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Dr. Paul Kershaw University of British Columbia Human Early Learning Partnership March 4 , 2011 Kelowna, BC

A Canada that Works for All Generations. Dr. Paul Kershaw University of British Columbia Human Early Learning Partnership March 4 , 2011 Kelowna, BC. Cracks?. Boomers & Seniors. Children. 25-45 year olds. More u npaid domestic hours. More labour market hours.

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Dr. Paul Kershaw University of British Columbia Human Early Learning Partnership March 4 , 2011 Kelowna, BC

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  1. A Canada that Works for All Generations Dr. Paul Kershaw University of British Columbia Human Early Learning Partnership March 4, 2011 Kelowna, BC

  2. Cracks?

  3. Boomers & Seniors Children 25-45 year olds More unpaid domestic hours More labour market hours Photo credit: www.nvdaily.com/news/2010/07/mayor-removal-of-dam-high-priority.php

  4. Then Now

  5. $ Average House price Average Household Income as young adults $474,274 $72,620 56% of women 25-45 years in labour force $65,940 80% of women 25-45 years in labour force $120,731 WhenBoomers wereyoung adults (1976-1980) WhenBoomers wereyoung adults (1976) Today’s young adults (2004-2008) Today’s young adults (2009) 9% decline 393% increase

  6. Population pressures POP. SIZE (2009) COHORT

  7. …plus biological realities CHILDHOOD Biological sensitivity/ opportunity AGEING Biological vulnerability/ frailty 25 - 45 YEAR OLDS YOUTH CHILDREN BOOMERS JUNIOR SENIORS SENIOR SENIORS

  8. Sensitive Periods in Early Brain Development Pre-school years School years High Numbers Peer social skills Language Symbol Sensitivity Habitual ways of responding Emotional control Vision Hearing Low 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 Years Graph developed by Council for Early Child Development (ref: Nash, 1997; Early Years Study, 1999; Shonkoff, 2000.)

  9. of BC kindergarten children are vulnerable. 29% Vulnerability above 10% is not biologically necessary.

  10. Biologically, no neighbourhood need have vulnerability above 10%. Vulnerable onOne or More Scales >10% <10% Source: EDI Wave 2 (2004/05 – 2006/07)

  11. BC: Unique Population Laboratory: Early Vulnerability  Quality of Labour Supply Kindergarten Population Grade 4 Population Grade 7 Population Grade 12 Population Criminal activity

  12. Reduce Early Vulnerability to 10%... to cut incarceration by a third

  13. Reduce early vulnerability to 10%... to increase university eligibility by a third.

  14. The next generation’s Human Capital Vulnerability If Then University eligible grades At K At G.12 # of children 29% 41.5% Low High Score on scale of EDI and % achieving university eligible grades

  15. The next generation’s Human Capital Vulnerability If Then University eligible grades At K At G.12 # of children 10% 55.6% Low High Score on scale of EDI and % achieving university eligible grades

  16. Countries with 55% of students getting university-eligible grades • vs. • Countries with 42% of students getting university eligible grades… • ENJOYED .63% OF GDP GROWTH MORE PER YEAR, FOR 40 YEARS 1960 – 2000: Research shows…

  17. Decreased Vulnerability = Increased Growth Reduced early vulnerabilityincreases GDP by Reduced vulnerability (10%) 20% That’s throwing away $401.5 billion now + interest over 60 years! Status Quo (29% vulnerable) Baseline growth First cohort graduates Baseline growth plus 0.63% GDP per year First cohort of 5 year olds benefit from 15 by 15 policy We are here

  18. of BC kindergarten children are vulnerable. 29% Most vulnerable children are not poor!

  19. Why?

  20. Demographic heroes? CHILDHOOD Biological sensitivity/ opportunity AGEING Biological vulnerability/ frailty 25 - 45 YEAR OLDS YOUTH CHILDREN BOOMERS JUNIOR SENIORS SENIOR SENIORS

  21. Resisting the Intergenerational squeeze CHILDHOOD Biological sensitivity/ opportunity AGEING Biological vulnerability/ frailty 25 - 45 YEAR OLDS YOUTH CHILDREN BOOMERS $ JUNIOR SENIORS SENIOR SENIORS $

  22. What since? Hospital Ins 1957 & Medical Care 1966 Old Age Security 1951 & C/QPP 1966 Workers Comp & UI World Wars & other conflicts Markets & Banks Roads &Railways Universities Schools Canada has a proud history of Building and Adapting

