Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update

1. Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Wednesday, March 19, 2014

2. Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Introduction to the 2014 Population Projection Allocation Update Overview Bureau of Economic and Business Research Population Forecast (BEBR) BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County Broward County Households by Age of Householder Broward County Households by Household Size Assignment of Dwelling Units, Households, and Household Population to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) Municipal Forecast of Dwelling Units, Households, and Population

3. I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update • An update of forecast model developed in 2012 that was professionally acceptable and replicable. • A continuation and update of the County’s 2012 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts. • The update includes modifications and comments obtained from the 2012 Population Roundtable process approved methodology. • Replaced internally-developed countywide forecasts with population forecasts prepared by University of Florida’s BEBR.

4. I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Key Input • University of Florida’s BEBR, “Detailed Population Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, for Florida and Its Counties, 2015-2040, With Estimates for 2012 All Races” Key Action • Convert and assign the BEBR forecasted estimates (2015-2040) to Broward County’s 2010 TAZ and municipalities using a household based model. Key Output • Forecasts of households, household size, group quarters’ population, seasonally-occupied housing units, and all-other vacant units for years 2015 through 2040 in 5-year increments and supporting documentation. • TAZ and municipal level forecasts of housing and population data for years 2015 through 2040 in 5-year increments. **Base year of 2010 provided for reference purposes.

5. I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Household-Based Model Assumptions • BEBR’s forecasts by population age are converted to countywide household forecasts. Assigned to TAZ based on interaction between • The change in the countywide household-size distribution through forecast periods; • The established TAZ-level distribution of households; and • The capacity of each TAZ to absorb additional housing units.Generally based on the Land Use Plan and vacant land capacity.

6. II. BEBR Population Forecast • BEBR annually projects population for Florida and its counties. • The percentage change between 2012 and 2040 is approximately 14.8%. • County population growth is projected to average 10,000 annually through 2025 and 8,800 for the remainder of the period. • Growth is dramatically lower than County’s historic growth which averaged 20,000 or more annually between 1970 and 2005.

7. II. BEBR Population Forecast Broward Amongst Other Counties • Most of the future growth will continue to occur primarily in the most populous counties. • Through 2040, Miami-Dade and Broward Counties remain 1st and 2nd.

8. II. BEBR Population Forecast Broward Amongst Other Counties • Much of Florida’s population growth (25% or nearly 1.7 million additional people by 2040) will be seen in a swath crossing the middle portion of the Florida Peninsula, including Orange, Hillsborough, Polk, Pasco and Osceola Counties.

9. II. BEBR Population Forecast Reflections on Recent History • Past growth was accommodated by the County’s supply of ample vacant developable land. • By 2005, nearly all the vacant developable land in the County was built out. • Future growth now is primarily dependent on redevelopment.

10. III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County 184,061 376,356 • By 2040, the number of residents ages 70 and greater is projected to more than double the 2012 count.

11. III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County • Impacts from age cohort changes become more apparent as groups are consolidated.

12. III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County Impacts from within the age cohorts • Total “School Age” population remains relatively stable. • “New Householders” generally increases over the forecast, though there are a couple of periods of stagnation or even slight declines. • “Peak Earners” cohort trends downward as the workforce is eroded through life events (retirement) • By 2040, the baby-boom cohort is decreased by more than half of its 2012 size.

13. III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County Impacts from within the age cohorts • Baby-Boomer households downsizing will compete against new household creation and have impacts on the need for health care services, placing increasing demands on Medicare and Medicaid while reducing the number of wage-earners and associated tax revenues. • While the population gradually increases, the number of people generally considered as potential participants in the labor force remains constant through 2025 and declines thereafter. • Relatively fewer dollars circulating in the economy.

14. QUESTIONS

15. IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder • Principal component in determining the number of households is the age distribution of the population. • The Forecast Percentages reflect a weighted average of twice the 2000 percentages and one of the 2010.

16. IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder • Broward County Householders by Age Group calculated by applying the forecasted percentage of householders as percent of age group applied to population by age groups.

17. IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder Inside the County’s Householders by Age Forecast • Most rapid household increases occur during the current five-year period. • As the baby-boomer household numbers decline from their peak, there may be an oversupply of larger family homes awaiting occupancy. • Doubling of the 65 and older households while the 45 to 64 age group gradually declines. • Forecasts portend housing unit growth at a more subdued pace than County experienced during nearly the entire last half century.

18. V. Broward County Households by Household Size • Represents the average household size distribution for the County according to the identified age groups and household size for the years 2015-2040. • Percentages calculated using the Census 2000 from Summary File 1 for the County. • 2010 percentages were estimated from the 2000 distribution rates and calibrated to the 2010 actual distribution. • Both rates were combined using a weighted average of twice the 2000 percentages and one of the 2010.

