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Risk Management Can We?

Risk Management Can We?. Presented by Dan C. Jones Clinical Assistant Professor University of Houston May 20, 2009 Energy Risk USA 2009. Lets see how well we have done. 1937- New London, Texas Natural Gas explosion is school over 200 killed

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Risk Management Can We?

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  1. Risk Management Can We? Presented by Dan C. Jones Clinical Assistant Professor University of Houston May 20, 2009 Energy Risk USA 2009

  2. Lets see how well we have done

  3. 1937- New London, Texas Natural Gas explosion is school over 200 killed Now use t-butyl mercaptan or thioplane

  4. 1989- Exxon Valdez Spilled 10.8 million gallon of crude of coast of Alaska, Prince William Sound Now require double hull crude carriers in all US ports March 2009 Korean vessel found a drilling rig lost after IKE, Double Hull prevented any spill

  5. 2004- Explosion BP plant Texas City Extensive damage. BP admitted fault but ignition came during recovery cycle but fatalities due to location of work trailers

  6. 2005- Hurricane Katrina & Rita • Failure of flood gates New Orleans • Inadequate wave clearance & offshore platforms for class 5 storm • Inadequate response FEMA

  7. 2008- Hurricane Ike Class 2 winds offshore Class 5 storm surge Galveston Bay and Trinity Bay Now referred to as Integrated Kinetic Energy over 2,000,000 million customers lost power. Unforeseen especially by CenterPoint.

  8. 1984- Bhopal India- Union Carbide pesticide plant 300 killed, thousands injured release of 42 tons of methyl isocyanate Plant was not following safety and operating guidelines of Union Carbide

  9. 1986 Chernobyl, Ukraine explosion released more than 400 times the radioactivity than with atomic bombing of Hiroshima Built a sarcophagus a cover for the reactor That and Three Mile Island incident stopped any nuclear construction, in US in 1970’s. Now 4 projects being considered in Texas

  10. 2002 Approved repository site in Yucca Mountain Nevada Operational 2010, to be sealed 2035 Repository in solid rock 1000 feet underground and on average 1000 feet above water table Holds 77000 metric tons of waste Plulonuim-239 has half life of 24000 years Cost $9 billion 2010 budget includes no funding for Yucca Mountain Present 100 nuclear plants-20% of electricity 30 plants in planning stage

  11. Asbestos- Alaska Pipe Line recognition Asbestosis and mesothelioma but was used in shipbuilding in 1940’s Used by the Ancient Greeks because of its soft and pliant properties- the miracle mineral Over 80 companies involved with asbestos have filed for chapter 11 beginning with Johns Mansville

  12. US Air Flight 1549 Sulley Sullenberger Airbus A 320-214 N10GUS

  13. 1988 North Sea- Piper Alpha Platform Explosion many workers killed platform severely damaged. Equipment stacked near crew quarters Due to economic effort for more production

  14. SEMPRA Energy Owners of San Diego Gas & Electric- SDGE 2007 Wildfires in California Have $1.1 billion tower of liability insurance on aggregate basis and now totally consumed.

  15. But in all my experience, I have never been in any accident… of any sort worth speaking about I have never seen but one vessel in distress in all my years at sea. I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end in any disaster of any sort.

  16. EJ Smith Captain-Titanic 1907

  17. We can add others not directly part of energy but which impact us all 9-11 2001 Enron 2001 AIG 2008 Banking system 2007-08 We do live in a risky world

  18. Retain and pay from internal funds • Control eliminate or minimize losses • Transfer usually by insurance but can include contractual transfer

  19. Insurance Buyer Insurance Manager Risk Manager Director of Risk Management Enterprise Risk Management Sustainability Risk Management

  20. Risks we have failed to manage Banks Investment Houses Merrill Lynch Lehman Bros Bear Stearns All from Sub prime Credit Crises Mortgage valued securities CDO’s- Collateralized Debt Obligations Credit Default Swaps AIG- a subject all its own

  21. ERM John Hampton- St Peters College COSO Failure

  22. New Risks Cyber Liability Gamma- Ray Burst Nanotechnology Somalia Pirates Global Warming

  23. http://www.houstonpress.com/

  24. Raises questions How do we? When do we start? Can it make a difference? Should we start with education?

  25. UH-GEMI: Founding Vision A premier human-capital supplier for the energy industry. A principal venue to join and develop issues of critical interest to the energy industry. A research partner for the industry.

