MAARTEN WOLBERS RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN RUUD LUIJKX TILBURG UNIVERSITY

1. MAARTEN WOLBERS RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN RUUD LUIJKXTILBURG UNIVERSITY WOUT ULTEERADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN RC 28 HAIFA UNIVERSITY MAY 8-11, 2010

2. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, OCCUPATIONAL ACHIEVEMENTS, CAREER PROGRESS AND CAREER PEAKS: The Netherlands in the second part of the 20th century

4. COLLECTION OF JOB HISTORIES STARTED IN 1980 WITH MAYER THE DUNCAN- QUESTION OF THE EXPLANATION OF CURRENT JOB IS A LESS THAN WORTHWHILE QUESTION NEW GENERATION UNTIL NOW DID NOT DELIVER WITH RESPECT TO CAREER PROGRESS AND CAREER PEAKS WHILE THE DUNCAN-MODEL OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE-CYCLE IS NOT AS BAD AS IT HAS BEEN MADE OUT

5. THE EXEMPLAR OF THE SECOND GENERATION DUNCAN’S BASIC MODEL FOR THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE IN THE USA IN 1962

6. FIRST RE-INVENTION OF THE DUNCAN-MODEL FO SE SFO SCO RECURRENT EFFECTS OF FATHER’S OCCUPATION AS A MECHANISM OF INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION ARE THESE RECURRENT EFFECTS THERE FOR THE NETHERLANDS?

7. SECOND RE-INVENTION SE SFO SCO RECURRENT EFFECTS OF SON’S EDUCATION AS A MECHANISM OF INTRAGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION ARE THESE RECURRENT EFFECTS THERE FOR THE NETHERLANDS TOO?

8. THIRD RE-INVENTION FO SE SFO CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF FATHER’S OCCUPATION AND OF SON’S EDUCATION AS A MECHANISM OF INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION CUMULATIVE EFFECTS FOR THE NETHERLANDS?

9. FOURTH RE-INVENTION SFO + SCO THE OCCUPATIONAL CAREER AS A SELF-REINFORCING PROCESS A SELF-REINFORCING PROCESS IN THE NETHERLANDS?

10. MAYER-OBJECTIONS AGAINST DUNCAN-MODELS: DISTANCE IN YEARS BETWEEN SON’S FIRST AND CURRENT OCCUPATION DIFFERS FROM SON TO SON; THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SEPARATING AGE-, COHORT, AND PERIOD EFFECTS OUR SOLUTION: FOCUS ON, SAY, SON’S JOB AFTER TEN YEARS

11. FIFTH AND SIXTH RE-INVENTION SE S01 S010 SE S01 S020 TO BRING IN QUESTIONS ON CAREER PROGRESS, FOCUS ON SON’S JOB AFTER TEN YEARS AND SON’S JOB AFTER TWENTY YEARS

13. THIS PAPER’S DATA SERIES OF FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION WITH NEW SAMPLES FOR 1993 1998 2000 2003 PLUS HIN 2005 RETROSPECTIVE JOB HISTORIES FOR MEN AGED 18-70

14. SELECTION OF MEN AGED 45 YEARS OR OLDER THREE LABOUR MARKET ENTRY COHORTS: 1950s 1960s 1970s WOMEN DESERVE SEPARATE TREATMENT IT WOULD BE UNWISE AND UNNECESSARY TO SELECT ONLY MEN WHO DEFINITIVELY RETIRED FROM THE LABOUR MARKET ALL IN ALL SOME 1,100 CASES FATHER’S AND SON’S OCCUPATION MEASURED AS ISEI RANGING FROM 16 TO 100

15. ACCORDING TO MULTINOMIAL AND ORDERED LOGIT MODELS FOR SON’S EDUCATION THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE EFFECT OF FATHER’S OCCUPATION ON SON’S LEVEL OF EDUCATION THE EFFECT OF FATHER’S OCCUPATION ON SON’S LEVEL OF EDUCATION DOES NOT DIFFER BETWEEN COHORTS

16. THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS STEM FROM MODELS FOR FIRST JOB, JOB AFTER TEN AND TWENTY YEARS THESE MODELS SKIP INTERACTIONS WITH COHORT ALL THESE INTERACTIONS ARE INSIGNIFICANT

17. WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR SON’S FIRST OCCUPATION, THERE IS A POSITIVE DIRECT EFFECT OF FATHER’S OCCUPATION NET OF A POSTIVE EFFECT OF SON’S EDUCATION SO: CUMULATIVE EFFECT AND RECURRENT EFFECT

18. EXPLAINING FIRST JOB, JOB AFTER TEN, AND JOB AFTER TWENTY YEARS OF LABOUR MARKET EXPERIENCE FIRST TEN TEN TWENTY 30.7 35.9 21.2 29.5 INSIG 2.6 2.4 4.1 INSIG INSIG 3.5 INSIG N.I. INSIG INSIG -0.5 0.2 0.1 INSIG INSIG N.I. N.I. 0.5 0.4 INSIG INSIG INSIG 3.5 INSIG 3.5 INSIG 4.0 8.3 12.6 8.6 9.2 14.8 16.2 9.1 11.3 22.8 21.6 10.4 13.5 CONSTANT 1960s/1950s 1970s/1950s CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT LEVEL FATHER’S OCCUPATION FIRST OCCUPATION FIRST CONTRAST EDUCATION SECOND CONTRAST THIRD CONTRAST FOURTH CONTRAST FIFTH CONTRAST

19. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OF FATHER’S JOB ON SON’S JOB AFTER TEN YEARS, BUT IT BECOMES INDIRECT AFTER ADDING SON’S FIRST JOB TO THE MODEL THE EFFECT OF FATHER’S JOB DOES NOT CONTAIN A RECURRENT EFFECT, BUT COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF CUMULATION