19. V. Broward County Households by Household Size • Key Findings • 94% of household growth from 2010 to 2040 is found in the smaller households. This can be traced back to the growth in householders ages 75 and older, which can account for nearly all household growth beginning with year 2020. • Mid-size households increases are minor and larger households decline over the forecast period. • Displays the results of the distribution percentages applied to the forecast households. • Contains the household and housing unit information to be assigned to Broward’s TAZs.

20. V. Broward County Households by Household Size Key Findings (continued) • Empty-nesting baby-boom generation will impact Broward’s housing market. Whether decide to live in their current homes with extra rooms or to “downsize” to smaller homes. • If enough downsize, there will be a significant demand for smaller homes and an excess of larger homes. • If fewer households downsize, the impact likely would be to encourage redevelopment in more selective areas.

21. V. Broward County Households by Household Size • Presents household size table from a different perspective, the population according to household size. • While smaller households occupy the majority of housing units; more of the population resides in mid-size households (3-, 4-, or 5-person households), through 2020 slightly more than 50% and slightly less thereafter. • **Note: Household Population = the number of 1-person households + (2 * the number of 2-person households) + (3 * the number of 3-person households) +…+ (7.83, average size of the 7+ households* the number of 7+ households)

22. VI. Assignment of Dwelling Units, Households and Household Population to TAZs • This stage of allocation occurs into the Broward County’s 2010 TAZ boundaries (953 unique geographic areas). • Distributed to TAZs by a methodology that respects the individual TAZ’s unique set of selected characteristics and its capacity to accept growth. • Allocation requires that each TAZ be assigned a maximum number of dwelling units. This maximum reflects the influence of the Broward County Land Use Plan (amendments and current designations) and vacant land capacity. • Served as the stage in the 2012 forecasts for the input from the 2012 Population Roundtable process. Input included: • Estimated maximums for TAZs that contain Regional Activity Centers, Local Activity Centers, Transportation Oriented Corridors or other irregular Land Use Plan designations; and • Identification of TAZs for “redevelopment” since vacant residential lands are exhausted by 2025.

23. VI. Assignment of Dwelling Units, Households and Household Population to TAZs Assignment methodology for TAZs Step 1. Determine #of households by size & vacant units required by next forecast year: Convert existing household size distribution for each TAZ to reflect anticipated countywide change distribution for coming forecast year. Step 2. Determine attractiveness of each TAZ to accept growth: Vacant land capacity, land use plan and its existing housing inventory. Step 3. Determine household size distribution of the additional units for each TAZ: Based on unique distribution of household characteristics, businesses in area, and nearby public services. Step 4. Determine preliminary total of households by size assigned to each TAZ: Matrix of percentages of future growth by household size for each TAZ. Step 5. Enforce TAZ unit maximums: TAZs exceeding maximum have excess units apportioned by household size; subtracted from the TAZ; and added into pool of households to be re-distributed.

24. VII. Municipal Forecast of Dwelling Units, Households, and Population • Arranging the TAZ forecast data into its proper jurisdiction and compiling the numbers creates the municipal forecast. Methodology for assigning TAZs to jurisdictions Step 1. Assign TAZs to local jurisdictions: 2012 municipal boundary map superimposed onto a TAZ boundary map creates a TAZ-to- jurisdiction cross reference Step 2. Apportion TAZs among multiple jurisdictions: 2010 Census Block data combined with aerial photography were used to establish the portions of the TAZ forecasts assigned to each jurisdiction Step 3. Benchmark the TAZ assignments to the 2010 Census: Review compiled forecast data to see if differences greater than 1% existed. Step 4. Assign Group Quarters Population: Census 2010 rate of 0.97% applied to total population yields group quarters

25. Final Products of the Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Two Principal products of the forecasts A shapefile and series of Excel Worksheets: • BasicTAZdata2014-DRAFT: Table organizing TAZ-level forecasts  by Dwelling Units, Population ,and Households for 2010-2040 in 5-year increments. • Muni_TAZ_2014-DRAFT:Set of tables displaying the final distribution of housing and population to Broward County's local jurisdictions by TAZ. • HouseholdTAZdata2014-DRAFT: Set of tables representing TAZ -level forecasts  organized by housing data. • TAZ_FinalForecast2014-DRAFT: Shapefile of the file, BasicTAZdata2014-DRAFT. 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Report • Contains all tables referenced in presentation

26. Environmental Protection and Growth Management Department Planning and Redevelopment Division 115 South Andrews Avenue, Room 329K Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301 Broward.org/EnvironmentAndGrowth/ 954.357.6634