  26. Major Educational Programs Undergraduate Global Energy Management (GEM) Program Graduate Energy Certificates China GEMBA program

  27. Global Energy Management (GEM) Program GEM-Professional Program (Option to do a 5 year BBA/MS in Finance) GEM-Track Global Energy Management Minor

  28. China GEMBA Program EMBA program in Beijing and Houston for Senior SINOPEC and CNPC Executives on leadership track Instruction by UH Faculty in Beijing; Students Come to Houston for a few courses & graduation

  29. GEMI Conferences & Workshops Energy Trading & Marketing Recent Trends in the Power Industry Petrochemicals & Refining Bio-fuels

  30. Risk Management Scholarships Bauer- Annual 3- Houston Marine Insurance Seminar 2- Local Chapter RIMS 4- Dedicated Endowments

  31. New Courses Carbon Trading- January 2009 EMBA Petroleum Engineering- Fall 2009 Degree Plan

  32. All of these sources provide us the energy we need to live our busy lives.

  33. Tier I John Gresham- The Associate Bermuda Monetary Authority

  34. Tier I- USA Texas – 3 UT, A&M, Rice California- 9 New York- 7 Research Funds $150 million plus

  35. Tier One Committees • National Competitiveness • Student Success • Community Involvement • Athletic Competitiveness • National and Local Recognition • Resource Competitiveness

  36. Tier One Contributions • 5,000+ new jobs • $129 million in wages to the regional economy • $7.5 million in additional state revenue • $202 million in local sales

  37. Insurance Regulation State Regulation Federal Regulation Optional Regulation Insurance CZAR Candidate Opinions

  38. Insurance Patriarchs Maurice (Hank) Greenberg Warren Buffet A third one as replacement

  39. Is ERM the answer? Is RMI education the answer? Can Tier I help this conundrum? Can insurances continue “business as usual”?

  40. Is the insurance market stable? Will the regulation applying to insurance, state vs. federal change? Will we have federal regulation? Will new leaders become known for the insurance industry?

  41. Summary We all have risks Our challenge is to finance the losses that occur Risk management is the art of selection of the method(s) to pay We cannot eliminate all risk nor should we

  42. Risk Assumption Assume risks that are comfortable and predictable Transfer those risks that could negatively impact your company Be mindful of the risk bearing capacity of your company There are limitations- one is Chapter 11

  43. BPApril 20, 2010 BP Blow out Maccando Blow out Deepwater Horizon Blow out Vessell - $575,000,000 11 deaths 17 injured

  44. Gulf Issues/Energy BP Pollution Liability Liability Force Majors Insurance No Insurance Available Limits Inspections Regulation

  45. Energy Insurance and Risk ManagementFinance 4397/7397 Professor Dan C. Jones C.T. Bauer College of Business

  46. Risk financing vs. Risk management • Risk and the world • As a society, always sought to reduce uncertainty-tribes/clans • Business but an extension and risk is at heart of ALL business operation • Decisions cross borders and industries-harm to stakeholders FINA 4397/7397

  47. Language of risk & insurance • Risk • Speculative risk • Pure risk • New term-enterprise risk • Management of Risks • A process • Identification and evaluation • Exploration of Techniques • Implementations and review • Current Risk management • Losses without gain • Holistic approach FINA 4397/7397

  48. Fundamentals of risk & uncertainty • Risk- variation of outcomes • Uncertainty- the doubt from inability to predict future (outcomes) • Arises from risk • Add managers and becomes complicated FINA 4397/7397

  49. Corporate demand for insurance • Risk managers assumed risk neutral • Assumption • Increasing wealth leads to inc. Satisfaction AND • Marginal utility constant as wealth increases • Individuals risk adverse but • Owners / shareholders are not • Investors require higher return if unable to diversify or systemic risk • CAPM theory FINA 4397/7397

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