  23. Public expenditure on ECEC services (0-6 years)in selected OECD countries Denmark Sweden Norway Finland France Hungary • British Columbia • Currently 0.22% of GDP • 0.28% with full school-day K Austria • Canada(outside Quebec) • Few spaces • Insufficient quality • High cost • Inadequate Inclusion United Kingdom United States Netherlands Germany Italy Australia OECDavg.0.7% UNICEF & EUbenchmark1.0% 0.25% Canada Canada BC 0.22% 0.28% 0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% % of GDP Source: Adapted from Starting Strong ll: Early Childhood Education and Care, September 2006, p.11

  24. (2008) Canadian Currency (controlling for purchasing power parities)

  25. Canadian Society is FAILING parents in fundamental ways! Because there is no system of family policy… Time Poverty Service Poverty Income Poverty Reflects appreciation of costs imposed by residential school system; reserves, etc.

  26. Solution?

  27. What next? Hospital Ins 1957 & Medical Care 1966 Old Age Security 1951 & C/QPP 1966 Workers Comp & UI World Wars & other conflicts Markets & Banks Roads &Railways Universities Schools Renew our efforts to build and adapt so that Canada Works for All Generations.

  28. Better parental leave more time: +6 months, for dads more $: $932/week, up from $442 minimum: $440/week Enough Time with kids, family and friends

  29. 1600 hour annual full-time norm? Canadian 300 more hours/year than German, Dutch and Norwegian citizen 56% of men and 31% of women more than 40 hours 22% of men and 41% of women less than 30 hours Work beyond age 65… Enough Time with kids, family and friends

  30. Child Care & Early Learning Services $10/day, from leave through K $7/day, p-t option for @-home parents Provided by caregivers with ECE training Play-based approach to ECD Paid pay equity-level wages Include Parenting Supports & Healthy Child Check-ins Enough Time to make ends meet, to be creative

  31. Boomers & Seniors Children $ 25-45 year olds $351 million @ minimum wage Leave: 15,687 years 1600 norm: 8,428 years Net benefit: $126 million Under $60K gains Over $60k trading some cash for time Photo credit: www.nvdaily.com/news/2010/07/mayor-removal-of-dam-high-priority.php

  32. The price of smart family policy...

  33. A Canada that works for all generations: the cost in BC Parental leave Time & Income Services $1.1 billion Healthy Child Check-Ins & Parenting Support $2.8 Billion /Year $91 million End poverty & Living wage 1600 hour annual employ. norm Child Care and Early learning $474 million $59 million $1.1 billion Less $150 million, because of the progress made, despite recession

  34. $2.8 Billion/Year in BC?!? Eventual returns outweigh costs by 6/1 Less than half what we spend cumulatively on Old Age Security and RRSPs. About 12-20% of total fed/prov health care spending.  More sophisticated consumers of policy announcements.

  35. $2.8 Billion Increase in Spending? Provincial Health Care Spending($ Billions) 1998 - 2008 $3B /5 years $3B /5 years

  36. Absenteeism: $293 million • Productivity: $393 million • Retention: $575-800 million • Insurance premiums $ 15 million • Parental leave top up $ 20 million • Sub-total$1+ billion • Reduce wage pressures… Failure to adapt costs BC employers…

  37. Child welfare: $157 million • W/L stress  • GPs, emerg, hospitalization: $299 million • Prescription drugs $ 26 million • Sub-total$482 million • Reduction in unemployment: 9,950 FTEs • Early vuln  K-12 costs • Poverty  health care costs Failure to adapt costs Government

  38. Smart Family Policy Hospital Ins 1957 & Medical Care 1966 Old Age Security 1951 & C/QPP 1966 Workers Comp & UI World Wars & other conflicts Markets & Banks Roads &Railways Universities Schools Adapting the dam is a part of our history, good management, smart economics & a just cause.

  39. Trusted Professions in Canada (2007) Fire Fighters 97% Nurses 94% Farmers 92% Teachers 89% Doctors 87% Politicians 15%

  40. Thank you. • Paul Kershaw, Ph.D. • The University of British Columbia • College for Interdisciplinary Studies • Human Early Learning Partnership (HELP) • http://www.earlylearning.ubc.ca/PaulKershaw.htm • e-mail: paul.kershaw@ubc.ca

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