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The Great Recession and its Lasting Impacts

The Great Recession and its Lasting Impacts. Mark A. Berreth, Regional Economist, LMEA Sept. 28, 2011. Washington nonagricultural employment. U.S. nonagricultural employment (in thousands). Seasonally adjusted. 3,000,000. 138,000. 2,925,000. 136,000. 2,850,000. 134,000. 2,775,000.

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The Great Recession and its Lasting Impacts

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  1. The Great Recession and its Lasting Impacts Mark A. Berreth, Regional Economist, LMEA Sept. 28, 2011

  2. Washington nonagricultural employment U.S. nonagricultural employment (in thousands) Seasonally adjusted 3,000,000 138,000 2,925,000 136,000 2,850,000 134,000 2,775,000 132,000 2,700,000 130,000 2,625,000 128,000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Job growth Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  3. Employment growth for WA Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  4. Employment growth by industry in WA Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  5. Industry employment in WA Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  6. Total covered agriculture employment 12-month moving average, Washington state 104,000 104,000 100,000 100,000 96,000 96,000 92,000 92,000 88,000 88,000 84,000 84,000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Agricultural employment in WA Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA

  7. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Seasonally adjusted, annual rate, $ inbillions 16,000 16,000 14,000 14,000 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Slow GDP growth Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis

  8. Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Seasonally adjusted, annual rate, billions$ 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 0 0 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Private investment spending lags consumer spending Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis

  9. U.S. Consumer Confidence Aug. 2011 = 44.5, seasonally adjusted, 1985=100 150 150 125 125 100 100 75 75 50 50 25 25 85 90 95 00 05 10 Consumer confidence Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, The Conference Board

  10. Unemployment rate Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  11. Top 10 states by lowest July 2011 unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau

  12. Bottom 10 states by July 2011 unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau

  13. Third decile of states by unemployment rate Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  14. College grads Less than bachelor's degree HS diploma, no college Less than HS diploma 16 16 12 12 8 8 4 4 0 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Unemployment rates by education level, in U.S. For ages 25 and up Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  15. Washington population educational attainment, 2009 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau

  16. 28% 28% Youths: 16-19 years 24% 24% 20% 20% 16% 16% All working-age men 12% 12% 8% 8% All working-age women 4% 4% 2008 09 10 11 Youth unemployment rates in U.S. Men & women of all ages compared to youths aged 16-19 years Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  17. 17.5% 15% 12.5% 10% 7.5% • 5% • 2.5% 2007 08 09 10 11 Alternative measures of labor underutilization Unemployed+marginallyattached+part-time for economic reasons • Unemployed + marginally attached • Unemployed + discouraged workers • Unemployment rate: Age 16+ (Seasonally adjusted) Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  18. Jobs in goods-producing sectors in WA Service-providing industry • Goods-producing industry 2,475,000 520,000 500,000 2,400,000 480,000 2,325,000 460,000 440,000 2,250,000 420,000 2,175,000 400,000 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  19. Jobs in goods-producing sectors in WA Service-providing industry • Goods-producing industry 105% As a percent of December 2007 employment 105% Dec. 2007 = 100% 100% 100% 95% 95% 90% 90% 85% 85% 80% 80% 75% 75% 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA

  20. Washington: • Construction • Manufacturing • U.S.: • Construction • Manufacturing 140% 140% 120% 120% 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Employment over time As a percent of December 2007 employment Dec. 2007 = 100% Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  21. Zillow Housing Index • WashingtonArizona • NevadaCalifornia 140% 140% 120% 120% 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 No recovery in home prices Dec. 2007 = 100% Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Zillow

  22. New hires for youths drop faster Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau

  23. Hiring takes place throughout the economy Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau

  24. Job creation and destruction in WA Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  25. Labor force participation rate remains near 25 year low U.S. labor force participation rate Washington state labor force participation rate Seasonally adjusted, % 72.5 72.5 70.0 70.0 67.5 67.5 65.0 65.0 62.5 62.5 60.0 60.0 57.5 57.5 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  26. U.S. labor force participation rate: 55 years & over U.S. labor force participation rate: 25-54 years U.S. labor force participation rate: 16 - 24 years 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Older workers working longer, pushing up their labor force participation rate Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  27. U.S. employment-population ratio WA employment-population ratio Seasonally adjusted, % 66 66 64 64 62 62 60 60 58 58 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Washington’s employment to population ratio mirrors the nation Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  28. Employment to population ratios have yet to recover Employment-population ratio: men Employment-population ratio: women Seasonally adjusted, % 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  29. Top ten occupational groups by projected annual openings, 2014-2010 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA,

  30. Other occupational group by projected annual openings, 2014-2019 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA,

  31. Questions?

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