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图解市场

图解市场. 罗宾 • 格里芬. Cazenove Capital Management Limited 12 Moorgate London EC2R 6DA Telephone +44 (0) 20 3479 1000 www.cazenovecapital.com. Registered Office 12 Moorgate London EC2R 6DA R egistered in England No 3017060 Authorised and r egulated by the Financial Services Authority

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图解市场

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  1. 图解市场 罗宾 • 格里芬 Cazenove Capital Management Limited 12 Moorgate London EC2R 6DA Telephone +44 (0) 20 3479 1000 www.cazenovecapital.com Registered Office 12 Moorgate London EC2R 6DA Registered in England No 3017060 Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Cazenove Capital Management Limited provides independent advice

  2. 古代世界地图 Source: mapresources.com

  3. 当代世界地图 Source: mapresources.com

  4. 未来世界地图 Source: mapresources.com

  5. 约瑟夫 • 熊彼特的三周期嵌套模式

  6. 长期有多长？

  7. 十年经济周期 (朱格拉周期) 10 US REAL GDP (%YOY) NADJ Ten year cycle lows 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Thomson Datastream

  8. 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year 道琼斯工业指数: 十年周期模式1900 - 1999

  9. 四年市场周期正好与美国大选周期重叠 Source: Thomson Datastream

  10. 100000 Third Year Election Year Honeymoon Period Reality Attack 10000 Honeymoon Period Reality Attack 1000 Run up to next election 100 Trend is more important than level Data based on dow industrials (Monthly data 1900-2006) 10 Third Year Election Year Honeymoon Period Reality Attack 大选周期：每年的经济表现

  11. S&P 500 Average % gain by month (1964-2005) FTSE All Share Average % gains by month(1962-2005) 3.50 3.09 2.00 3.00 2.59 1.66 2.50 1.38 1.50 1.22 2.00 1.64 0.91 0.81 1.00 1.50 Percentage Gain 0.60 0.90 0.79 Percentage Gain 1.00 0.73 0.50 0.12 0.60 0.12 -0.69 0.50 0.10 -0.37 0.16 -0.25 0.02 0.00 0.00 May July April June May July March April June August January March October February -0.50 August January December October February September November December -0.50 September November -0.07 -0.69 -1.00 -0.75 -1.00 Nikkei 225 Average % gain by month (1960-2005) 3.50 3.03 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.32 2.50 1.69 2.00 1.71 2.00 1.19 1.50 1.24 1.03 1.50 0.50 Percentage Gain 0.69 0.84 0.77 0.82 0.70 0.73 1.00 1.00 0.33 0.24 Percentage Gain 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 May July May July April June April June -0.50 -0.50 March March August August January January October October February February December December November September November September -0.33 -0.04 -1.00 -1.00 -0.04 -0.87 -0.46 -0.40 -1.50 -1.16 -1.50 -1.53 -2.00 历史上月平均股市回报 S&P/TSX Composite Average % gain by month (1969-2005)

  12. 著名的钟形曲线，与另外两种不同的特性相结合著名的钟形曲线，与另外两种不同的特性相结合

  13. 选出真实的市场 Source: The misbehaviour of markets, Bernoit Mandelbrot

  14. 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 Dow Jones Industrial 1960-1980 200D Moving Average 道琼斯工业指数：1960 - 1980

  15. 道琼斯工业指数 1966-1982: 90天美国商业票据200天移动平均值

  16. Slow Growth -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Rapid Growth -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 Zero Growth Negative Growth -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 人口金字塔模型

  17. 80+ 80+ 75-79 Male Female 75-79 70-74 Male Female 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0 -4 0 -4 100 50 0 50 100 100 50 0 50 100 2000 Millions 2025 Millions 80+ 75-79 Male Female 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0 -4 100 50 0 50 100 Millions 2050 印度人口结构: 2000, 2025 和 2050

  18. 80+ 80+ 75-79 75-79 Male Female Male Female 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0 -4 0 -4 20 10 0 10 20 20 10 0 10 20 Millions Millions 1980 1960 80+ 80+ 75-79 Male Female Male 75-79 Female 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0 -4 0 -4 20 10 0 10 20 20 10 0 10 20 Millions Millions 2000 2020 婴儿潮一代在美国人口金字塔当中的位置: 1960 - 2020 Baby Boom "Echo" Baby Boom Cohort

  19. 80+ 80+ 75-79 75-79 Male Female 70-74 Male Female 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0 -4 0 -4 5 3 1 1 3 5 5 3 1 1 3 5 2000 2025 Millions Millions 80+ 75-79 Male Female 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0 -4 5 3 1 1 3 5 2050 Millions 英国人口结构：2000, 2025 和 2050

  20. W a c d D e Y a w b y b y e c B d d w e z b x c y b x e a d X E c d x b a e C c A Z=A 标准路线图 19

  21. D W Y B E X C Z=A A 被现实向下趋势扭曲的标准路线图 20

  22. Y W D Z=A B X E C A 被现实向上趋势扭曲的标准路线图 21

  23. 标普500指数 Source: Thomson Datastream

  24. 富时100指数 Source: Thomson Datastream

  25. 日经225指数 Source: Thomson Datastream

  26. 德国DAX 30指数 Source: Thomson Datastream

  27. 希腊Athex综合指数 Source: Thomson Datastream

  28. 印度Sensex 30指数 Source: Thomson Datastream

  29. 中国沪指 Source: Thomson Datastream

  30. 巴西Bovespa指数 Source: Thomson Datastream

  31. 黄金价格 Source: Thomson Datastream

  32. 贸易加权美元 Source: Thomson Datastream

  33. 欧元/美元 Source: Thomson Datastream

  34. 英镑/美元 Source: Thomson Datastream

  35. 美国30年期国债收益 Source: Thomson Datastream

  36. 免责声明 • This document is issued by Cazenove Capital Management Limited (Cazenove Capital), a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Values may fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount you invested. Income from investments may fluctuate. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of investments. You should be aware of the additional risks associated with investment in emerging and developing markets. Unregulated collective investment schemes operated in offshore centres are unlikely to offer a level of investor protection equivalent to the UK. Such schemes may deal infrequently and may limit redemptions. • Some of the investments we may make on your behalf could be in investment companies which use gearing as a strategy or invest in other investment companies which use gearing, such as investment trusts. The strategy which the issuer of such securities uses or proposes to use may result in movements in the price of the securities being more volatile than the movements in the price of underlying investments. The investment may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and you may get back nothing at all if there is a sufficiently large fall. • Where reference is made to structured capital at risk products these are normally required to be held for the full term to preserve the protected capital value, the return at maturity over and above the protected capital value depends on the performance of the corresponding market index and fees, and there is an exposure to the creditworthiness of the issuer for both the protected capital value and the return over and above the protected capital value. It is possible to sell the product during the term, but if it is sold before maturity the proceeds of the sale may be less than the original sum invested. • This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

  37. 中文翻译由中国庄禾投资友情提供。由于译者时间精力有限，译文中难免有疏漏和不当之处，敬请批评指正。Unofficial translation provided by China Zhuanghe Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. (CZH) 英国 伦敦 Add: 83 Baker Street, London, W1U 6AG, United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7034 7924 Contact: fgao@chinazhuanghe.com 中国 北京 建国门内大街7号 光华长安大厦A座307室 邮编: 100005 电话: +86 10 5911 1088 传真: +86 10 5911 1089 联系: mzhong@chinazhuanghe.com

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