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An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009

An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009. Jurgita Bucyte Adviser in Statistics and Economic Affairs ALB National Conference, Bucharest 18 November 2010. Agenda. About Leaseurope Global Leasing Markets in 2009 Evolution of the European Leasing Market

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An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009

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  1. An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009 Jurgita Bucyte Adviser in Statistics and Economic Affairs ALB National Conference, Bucharest18 November 2010

  2. Agenda • About Leaseurope • Global Leasing Markets in 2009 • Evolution of the European Leasing Market • European Leasing Market in 2009: - Asset Breakdowns - Regional Performance - Client Sectors • European Leasing Penetration • The European Leasing Market in H1 2010

  3. About Leaseurope • The voice ofleasing and automotive rentalin Europe • It brings together 45 Member Associations • In turn representing more than 1 300 finance leasing firms & more than 780 short term rental companies • Leaseurope represents~93%of the European leasing market Leaseuropemembers

  4. Global Leasing Markets in 2009 Canada CFLA 20 bil€ Japan JLA 38 bil€ -32% -20% Leaseurope 209 bil€ US ELFA 124 bil€ -19% China CLBA 29 bil€ -10% Brazil ABEL 11 bil€ 0% Australia AELA & AFLA 10 bil€ New equipment leasing volumes (Leaseurope volumes include real estate) ELFA figures do not include passenger car leasing AELA figures are for FY 2009 Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey, local leasing associations, Leaseurope estimates

  5. Global Leasing Markets in 2009: Europe Results from Leaseurope’s 2009 Annual Enquiry NEW VOLUMES Movables Total Real Estate 209 €bil Leaseurope Annual Survey 25 €bil 185 €bil Estimated TOTAL Market 231 €bil OUTSTANDINGS Movables Total Real Estate Leaseurope Annual Survey 686 €bil 211€bil 475 €bil Estimated TOTAL Market 725 €bil Source: Leaseurope estimates, Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey of European Leasing 29 member associations in 24 countries reporting, figures include hire purchase products when reported by member associations

  6. 30.0% 25% 16.5% 15.3% 14.8% 15% 12.4% 5% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -5% -0.7% -8.7% -15% -25% -35% Total New Volumes Real Estate Evolution of the European Leasing Market Evolution of the European leasing market New business, annual % change (1995 – 2009) New volumes % 2008/9 -31.0% - €100 bil -32.3% -32.5% Movables Growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year Growth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations. When adjusted for exchange rates, total new leasing volumes decreased by 30.3% from ’08 to ’09. Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys

  7. Evolution of the European Leasing Market Evolution of the European leasing market New business, annual % change CAGR (1995-2009) 25% 15% 3.8% 5% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -5% 5.4% -15% 5.8% -25% -35% Total New Volumes Real Estate Movables CAGR calculated for the 18 associations reporting from ’95-’09 Growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year Growth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys

  8. Evolution of the European Leasing Market Evolution of new business by country New vol, annual % change (2009/2008) -15 to - 25% -25 to - 35% -35 to - 50% - 50% and lower NA Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual SurveyGrowth rates are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsNote: AT domestic leasing business decreased by 23%

  9. The European Leasing Market in 2009 Leased assets Total new volumes per asset category, % 2008 2009 6% 7% Real estate 35% 38% 11% 10% Machines & equip CVs 12% Cars 11% ICT Big/other 18% 16% 18% 19% 54% Automotive Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey Figures shown in pie charts may not add to 100% due to rounding

  10. Cars financed/purchased ST rental Total Leasing units 704 400 5 500 900 4 796 500 of which: 76% new cars business use 61% 77 € (bil) 10 87 Portfolio/fleet Leasing ST rental Total units 13 665 000 546 500 14 211 500 The European Leasing Market in 2009 Leaseurope’s weight in the car sector (2009) Based on figures reported in the 2009 Annual Survey & Leaseurope estimates; includes figures from short term rental associations

  11. The European Leasing Market in 2009 European leasing volumes per asset category Annual % change (2009/2008) ICT CVs Cars Big/other Machinery 5% Real Estate Movables 0% 5% Total -5% 0% 5% -10% -5% 0% -15% -10% -5% -20% -10% -15% -18.7% -25% -20% -15% -26.7% -30% -20% -25% -35% -30% -25% -31.0% -40% -36.8% -35% -32.5% -38.5% -41.1% -35% -32.3% Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: 2009 Leaseurope Annual Survey

  12. The European Leasing Market in 2009 Regional performance by movable asset category New business growth - annual % change (2009/2008) BE,NLAT,CH CEE MED. UK IT Nordic DE FR 0% -10% -20% -22% -25% -20% -30% -27% -28% -26% -26% -30% -30% -32% -32% -40% -40% -50% -49% -52% -60% -56% -58% Machines & Equip ICT Big/Other Vehicles Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey

  13. The European Leasing Market in 2009 Regional performance – automotive sector New business growth - annual % change (2009/2008) BE,NLAT,CH Nordic CEE MED. IT UK DE FR 0% -10% -16% -20% -19% -23% -25% -25% -26% -30% -28% -31% -38% -37% -40% -37% -38% -39% -45% -50% -56% -60% Passenger Cars -62% Commercial Vehicles Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey

  14. The European Leasing Market in 2009 Leasing clients New movables leasing volumes by sector & cluster (2009) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% BE,NLAT,CH CEE DE UK FR IT MED. Nordic Businesses Consumers Public Other Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey

  15. European Leasing Penetration Evolution of leasing penetration in Europe 20 countries (1999-2009) 22% 18% 16% 12% 7% 3% Movables Total Volumes Real Estate Lease penetration is the share of total investment (excluding residential real estate) financed by leasing Calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation for the 20 associations reporting from ’99-’09 Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat (GFCF)

  16. European Leasing Penetration Why is lease penetration falling ? Leasing vs investment growth (excl real estate) Annual % change 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% Leasing (excl RE) Investment (excl RE) Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat, Commission Spring Forecast, Global Insight

  17. 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -5% -10% -15% European Investment Why is lease penetration falling ? Total vs public investment (2001-2015, Western Europe) Annual % change Total Investment Public Investment Growth rates are calculated based on EU-15 (excl LU) including NO and CH Source: HIS Global Insight

  18. European Lease Penetration Share of total investment financed by leasing 2008 > 25 % 15.5% 20% to 25% 15% to 20% 10% to 15% < 10 % NA Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation (excluding residential real estate) Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat

  19. European Lease Penetration Share of total investment financed by leasing 2009 > 25 % 12.2% 20% to 25% 15% to 20% 10% to 15% < 10 % NA Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation (excluding residential real estate) Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat

  20. The European Leasing Market in H1 2010 H1 2010/09 % +0.3% H1 2010 New volumes* 94 bil€ over 10 % 0 to 10% -10 to 0% -25 to - 10% CEE cluster: -8.3% -25% and lower NA Source: Leaseurope Member Associations *24 member associations reporting; growth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations

  21. Concluding Remarks Total new volumes (% YoY) 60% 40% 20% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 CEE: What’s next? -20% -40% -56% -60% Investment – annual change (% YoY) 30% 20% 10% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -10% -20% Europe CEE -30% Source: IHS Global Insight

  22. An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009 Jurgita Bucyte Adviser in Statistics and Economic Affairs ALB National Conference, Bucharest18 November 2010

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