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ERF-UNICEF Workshop Royal Orchid Sheraton Hotel, Bangkok Governance, Equity and Child Welfare in Africa Charles Abugre

ERF-UNICEF Workshop Royal Orchid Sheraton Hotel, Bangkok Governance, Equity and Child Welfare in Africa Charles Abugre. African Countries top the list of fastest growing economies in the world. More…. Poverty declining and GDP per capita almost tripped from the 1980s low

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ERF-UNICEF Workshop Royal Orchid Sheraton Hotel, Bangkok Governance, Equity and Child Welfare in Africa Charles Abugre

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  1. ERF-UNICEF WorkshopRoyal Orchid Sheraton Hotel, BangkokGovernance, Equity and Child Welfare in AfricaCharles Abugre

  2. African Countries top the list of fastest growing economies in the world

  3. More…. • Poverty declining and GDP per capita almost tripped from the 1980s low • HIV incidence has dropped by more than 25% • Significant progress rolling back TB and child deaths due to malaria and through vaccinations • Governance improving, electoral democracy spreading but post-conflict countries doing better in terms of legal/constitutional commitments for women’s political participation • Representation in parliament 27% (14%) • Anti-discrimination clauses in constns 93% (61%) • Gender responsive budget initiatives 50%(39%)

  4. But….. • School enrolment and performance, child and maternal health, nutrition levels notoriously biased against RURAL, POOR HHs, GIRLS/women • School completion rates of children declining • Exports – primary commodities dominant • Illicit capital outflows huge and accelerating • $1.8 trillion (1970-2008), 65% due to commercial reasons. Corruption – 10% or less

  5. Governance: the Terminology Governance: ‘the exercise of economic, political and administrative authority to manage a country’s affairs at all levels. This is typically related to level of development Good governance: A contestable concept. Applied to an institutional reform reform agenda rooted in minimising the state or using the state actively to expand the market, liberalise the economy, enforce property rights, minimise obligations of Corporations Democratic governance: mainly associated with UNDP to emphasize the importance of electoral democracy, participation, human development and human rights Development Governance: highlighted in UNCTAD’s 2009 LDC to contrast the GG agenda. It emphasizes the role of the state to use actively use policies to transform economies and re-orient national priorities without necessarily sacrificing human rights – e,g industrial and macroeconomic policies for growth and transformation. Natural resource governance: The management of natural resources in a manner as to harvest higher rents for economic development whilst minimising conflicts

  6. Implications of good development governnace • Capable economies • Capable institutions • Jobs • Effective and progressive tax systems • Effective, efficient and equitable spending • Capability to deliver services • Macroeconomic policies that are development oriented • Policy priorities that are human development-minded • Equity-minded

  7. Implications of child welfare • Incomes (especially of mothers) affect opportunities for children and wellbeing • Levels of education (especially of mothers) • General social conditions of families • Capable economies • Development governance orientation • Inequities affect child welfare directly and indirectly

  8. Inequality, development and child welfare • Longer growth spells are robustly associated with equality in income distribution more than other factors(IMF, Berg and Ostry). • Inequality (horizontal) is robustly associated with violent conflicts (Steward et al) and political instability • Inequality correlates strongly with financial crisis and volatility • Inequality facilitates illicit capital flows • Inequality reduces the poverty reducing impact of growth • Inequality reduces the efficiency of public expenditure

  9. Tracking inequalities • Factor shares • Income/consumption • Historical - gini • Deciles/quintiles • Spatial – assets, income, sercices • Gender, school progression • Literacy • Health • Gender - cross cutting • Factor incomes • asset gaps • GDI/HDI

  10. Inequalities- Historical

  11. 1990s

  12. Share by deciles, 2006,2007,2008, selected countries

  13. Spatial:Share of population in top and bottom quintile of the wealth distribution (47 counties) in Kenya (*) Source: KIHBS 2005

  14. Female Literacy and Gender Disparity (47 counties) in Kenya (*) Source: KIHBS 2005 *Female literacy as a share of male literacy

  15. Asset inequalities, rural/urban

  16. Gender Asset Gaps (Ghana, 2011)

  17. Female Literacy and Gender Disparity (47 counties) in Kenya (*) Source: KIHBS 2005 *Female literacy as a share of male literacy

  18. Implications for Resource allocation: Case of Kenya • Disparities in Human development • Gender • Spatial differentiation in levels of poverty and human development • Other

  19. Budget allocations with reinforced equity: current allocations versus estimated allocations by county - Kenya (*) *New Allocation: 50% primary school age children in school, 20% primary school age children out of school, 20% poverty gap, 5% counties less than 0.95 female to male ratio and 5% for ASAL counties

  20. The Gender Inequality Index (GII)

  21. Implications for growth strategy

  22. CRA,HDI and GDI – All counties

  23. Getting growth right • When right, there is a positive feedback between GROWTH and DEVELOPMENT IN HUMAN RIGHTS TERMS. • Growth is good for HR when it is sustained over time, is broad-based and equitable. Inequity reduces length of growth episodes, undermines growth itself and undermines HRs • But where do we focus first? DEVELOPMENT AND RIGHTS

  24. Getting growth and human development balance right

  25. Growth strategies • Inclusive, broad-based, dynamic • Productivity in small scale agriculture – Ghana, Burkina and Ethiopia • Labour intensive – maximising the demographic dividend – Ethiopia and Rwanda • Value added services – harnessing mobile telephony, Kenya, Rwanda • Maximising share of natural resource rents and adding value, Botswana • The tax system • Making regional integration work for small businesses • Production based social protection • Towards universal social services, eye on the poorest

  26. Key issues for child welfare • Getting growth right – for employment and revenues to expand and sustain social expenditures – addressing underdevelopment • Addressing multiple inequalities. • Women’s rights and gender equality – the child’s opportunities and wellbeing tied to the social conditions of their mother and other social determinants • A human rights based approach to managing budgets – sensitive to human freedoms • More than growth – the structure of growth matters, growth with human development • Progressive realisation • Maximum available resources • Non-retrogression • Minimum core obligations/minimum essential levels • Non-discrimination and Equality • Participation, transparency, accountability

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