Missouri bladderpod Lesquerella filiformis Rollins

1. Missouri bladderpodLesquerella filiformis Rollins photo: NPS archive

3. Missouri bladderpod • listed Federally Endangered in 1987 • narrow endemic - 62 populations in 5 counties of sw Missouri and nw Arkansas • threatened by habitat alteration and development • winter annual - germinates in fall, flowers the following spring • population size fluctuates from year to year (some years none survive)

4. Local concerns • five populations at WICR • encroaching woody vegetation due to fire supression • exotic species establishment • largest population at a site of great historical significance • how to manage for species and interpretive value simultaneously?

5. Monitoring objectives • How does abundance fluctuate over time? • annual abundance estimates • Which factors are driving abundance changes? • weather data correlated with abundance • demographics sampling, habitat correlates • How is limestone glade habitat changing? • vegetation transects

6. Abundance estimates • Stratified random sampling • data since 1988 • Grid-based census • developed during protocol design • data for 1997 - 1998 • Adaptive cluster sampling • simultaneous with protocol development • data for 1999 - 2001

7. Stratified random sampling

8. Stratified random sampling • 3 meter x 3 meter quadrats • spatially stratified across core area of the population • sample size of 31- 77 quadrats • tally all individuals within the quadrat, subsample for number of stems and fruits per individual

9. Missouri bladderpod abundance

10. Grid-based census • sampling grid covers entire glade, including unoccupied edge areas • visit every 5 x 5 meter grid cell • estimate number of individuals in each cell (log-scaled categories) • periodic calibration by counting all individuals after estimating • simultaneous collection of habitat data for each grid cell

11. Grid-based census Annual brome Missouri bladderpod Red cedar

12. Grid-based census

13. Grid-based census • directional error - consistent underestimation • only tested in years of low abundance

14. Adaptive cluster sampling • based on sampling grid, divided into primary units and secondary units (3 x 3 meters) • subset of primary units selected, random draw to select seed cell • if number of plants in seed cell > 9, adaptive sampling initiated in adjacent cells • record tally of individuals and habitat attribute data for each secondary unit sampled

15. N Sampling grid for Missouri bladderpod

16. Stratified Random Sampling Two-Stage Adaptive Sampling

17. Methods comparison

18. Solution? • reduction of variance • confidence in abundance estimates • comprehensive snapshot of spatial abundance patterns • ability to map and monitor changes in core habitat

19. Missouri bladderpod implementation schedule

20. Demographic monitoring photo: K. Mlekush

21. Demographic monitoring photo: K. Mlekush

22. Understanding Missouri bladderpod life cycle viability Seed bank germination reproduction Mature plants Germinated seedlings survival & growth

23. Most transition rates depend on microhabitat viability Seed bank germination reproduction Microhabitat Mature plants Germinated seedlings survival & growth

24. L. filiformis habitat is variable at small scales photo: K. Mlekush

25. Survival rates by habitat type

26. Freeze-thaw cycles

27. Fecundity by microhabitat

28. Seed production by microhabitat

29. Seed replacement by microhabitat

30. Estimated geometric loss of seed viability data source: Thomas and Jackson 1990

31. Unfinished business • solidify the abundance estimate methods, apply to smaller populations • improved synthesis and reporting