvt = Total river flows at any given v-th gauge in t-th period Xht = Flows at upstream headwater gauge Xvt = flows at upstream river gauge Xdt = diversions at upstream agricultural node Xrt = Return flow from upstream agricultural node Xmt = Unmeasured flows upstream gauge XLt = Reservoir releases at L-th upstream gauge B’s fixed coefficients

15. Objective Function NPV = Basin’s discounted agricultural economic benefits Xbut = Total agricultural economic benefits at u-th node in t-th period r = Discount rate

17. Policy Evaluation : Storage capacities • Base situation • No water storage capacities • No increase in available land • Produce historical land in production for first year • Small reservoir • Reservoir holds 50 % of average annual inflow • No increase in irrigated land • Produce no more 2 times historical land for each crops and node

18. Policy Evaluation : Storage capacities • Medium reservoir • Reservoir holds 100% of average annual inflow • No increase in available land • No more 2 time of historical irrigated land • large Reservoir • Reservoir can hold 200% of annual inflow • No increase in irrigated land • No more than 2 time of historical irrigated land

19. Results

20. Results : Basin Farm Income

21. Results: Basin Farm Income

22. Results: Basin Farm Income

23. Results: Basin Farm Income

24. Results: Irrigated Land

25. Results: Irrigated Land

26. Results: Irrigated Land

27. Results : Storage volume

28. Conclusions • Water is an important resource for farm income in Balkh River Basin, Afghanistan • Storage capacity could raise farm income in Basin by greater capacity to trap, hold, and release flood flows in drought periods. • Gross farm benefits increase by reservoir size. • Benefits increase at decreasing rate by reservoir size • Largest benefits for Middle region users • Benefits increase by the reservoir size for Middle and Upper • Little increase for Lower region beyond medium reservoir size. This could change with alternative water right systems. • Cultivators of rice will negatively effected by small and medium capacity • Cotton cultivators will negatively effected by small capacity

29. Path forward • Cost of reservoir development to compare to benefits • Hydrology benefits • Evaporation estimation • Environmental impact • Institution policies • Alternative water rights systems • Water trading • Irrigation technology • Improved crop varieties • Others

30. Thanks Comments Welcome