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Performance Monitoring’s Three Blind Spots Ricardo Wilson-Grau

Performance Monitoring’s Three Blind Spots Ricardo Wilson-Grau. USAID Complexity -Aware Monitoring Discovery Launch 21 October 2013 Washington, DC. Fish Soup Development Story. Inspired by Monika Jetzin , Global Water Partnership , Hungary. Basic logic model. Vision and Mission.

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Performance Monitoring’s Three Blind Spots Ricardo Wilson-Grau

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  1. Performance Monitoring’s Three Blind Spots Ricardo Wilson-Grau USAID Complexity-Aware Monitoring Discovery Launch 21 October 2013 Washington, DC Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net

  2. Fish Soup Development Story Inspired by Monika Jetzin, Global Water Partnership , Hungary Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net

  3. Basic logic model Vision and Mission IMPACT результат OUTCOMES результат OUTPUTS результат ACTIVITIES INPUTS Plan Time Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net

  4. Impact • Children are healthy adults • Outcome • Children consider the soup delicious and begin demanding fish soup weekly • Output • Children taste the most nourishing fish soup in the world • Activities • Mother or father carefully prepare and cook all the ingredients • Inputs or resources • Parents get together fish, fresh vegetables, water, barley, spices, pot, source of heat Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net

  5. But the real world is more dynamic First blind spot: Unintended results • Impact • Children are healthy adults • Outcome • Children consider the soup delicious and begin demanding fish soup weekly • Output • Children taste the most nourishing fish soup in the world • Activities • Mother or father carefully prepare and cook all the ingredients • Inputs or resources • Parents get together fish, fresh vegetables, water, barley, spices, pot, source of heat Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net

  6. First blind spot: Unintended results • Impact • Children are healthy adults • Outcome • Hog farmer goes out of business • Outcome • Children consider the soup delicious and begin demanding fish soup weekly • Outcome • Local library features great grandmother’s fish soup • Outcome • Other parents begin to use the fish soup recipe • Output • Children taste the most nourishing fish soup in the world • Outcome • Children invite friends for fish soup dinner • Outcome • Children learn how to cook great grandmother’s fish soup Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net

  7. Basic Logic Model Vision and Mission But when the real world is more complex IMPACT OUTCOMES OUTPUTS ACTIVITIES INPUTS Plan Time Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.org

  8. Vision and Mission OUTPUT OUTPUT OUTPUT ACTIVITY OUTPUT ACTIVITY OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME INPUTS ACTIVITY Plan OUTPUT Time INPUTS ACTIVITY INPUTS INPUTS

  9. 2nd and 3rd blind spots Alternative causes Multiple pathways • Outcome • Children consider the soup delicious and begin demanding fish soup weekly • Output • 1, 2, 3, 4 friends find the soup delicious • Output • Teacher preaches “fish is only flesh fit for human consumption” • Output • TV documentary on fish as antidote to obesity • Output • Children taste the most nourishing fish soup in the world

  10. In sum “The recent meta-evaluation of 340 USAID evaluation reports found that only 15% reported on unplanned effects, and only 10% discussed causes in addition to USAID interventions that might be contributing to results.” Complexity-aware monitoring can be a solution. Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net

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