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Presidential Primaries:

Presidential Primaries:. How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins. Presidential Primaries:. Or, Who won Iowa & then the GOP Nomination. How it used to work. National nominating conventions Selection of delegates controlled by party officials

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Presidential Primaries:

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  1. Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, andWeird Rules Determine Who Wins

  2. Presidential Primaries: Or, Who won Iowa & then the GOP Nomination

  3. How it used to work • National nominating conventions • Selection of delegates controlled by party officials • Many / most delegates uncommitted

  4. Example. 1960 • Kennedy vs. Nixon • To gain party nomination, JFK had to convince party leaders he could win • Entered West Virginia primary election • “Real” choice made inside the national convention meeting

  5. Before 1972 • Most states did not have public primary or caucus • In 1960, only 25% of delegates to convention selected by voters • By 2000 70 - 85% selected by voters and bound to candidate on 1st ballot at convention

  6. Today Primaries or Caucuses • Primary = vote “directly” for candidate (or for delegates pledged to a candidate). • Caucus = vote at a public meeting to elect delegates

  7. The Demise of Nominating Conventions • Old system failed to reflect what voters wanted (sometimes) • Gave “too much” control to party leaders • Party leaders had to worry about finding a candidate that they could work with

  8. Chicago, 1968 • Incumbent President was LB Johnson • Vietnam War in 4th year: • Tet Offensive, 31 Jan 1968 • New Hampshire Primary, March 1968 • McCarthy 42% • LBJ 49% LBJ wins, but.... • RFK enters race days latter • G. Wallace saying he’ll runs as 3rd Party

  9. Chicago, 1968 • LBJ drops out of 1968 race in March 1968 • Vice President HHH says he’ll run • Primaries & Delegates prior to convention: • RFK won 4 258 delegates • McCarthy won 5 393 delegates • HHH didn't run 561 delegates

  10. Chicago 1968 • RFK assassinated June 1968 • Convention in August: video

  11. Chicago, 1968 • Democratic Convention Vote: HHH 1759 McCarthy 601 McGovern 146 Philips 67 Moore 17

  12. After Chicago • Democrats split, lose to Nixon • Rule of ‘party bosses’ challenged by McCarthy, McGovern • Reform commission established • State laws changed

  13. Post 1968 Reforms • New Nomination Rules: • most delegates must be selected by voters • but how? • caucuses with open participation • primaries, with candidates on ballot • Proportionality (Democrats) • maximize women & minorities at Dem convention

  14. Post 1968 reforms • What is a political party? • voters? • elected officials? • elites in party organization (DNC, RNC)?

  15. Since 1972 • National parties kept tinkering with rules: • how award state’s delegates? • winner take all? • proportional to voter support? • PLEOS? • who can participate • only registered partisans? • independents • what schedule, when start? • March, then February, then January...

  16. 1972 - 2008 • The Carter Model • outsider candidate ‘beats’ party establishment • Gary Hart ‘84; John McCain 2000; Obama ‘08 • The Mondale/Clinton/Bush/Romney Model • Super-delegates (PLEOs) • from 75% voter selected to 54% • Frontloading and Super Tuesdays

  17. Frontloading

  18. Frontloading • 1976, 12 weeks until 50% of all delegates awarded • 2008, 4 weeks until 50% of all delegates awarded

  19. Differences Dems vs. Republicans • Schedules • Dems tougher on penalties for jumping the gun • Proportionality • A Democratic thing; GOP was winner take all • Super Delegates • A Democratic thing • Republicans more predictable • Democrats = chaos

  20. To summarize • Party Conventions used to pick nominees • Voters in primaries / caucuses now pick • Primary / caucus rules matter • what state goes first? • how allocate delegates?

  21. Iowa, 2012: RCP poll average • Romney 23% • Paul 22% • Santorum 16% • Gingrich 14% • Perry 12% • Bachman 7%

  22. Iowa, ‘predicted’ result: • Romney 28% • Paul 18% • Santorum 15% • Gingrich 15% • Perry 9% • Bachmann whatever…

  23. Expectations • What do pre-Iowa poll results reflect? • What is expected, given these results? • By whom? • What if candidate fails to meet expectations?

  24. Iowa, 2012: Result • Santorum 25%* • Romney 25% • Paul 21% • Gingrich 13% • Perry 10% • Bachman 5%

  25. Iowa, 2012 • Why so much attention? • 2008 165 stories on CNN • 2008 160 stories on ABC • 2008 900 AP stories • 2008 380 stories NYT • 2012: 40+ NYT stories by Dec 24th 2011

  26. Iowa, 2012 • What effects of Iowa this year? • Who stays in race? • Who drops out? • Did any other state play this role? • Why Iowa?

  27. Iowa, 2012 • Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa? • Bachmann – dead.

  28. Iowa, 2012 • Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa? • Perry – dead.

  29. Iowa, 2012 • Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa? • Newt – walking dead.

  30. Beating expectations:

  31. Media Shift, 2012 after IA • Romney 33% pre, 37% post • Paul 20% pre, 17% post • Gingrich 20% pre, 11% post • Perry 9% pre, 7% post • Bachman 7% pre, 3% post • Santorum 9% pre, 21% post • Huntsman 2% pre, 2% post

  32. Beating expectations • Would Santorum have been known w/o Iowa? • Huckabee? • Would Obama have beat Clinton?

  33. So, what role Iowa? • Winnowing field of candidates • Defining frontrunner • Killed Romney ‘08, made Obama ‘08… • Influence what happens in NH?

  34. So, Why Iowa? • What if different state went first? • What if same-day national primary? • Regional primaries?

  35. Why Iowa? • Benefits of sequential elections • Learning?

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