SCO & IRAN: Iranian Security Dream Abbas Maleki

1. SCO & IRAN:Iranian Security DreamAbbas Maleki The 14h International Conference on Central Asia and the Caucasus" Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Prospects and Opportunities"Tehran, October 30-31, 2006

2. SCO and its successes • War against Terrorism • Ethnic Violence • Narcotics • Border Conflicts • Challenges to unipolar system

3. SCO and its failures • Disability on playing world class role • Lack of consensus on political development • Strengthening of authoritarian regimes • Expansion of radicalism, separatism

4. What is Iran’s goal to join SCO? • Islamic Revolution’s perception on convergent activities • Strengthening Iran’s geopolitical role • Looking to the East • Reduce US treats against Iran • More economic ties with Russia, China and India • Integrated Energy Market in Asia

5. Islamic Revolution’s perception on convergent activities • Mahdaviat: Doctrine of Hope in Shi’ia, United World Order in Future • The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes clear Iran’s preferences in foreign policy. (1) Iran’s neighbours; (2) Muslim countries; (3) Third World countries; (4) countries that furnish political, economic, social and/or military needs of Iran.

6. Islamic Revolution’s perception on convergent activities (2) • In search of ways to expand its interests, Tehran looked towards cooperation with neighbors, with other nearby and Muslim states • Iran became a major player in regional and International organizations as ECO OIC OPEC SCO D8

7. Iran and Initiated Regional Organization • Persian States Countries: Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan • Caspian Cooperation Organization: Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan • Shi’a Nations Rim: 1-Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain 2-Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon, Afghanistan

8. Strengthening Iran’s geopolitical role Iran’s Subregions: • Middle East • Persian Gulf • South West Asia • Central Asia, Caucasus, and Afghanistan • Caspian Basin

9. Middle East Sub Region

10. Asian Identity

11. Iran’s advantages • Iran’s geographical position, • culture • Political hierarchy • Economic stature • Military muscle give it the potential to play a leading or pivotal role in a number of regional configurations: -Persian Gulf -Central Asia -Caspian Basin

12. What can Iran do? • Critical tools: • Dialogue with other nations • Economic and technological advancement; • Regional positioning; • Iran‘s response in foreign relations has mainly focused on 3 levels; • Consolidating Iran‘s regional position and relations In Middle East • Deepening the relations with the European Union as a leverage against potential future US domination in the region; • Seeking a new strategic relationship with Asian Countries

13. Looking to the East Iran has • 1% of the world’s population, • 7% of the world’s natural reserves including -10% of the global proven oil reserves -16% of the world’s natural gas resources. 130 b barrel oil (17 billion tons) 27 trillion cm gaswhich means $3000 billions

14. Energy resource periphery Energy demand heartland

16. Reduce US treats against Iran

17. Iran’s Neighbors in the day of event • US full control: -Afghanistan -Azerbaijan -Qatar -Bahrain • Russian group: -Russia -Turkmenistan -Armenia • US semi control: -Iraq -Saudi Arabia -Kuwait -UAE -Oman -Pakistan -Turkey -Kazakhstan

18. US Pressures • Iran was using the game of showing to shift from one super power to another during bipolar system • US did not desire to see Iran as Iranistan • After US-Iraq war in 1991 and collapse of Soviet Union in 1992, US shifted its policy against Iran: Dual Containment ILSA Rogue States Axis of evils Nuclear Pariah • UNSC Sanctions

19. Can SCO help Iran to manage its challenges? Conceptual Challenges in Iran’s Foreign Relations: • Iran-US Relations • Iran-EU Relations • Oil price • Treaty of Friendship between Iran and Iraq (1975) • Iran’s share of Hirmand River • 3 Iranian Islands in Persian Gulf • Caspian legal regime

20. Iranian “Allies” in US-Iran Context • China • Economic not political relations; not bought and paid for • As a mater of general policy, opposes sanctions, but… • Believes Iran should not ‘push’ the issue • Russia • Opportunism • Iranian mistrust

21. SCO and Lonely Iran • Iran is a unique state in this region with “Strategic Loneliness”. • This fact is encouraging Iran to think how would be more secure in individual manner.

22. SCO and Middle East security • No common understanding or framework of security, divergent interests • US strategic presence in Asia and its impact: - Historically polarising - US military umbrella for GCC - From indirect to direct hegemony - Containment (encirclement) of Iran

23. Potential future Scenarios, Can SCO support Iran? • Iraq instability continues • US-Iran confrontation escalates into conflict • Unpredicted radical change in a GCC state • US withdraws from Iraq: • Civil war erupts, violence spreads in the region, or • International community steps in to help stabilise Iraq

24. Thank youmaleki@caspianstudies.com

25. Four Iran Historic Compromises with its Neighbors • Iran-Soviet Russia Friendship Treaty, 1921 • Iran-UK MOU on situation of Abu Musa Island in Persian Gulf, 1971 • Iran-Iraq Treaty on Friendship and Governmental Borders, 1975 • Iran-Afghanistan Agreement on the portion of Hirmand Waters, 1976

27. Regional Challenge: Caspian Sea Legal Regime Persian Gulf States Iraq Afghanistan Historical Compromise: Iran-Soviet Russia Friendship Treaty, 1921 Iran-UK MOU on situation of Abu Musa Island in Persian Gulf, 1971 Iran-Iraq Treaty on Friendship and Governmental Borders, 1975 Iran-Afghanistan Agreement on the portion of Hirmand Waters, 1976 Iran’s Regional Foreign Policy