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World Trade Indicators 2008 worldbank/wti2008

World Trade Indicators 2008 http://www.worldbank.org/wti2008. Gianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam Singapore, July 18 th , 2008. What is the WTI Project?. Comprehensive database of trade-related indicators of policy and performance Yearly data from 1995-2007 (thanks to ITC for 2005-07))

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World Trade Indicators 2008 worldbank/wti2008

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  1. World Trade Indicators 2008http://www.worldbank.org/wti2008 Gianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam Singapore, July 18th, 2008

  2. What is the WTI Project? • Comprehensive database of trade-related indicators of policy and performance • Yearly data from 1995-2007 (thanks to ITC for 2005-07)) • Information on other trade databases and links • Online Tool • Country rankings (default and customized) • Charts, tables, and maps (default and customized) • Users can choose time periods and country groups • 210 Country Trade-at-a-Glance (TAAG) tables • 139 Country briefs • Overview report

  3. Why? • Provide impetus for trade policy changes by highlighting performance relative to competitors/partners • Support trade negotiations and policy design by facilitating overtime and cross-country comparison of different dimensions of policy affecting trade outcomes • Highlight gaps in the data

  4. Has Some New Indicators • Database assembles existing information and provides new indicators • Production weighted tariff averages • Share of tariff lines with a zero MFN tariff rate • MFN zero duty imports and exports • Imports and exports to/from partners in FTA and CUs • Utilization rates and value of EU and US preferences • Extent of services trade liberalization commitments • Index of import concentration from UNCTAD • Export and import destination concentraton indices • Share of top 5 exports in total exports

  5. Structure of WTI database: organizing for users

  6. WTI Functionalities • Views (see handout) • Country Rankings • Country Snapshots • Country Comparisons • Overtime Comparisons • Map

  7. Ranking by trade policy I: 2006, top 20, MFN TTRI

  8. Ranking by trade policy II: 2007, top 20, MFNApplied2007 Tariff Average 2006 importweighted

  9. Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, top 20, equal weights

  10. Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, top 20 developing, equal weights

  11. Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, bottom 20 all, equal weights

  12. Tariffs have been falling, but remain high in low-income countries and SAS, MNA, and SSA. Singapore has close to zero tariffs.MFN tariff, import weighted

  13. In agriculture most countries are more protectionist, esp. EAP, SAS, MNA, Hi-OECD. Singapore’s agric. tariffs are among lowest. MFN tariff, import weighted, agriculture

  14. Some countries increased their tariffs in recent years(but not Madagascar)

  15. Services trade commitments vary among countries: ECA and Hi-OECD stand out at top. SSA is at bottom.

  16. SAS exports face highest tariff barriers; MNA’s, ECA’s, Singapore’s among lowestROW applied tariff, export weighted

  17. A high share of exports is MFN duty free, especially for Singapore

  18. Trade agreements are important for many countries, esp. Singapore, but less so for low-income countriesShare of Exports to preferential partners, %

  19. Value of EU and US preferences vary from almost nil (as for Singapore) to modest, even for most LDCsas a % of bilateral exports

  20. Most country groups had substantial real trade growth, but low-income countries’ and Singapore’s slowed down in 2007Real growth of trade (g+s, %)

  21. 180.7 MYS GUY SWZ BEL GNQ LSO ARE EST BHR MLT TJK SVK Merchandise Trade Integration, 1995-2006 BLR TKM SUR IRL NLD HUN AGO CZE MDA COG SYC LUX THA VNM SVN MNG PNG BGR MDV LTU MNE TTO TWN JOR BRN PHL MUS KHM OMN MKD NAM QAT BWA BIH UKR CRI SLB TUN BLZ KGZ HND LVA TGO GHA GAB KWT AUT DOM DMA ZWE LKA VCT BTN ATG MAC YEM MRT HRV CIV LBY CAN LCA KNA KAZ GRD CHE NGA SWE ROM ARM KOR JAM NIC SRB FIN SAU DNK ZMB ISR MEX SLV AZE BRB PRY GNB IDN SYR MWI PRT MLI TCD DZA DEU NOR SEN CHL ISL UZB AFG LBN LAO POL VUT MAR CYP ECU RUS CPV NZL MOZ ZAF BHS ZAR CHN TUR VEN BEN FRA GTM DJI KEN GBR ESP BOL ITA ALB IRN MDG GEO NPL NER HTI PAN URY CMR BGD TZA UGA BFA PAK AUS BDI BMU ETH PER COL SDN 18.4 GRC CAF ARG EGY IND RWA JPN USA BRA 0 10 20 30 Applied Simple Average Tariff, 1995-2006 Searching for global patterns: countries with lower tariffs have higher merchandise trade integration