20. EXPLAINING FIRST JOB, JOB AFTER TEN, AND JOB AFTER TWENTY YEARS OF LABOUR MARKET EXPERIENCE FIRST TEN TEN TWENTY 30.7 35.9 21.2 29.5 INSIG 2.6 2.4 4.1 INSIG INSIG 3.5 INSIG N.I. INSIG INSIG -0.5 0.2 0.1 INSIG INSIG N.I. N.I. 0.5 0.4 INSIG INSIG INSIG 3.5 INSIG 3.5 INSIG 4.0 8.3 12.6 8.6 9.2 14.8 16.2 9.1 11.3 22.8 21.6 10.4 13.5 CONSTANT 1960s/1950s 1970s/1950s CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT LEVEL FATHER’S OCCUPATION FIRST OCCUPATION FIRST CONTRAST EDUCATION SECOND CONTRAST THIRD CONTRAST FOURTH CONTRAST FIFTH CONTRAST

21. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OF FIRST JOB ON JOB AFTER TEN YEARS AND ON JOB AFTER TWENTY YEARS THE OCCUPATIONAL CAREER IS A SELF-REINFORCING PROCESS CONFESSION OF SIN: WE DID NOT ESTIMATE A MODEL WITH AN EFFECT OF FIRST JOB AND JOB AFTER TEN YEARS ON JOB AFTER TWENTY YEARS

22. EXPLAINING FIRST JOB, JOB AFTER TEN, AND JOB AFTER TWENTY YEARS OF LABOUR MARKET EXPERIENCE FIRST TEN TEN TWENTY 30.7 35.9 21.2 29.5 INSIG 2.6 2.4 4.1 INSIG INSIG 3.5 INSIG N.I. INSIG INSIG -0.5 0.2 0.1 INSIG INSIG N.I. N.I. 0.5 0.4 INSIG INSIG INSIG 3.5 INSIG 3.5 INSIG 4.0 8.3 12.6 8.6 9.2 14.8 16.2 9.1 11.3 22.8 21.6 10.4 13.5 CONSTANT 1960s/1950s 1970s/1950s CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT LEVEL FATHER’S OCCUPATION FIRST OCCUPATION FIRST CONTRAST EDUCATION SECOND CONTRAST THIRD CONTRAST FOURTH CONTRAST FIFTH CONTRAST

23. AFTER 20 YEARS, EDUCATION EFFECTS ARE STRONGER THAN AFTER 10 YEARS

25. MORE ON CAREER PROGRESS MAYER-LINES FOR DUTCH DATA AND COHORTS: LINE FOR AVERAGE JOB STATUS AS DEPENDING UPON NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER LABOUR MARKET ENTRY THE LINE FOR THE 1970s COHORT GOES DOWN

26. NEW LINES ABOUT PERSONS REACHING THEIR PEAK 50% OF THE 1950s COHORT MEN REACHES PEAK WITHIN 120 MONTHS 50% OF THE 1960s COHORT MEN REACHES PEAK WITHIN 90 MONTHS 50% OF THE 1970s COHORT MEN REACHES PEAK WITHIN 60 MONTHS

27. MORE MAYER-LINES AVERAGE STATUS PROGRESS AFTER LEVEL OF EDUCATION STATUS RISES MOST FOR LOWEST EDUCATION

28. MORE NEW LINES OF MEN WITH PR + LS EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 50 MONTHS OF MEN WITH IS + HS EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 50 MONTHS OF MEN WITH TERTIARY EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 100 MONTHS OF THE MEN WITH THE LOWEST EDUCATION, 50% PEAKS AFTER 150 MONTHS OF THE MEN WITH INTERMEDIATE EDUCATION, 50% PEAKS AFTER100 MONTHS OF THE MEN WITH THE HIGHEST EDUCATION, 50% PEAKS AFTER 50 MONTHS

30. THIS PAPER’S PEAK-QUESTION : ARE THERE EFFECTS OF THE FACTORS EDUCATION, FATHER’S OCCUPATION, STATUS OF FIRST OCCUPATION, MONTHS ON THE LABOUR MARKET, AND NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ON THE ODDS OF MOVING DURING SOME FIXED PERIOD FROM NON-PEAK TO PEAK? AND DO THEY DIFFER FOR COHORTS?

31. DETERMINE FOR EACH MAN HIS CAREER PEAK NOW MAKE A MEN-MONTHS FILE DETERMINE WHETHER A MAN AT THE BEGINNING OF A MONTH IS AT THE PEAK OF HIS CAREER IF YES, DELETE THESE CASES IF NO, DETERMINE WHETHER THIS MAN AT THE END OF A MONTH IS AT HIS PEAK TAKE THE NUMBER OF MONTHS SINCE LABOUR MARKET ENTRY AS A TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATE

32. RESULTS OF EVENT-MODELS: FATHER’S OCCUPATION NO DIRECT EFFECT FIRST OCCUPATION DIRECT POSITIVE EFFECT OF FIVE EDUCATION CONTRASTS, THE THREE HIGHEST DIRECT POSITIVE EFFECTS WORK EXPERIENCE HAS A POSITIVE DIRECT EFFECT, WORK EXPERIENCE SQUARED A NEGATIVE DIRECT EFFECT, THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS NO DIRECT EFFECT TWO SIGNIFICANT INTERACTIONS OF EDUCATION CONTRASTS WITH COHORT (OUT OF TEN)

34. THIS PRESENTATION IS PLACED ON MY WEBSITE TYPE MY NAME WOUT ULTEE IN GOOGLE AND MY WEBSITE IS THE FIRST HIT CLICK TO (FOREIGN) PRESENTATIONS THEN CLICK TO HAIFA 2010 Right click to save, then open Do not open immediately and do not left click