Laury Miller, Eric Leuliette & John Lillibridge NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry

1. The NOAA Satellite Altimetry Program: Closing the Sea Level Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace Laury Miller, Eric Leuliette & John Lillibridge NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry Silver Spring, MD OCO Annual Meeting Silver Spring, MD September 3 - 5, 2008

2. Program Objectives • Create a Sea Level Climate Record -- Transition T/P-Jason series to full operational status • Jason-2/OSTM - 2008 - NOAA/NASA/CNES/EUMETSAT • Jason-3 - 2013? & Beyond - NOAA/EUMETSAT • Observe & Understand the Sea Level Budget -- • Need budget in order to understand processes responsible for sea level rise, decadal & inter-annual variability. • Need sustained program of Jason, Argo, GRACE, and tide gauge observations. • Improve IPCC Projections of Sea Level Rise • If models fail to accurately predict the past 15 years of SLR, what good are they for making 50-100 year predictions?

3. Jason-2/OSTM Launch June 20, 2008 • 4-Partner Mission: NASA, CNES, NOAA & EUMETSAT. • Currently operating in tandem mode, flying 50 seconds behind Jason-1 on same ground track. • 3 hr OGDR’s available to OST Science Team and NOAA operational users via DDS. • 1-2 day IGDR’s (better orbits, pass segmented) available via CLASS. • Nov. 2008 -- OGDR’s available to public via CLASS • Apr-May 2009 -- IGDR’s & GDR’s available to public via CLASS • NOAA Project Scientist -- John Lillibridge • NOAA’s first operational oceanographic satellite!

4. NASA/JPL J-2/OSTM System Overview Jason 2 Usingen Wallops/ Fairbanks NOAA EUMETSAT CNES

5. Jason-1 Jason-2 Excellent agreement between J-2 & J-1 • J-2 reached exact-repeat orbit 04-Jul-2008. • Near real time products from NOAA & EUMETSAT since 22-July 2008. • Offline products from CNES since 22-Aug-2008.

6. Jason-3 … Joint NOAA & EUMETSAT project Proposed 2010 Start, 2013 Launch for Overlap with J-2/OSTM

7. Objective: Create Ocean Equivalent of CO2 ClimateRecord Atmospheric CO2 At Mauna Loa 50+ Years Global Sea Level From Topex/Jason 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 15+ Years

8. Observe & Understand the Sea Level Budget

9. NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/

10. NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/

11. NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/

12. NOAA/LSA Altimeter Calibration Website (Under Development)

13. Improve the IPCC Projections of Sea Level Rise

14. The Problem: How accurate are the IPCC projections? Satellite altimetry The additional land-ice uncertainty Reconstructed record from tide gauges Model projection Observed rise at the upper limit of IPCC TAR projection that includes a “land-ice uncertainty” Rahmstorf et al., Science, 2007

15. IPCC FAR Projections Probably Not Much Better Model Global Mean Sea Level Trends During TP-era, (1990-2000)Based onFAR Climate of the 20th Century Scenario (20C3M). ModelGMSLStericRatio (mm/yr) (mm/yr) CGCM3.1 0.32 0.79 2.47 GISS AOM 6.11 3.51 0.57 GISS E20/Russell 1.99 0.72 0.36 INMCM3.0 1.34 1.38 1.03 MIROC3.2 hires 2.71 2.32 0.85 MRI CGCM23.2 3.98 5.69 1.42 (Leuliette et al., 2006)

16. Suggestion: NOAA Obs/Model Program to Improve Projections of Sea Level Rise • Model projections don’t agree well with 15+ year altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections. • Many elements already exist in NOAA or are heavily supported by NOAA, including Jason altimetry (a new NOAA operational responsibility), tide gauges, Argo floats, and modeling capabilities. • Possible broad agency involvement: OAR, NESDIS, NOS • Topic for OAR/NESDIS workshop in late September

19. Model projections don’t agree very well with 15+ year altimeter record either globally or regionally. Need to improve models to have confidence in long term projections. • Many elements already exist in NOAA or are heavily supported by NOAA, including Jason altimetry (a new NOAA operational responsibility), tide gauges, Argo floats, and modeling capabilities. • Possible broad agency involvement: OAR (OCO, GFDL, PMEL, AOML), NESDIS(STAR/LSA,NODC/OCL), NOS • Topic for OAR/NESDIS workshop in late September

20. Altimetry Now Used In Hurricane Intensity Forecasting

21. Geosat/Tide Gauge Comparison: Old Orbits vs New Orbits ERM GM

22. Jason-2vs Jason-1 Coverage J2 better radiometer coverage • Tandem mode - J2 (cycle 2) flying 50 seconds behind J1(cycle 241) on same ground track. • Altimeter range measurement: J2 nearly 100% over land & ocean; J1 missing over land and near (<20 km) coasts. • Sea level anomaly (sla): J1 & J2 coverage lose mostly due to radiometer rain/ice corruption flag

25. Jason-2 Jason-1 Sea Level Anomaly (cm) Sea Level Anomaly (cm) (Courtesy of J. Lillibridge - NOAA Project Scientist) Sponsor: NOAA, NASA, CNES, & EUMETSAT Jason-2/OSTM Cal/Val & Data Release J-2 reached exact-repeat orbit 04-Jul-2008. Near real time (OGDR) products from NOAA & EUMETSAT since 22-July 2008. Offline (IGDR) products from CNES released to SWT on 22-Aug-2008. Significance: NOAA's role in OSTM/Jason-2 includes satellite command/control, NRT data production, and archive & distribution. This mission assures continuity of the 15 year global sea level climate data record begun by Topex & Jason-1, with sufficient overlap for cross calibration and validation. http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/idm/2008/jul-2008-jason-2-on-the-tracks-of-jason-1/index.html

26. Coastal Satellite Altimetry • Altimeter measurements of sea surface height (SSH), significant wave height (SWH), and wind speed have many potential applications in coastal zones, despite the common perception that altimetry does not “work” near coast. • The Problem: Altimeter data processing typically optimized for open ocean applications. Coastal sampling, editing and correction issues need to be addressed…e.g. • Use of 10 hz along track sampling instead of 1 hz • Data flagging optimized for coasts instead of open ocean. • Path length corrections optimized to minimize land contamination • Improved near-shore tide models • The Solution: collaborative programs aimed at improving measurements and developing products. The Europeans are far ahead of the U.S. in this area.

27. NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/

28. Create a Climate Record of Sea Level --Transition T/P-Jason series to operational statusJason-2/OSTM - 2008 - NOAA/NASA/CNES/EUMETSATJason-3 - 2013? & Beyond - NOAA/EUMETSATObserve & Understand the Sea Level Budget --Need budget in order to understand processes responsible for sea level rise, decadal variability, etc.Need sustained program of Jason, Argo, GRACE, and tide gauge observations.Improve IPCC Projections of Sea Level RiseIf models fail to accurately predict the past 15 years of SLR, what good are they for making 50-100 year predictions?

30. Climate Monitoring Requires Foresight & Commitment Atmospheric CO2 At Mauna Loa 50+ Years Global Sea Level From Topex/Jason 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 15+ Years

31. AR4 Model-based Projections of Sea Level Rise • Note: • No upper bound • No likelihood • No best estimate • Model-based estimate only; no expert judgment (meters) From: AR4 WGI SPM Courtesy of Ron Stouffer, GFDL/NOAA

33. 15+ Year (1993-2008) Altimeter Trends in Sea Level