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Testing Efficacy of Monthly Forecast Application in Agrometeorology: Winter Wheat Phenology Dynamic

This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of monthly weather forecast application in predicting winter wheat phenology dynamics in Serbia.

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Testing Efficacy of Monthly Forecast Application in Agrometeorology: Winter Wheat Phenology Dynamic

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  1. Testing efficacy of monthly forecast application in agrometeorology: Winter wheat phenology dynamic B. Lalica, D. Jankovic b, Lj. Dekic c, J. Eitzingerd, A. Firanj Sremac e a Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Serbia bForecastingand Warning Service of Serbia in plant protection c Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia dInstituteof Meteorology, BOKU, Austria e Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Serbia

  2. Research group descriptionGoals & ObjectivesCurrent results and activitiesPlans OUTLINES EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  3. Plant abiotic stress tolerance Crop management methods to reduce evapotranspiration EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 R e s e a r c h t o p i c s Spatial distribution of precipitation Atmosphere-soil-plant turbulent transfer Application of numerical weather prediction in assessing environmental conditions for appearance of harmful organisms

  4. UNIFI BOKU PFNS EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  5. DECISION SUPPORT EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  6. PARTICIPANTS • Coordinators, • Executors & Observers • 29 regional centers 2. PLANT PRODUCTION • Field crops, • Vegetables, • Fruit – Wine RESOURSES EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 3. TOOLS • Pheromone & Light traps • 113 AWS network • Experiments • Visual- biological observation • More than 2000 observation places in 2015.

  7. The AWS Network EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  8. Widen understanding of processes describing biosphere-atmosphere interaction and its application in agrometeorology through improved modeling of forest/orchard/crop canopy microclimate GOALS & OBJECTIVES EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  9. Explore impact of vegetation on surface layer turbulenceModelling processes affecting canopy energy and water balance SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  10. Specific objectives – In order to ... • Improve NWP in case when vegetation is lower boundary in weather prediction model • Forecast • biosphere-atmosphere GHG exchange • plant stress conditions (drought, extreme temp.) • plant development dynamics • meteorological conditions for harmful organism appereance EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  11. Specific objectives – Application... • Application of advanced meteorological products • Numerical weather prediction of different scales (short range, monthly, seasonal, climate runs) • Satelite products (?) • Application through • Plant & harmful organism phenology models • Crop models EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  12. Yield and plant phenology dynamics • DONE: • Monthly forecast & yield • ONGOING: • Monthly forecast & phenology • Harmful organism phenology • DONE: • BAHUS - Short range application • CC assessment • WN mosquito modeling • ONGOING: • PIS – algorithms for new pathogens • Biosphere-atmosphere interaction • DONE: • LAD(z) • G(z) • CO2, NOX • Lw, Tw • ONGOING: • Seasonal and daily variation of albedo, Cd, u*, time and length scales EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  13. Monthly forecast & phenology results – Changes in phenology dynamics EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 GROWING PROBLEM Shift in appearance of "four tillers detectable" - growing stage of winter wheat in Serbia (Source: PIS Serbia).

  14. RESULTS Monthly weather forecast Source: Monthly EPS products of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast) Forecast: March 1, 2005 - June 30, 2005; 51-member ensemble (boundary conditions for WRF NMM model) EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  15. RESULTS Phenology model Model: PIS_PHEN Source: Forecasting and Warning Service of Serbia in plant protection Methodology: Continuous observation of plant growing stages according to BBCH scale Cultivar: Winter wheat EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  16. RESULTS Verification statistics Ensemble statistics EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 Control run statistics

  17. RESULTS SItes EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016

  18. RESULTS - Calculated phenology dynamic 0 oC lower threshold EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 Observed weather vs. monthly weather forecast

  19. RESULTS - Calculated phenology dynamic 5 oC lower threshold EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 Observed weather vs. monthly weather forecast

  20. “This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research andinnovation programme under grant agreement No 691998”.

  21. back . EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 Lalic, B., D.T. Mihailovic, 2004: An Empirical Relation Describing Leaf Area Density inside the forest for Environmental Modelling, J. Appl. Meteor., 43, No. 4: 641–645.

  22. . back . EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 Lalic, B.,  Firanj, A.,  Mihailovic, D.,T., Podrascanin, Z., 2013: Parameterization of PAR vertical profile within horizontally uniform forest canopies for use in environmental modeling (Article), Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 118, 15, 8156-8165.

  23. back . EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 Firanj, A., Lalic, B., Ganzeveld, L., Podrascanin, Z. (2015) The Impact of Forest Canopy Structure on Simulations of Atmosphere-Biosphere NOX exchange. In: Advances in Environmental Research (Ed. Justin A. Daniels). NOVA Science Publisher, Inc., New York, vol. 41, ISBN: 978-1-63482-911-3, pp. 1-18.

  24. back Seasonal variation of Lw vs. LAI EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 Seasonal variation of lmix

  25. back . BAHUS model ASSESSMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR PLANT DISEASE APPEREANCE Venturiainequalis Erviniaamylovora Plasmoparaviticola EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 Accumulated GDD, leaf wetness duration and apple scab infection intensity in apple orchard on Rimski Sancevi (Serbia) Lalic, B. Francia, M., Eitzinger, J., Podrascanin, Z., Arsenic, I., 2015: Effectiveness of Short-term Numerical Weather Predictionin Predicting Growing Degree Days and MeteorologicalConditions for Apple Scab Appearance, Meteorological Applications, DOI: 10.1002/met.1521.

  26. back . BAHUS model ASSESSMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR PLANT DISEASE APPEREANCE EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 Climate change impact on downy mildew appereance – Shift in beginning of incubation period in 2030 and 2050 relative to 1971-2000 (Rimski Sancevi , Serbia) Lalic, B., D. Janković, M. Ninkov, 2013: Assessment of climate change impact on downy mildew appearance in Serbia using ECHAM5 climate model outputs, Environmental changes and adaptation strategies, Proceedings, Ed.: B. Siska and J. Skvarenina, Skalica,(Slovakia), 9th – 11th September 2013, p. 160-164.

  27. back . Monthly forecast & YIELD results – EFFICACY IN YIELD PREDICTION Ensembl forecasting: MARCH-JUNE observed vs. Monthly CROP MODEL -SIRIUS: WINTER WHEAT Observations: BOKU-MET (Austria) and Pest Management Service of Vojvodina (Serbia) www.pisvojvodina.com♣ Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) EOBAR Conference, Bejing, China, 16-17 May 2016 Lalic, Dekic, Eitzinger, Firanj-Sremac (Manuscipt in preparation)

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