  22. Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate are more integrated

  23. CHN TWN 80 PHL KOR CZE JPN DEU SVN MEX HUN HKG CHE ITA FIN POL PAK ROM SGP MYS THA SWZ BEL FRA 60 SWE AUT ISR MKD LKA USA UKR NLD TUN PRT IRL ESP GBR CAN EST CRI TUR JOR TGO ZAF BLR BRA IND Manufacture share in export, 2005-06 LTU VNM BIH ARM NAM DNK BGR LVA SLV IDN 40 MUS MAR GTM HRV COL MDG GEO KNA JAM ARG KGZ URY TTO LUX NZL GHA MDA 20 DMA AUS GRC SYR HND RUS CIV GUY PER FJI NOR PRY ALB MNG NER EGY ISL KAZ ATG CPV CHL UGA AZE TZA GMB NIC ECU BOL SAU VEN BEN PAN ZMB MOZ GRD LCA SYC BLZ BDI OMN VCT YEM MDV SDN 0 0 50 100 150 200 Doing Business Rank, 2005-06 Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate have higher manufacturing shares

  24. 100 AGO IRQ GNQ VEN STP FSM NGA COG SDN YEM GAB LBY IRN 80 ABW BHR MLI SAU MRT GNB SLB BWA OMN HTI BRN NCL KWT VUT GIN WSM MDV ATG SYC JAM ZMB TJK TKM BDI BMU KAZ DZA BEN 60 QAT SLE BFA AZE MOZ MWI SUR RWA COM KNA ECU CPV GMB NER ARE CMR SYR NOR CAF BHS MMR MLT MNG LSO ETH ZAR TON KIR SWZ TTO BGD ISL 40 DMA BLZ BOL PNG PAN TZA ISR CHL KHM PHL BTN RUS PRY VCT GHA EGY GRD LCA LAO CIV ARM GUY TMP KGZ MAC NAM BLR CUB FJI MUS TGO TUR UZB ALB HND ADO SGP BRB NIC UGA PER IRL PAK CYP ZWE VNM MDA SEN LKA URY COL LTU CRI ERI KEN DJI MDG 20 MYS GEO AUS FIN TUN MKD TWN GTM DOM KOR MAR EST HKG MEX JOR ZAF LUX NPL UKR JPN BIH CHE IND SLV BGR HUN SVK NZL ARG IDN LBN CAN ROM LVA SWE HRV SVN GRC GBR CHN ESP BEL SRB PRK CZE THA DEU BRA PRT NLD POL FRA DNK USA AUT ITA 0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 WGI-Regulatory Quality, 2005-06 Searching for global patterns: countries with better regulatory quality have stronger export diversification Export Concentration Index, 2005-06

  25. Searching for global patterns: countries with more diversified exports have lower export growth volatility (00-06)

  26. Trade Policy: MFN TTRI 2006Singapore’s rank is 1st of 125

  27. External Environment: MA-TTRI (incl. preferences), 2006Singapore’s rank is 43rd of 125

  28. Institutional Environment: Ease of Doing Business, 2007Singapore’s rank is 1st of 178

  29. BRIICS’ Trade Facilitation: Logistics Performance Index 2006Singapore’s rank is 1st of 151

  30. BRIICS’ Trade Outcome:Real Trade Growth, 2007Singapore’s rank is 80th of 160

  31. Global patterns and trends: summary findings • Tariff protection, with or without the inclusion of preferences, has fallen in all regions and income groups from the mid-1990s to 2007 • In low income countries, it fell by over 45%. • High income countries still have lowest averages, but they have higher nontariff barriers, greater tariff escalation and dispersion, and much higher maximum tariffs than low-income countries. These barriers are especially high in areas of export interest to developing countries, esp. agric & garments. • Barriers to services trade are still high, especially in low-income but also in middle income countries.

  32. Global patterns and trends: summary findings (cont.) • There is a significant gap in the quality of trade facilitation between high-income and developing countries, but South Africa is 24th and China 30th of 150. • Countries whose institutional environments are better tend to have a higher share of manufactures in their goods exports, have lower export concentration, and tend to be more integrated in the world economy. • Over the past decade, countries with lower barriers have tended to have stronger, more consistent trade and export performance

  33. Singapore’s TAAG: summary findings • Best overall trade policy regime, thanks to a virtually duty free tariff schedule, but… • substantial tariffs on some agricultural imports • high non-tariff restrictions (at least as of 2001) • weak services trade liberalization commitments • High openness of foreign markets • Best business environment and trade facilitation • Solid trade/export growth in recent years, but… • little change in merch/services export structure • some increase in export product concentration • halving of growth in 2007

  34. Next Steps • Improve website functionalities • Online-only update of WTI 2008 database and TAAGs by December 2008 • Produce WTI 2009 database, ranking tool, TAAGs, briefs, and overview report by September 2009 • http://www.worldbank.org/wti or • http://www.worldbank.org/trade or • http://worldbank.org/wbi

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