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Global Climate Change: Understanding the Past and Planning for the Future

Dive into the scientific basis for climate change, human impact on warming, and strategies for action. Explore key data and projections, emphasizing the urgency for mitigation and adaptation to address global challenges.

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Global Climate Change: Understanding the Past and Planning for the Future

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  1. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

  2. Global Climate Change: How We Got Here, and What Do We Do Now? Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Director, Climate Science Initiative Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Natural Resource Ecology and Management 120 Iowa State University 21 April 2008 CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

  3. Outline • Scientific basis for climate change • Why we are confident that the that humans are responsible for a large measure of the current warming • What do we do now? • What should you do? • What should ISU do? CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERITY

  4. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source:Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

  5. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source:Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years Natural cycles

  6. IPCC Third Assessment Report

  7. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2007 380 ppm

  8. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2050 550 ppm

  9. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” 950 ppm

  10. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” 950 ppm ?

  11. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gifhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

  12. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

  13. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

  14. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  15. El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018 Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

  16. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

  17. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gifhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

  18. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

  19. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Natural cycles

  20. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural

  21. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

  22. Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  23. Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  24. Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  25. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  26. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  27. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W) R. Seager, et al., 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184

  28. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W) R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184

  29. Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771

  30. Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771

  31. Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771

  32. Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models 2005 Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771

  33. Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models 2005 2007 Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771

  34. Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models 2005 2007 Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771

  35. Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models 2005 2007 Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771

  36. Sunset over the Arctic. (Credit: Jeremy Harbeck)

  37. Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) • Longer frost-free period (high) • Higher average winter temperatures (high) • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) • More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) • More (~10%) precipitation (medium) • More variability of summer precipitation (high) • More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) • Higher episodic streamflow (medium) • Longer periods without rain (medium) • Higher absolute humidity (high) • Stronger storm systems (medium) • Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by modelsNo current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

  38. What To Do Now

  39. What To Do Now • Mitigation • Become active politically • National level - examine candidate platforms • Demand that state and local organizations examine carbon emissions • Examine personal choices • Home energy use • Auto type and use • Purchase of “stuff”

  40. What To Do Now • Mitigation • Become active politically • National level - examine candidate platforms • Demand that state and local organizations examine carbon emissions • Examine personal choices • Home energy use • Auto type and use • Purchase of “stuff” • Adaptation • Stay informed of the best science on climate change for the Midwest • Encourage public and private investment in sustainable and resilient practices and infrastructure

  41. What To Do Now • Mitigation • Become active politically • National level - examine candidate platforms • Demand that state and local organizations examine carbon emissions • Examine personal choices • Home energy use • Auto type and use • Purchase of “stuff” • Adaptation • Stay informed of the best science on climate change for the Midwest • Encourage public and private investment in sustainable and resilient practices and infrastructure • Consider preparing for a career relating to problems of climate change

  42. What To Do Now • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program • ISU Climate Science Initiative • Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA) (proposed to NOAA) CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY CLIMATE SCIENCE INITIATIVE, IOWA STATE UNIVERITY

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